Far-left activist groups like the Human Rights Campaign are already calling on Democrats to pass pro-transgender legislation like the Equality Act. But a closer look at the 2026 election results would caution the incoming congressional majorities against interpreting the election as a mandate to do so. Although American voters elected Democrats in overwhelming numbers, voters in Democrat-controlled states still voted against transgender extremism.

The facts of this issue dawn slowly, as the relevant states count ballots slowly. Still, at 9:14 p.m. on Wednesday, the Associated Press decided there was enough information, with 68% of votes counted, to declare that Washington voters had chosen to restrict participation in school sports by biological sex by approving Ballot Measure 638.

According to the official ballot title, “this measure would prohibit students it defines as ‘biologically male’ from competing in certain school athletic activities intended for female students only. It would require verification of biological sex by students’ healthcare providers.”

Washington voters were asked, “Should this measure be enacted into law?” Thus far, 1,252,863 voters (56.6%) have voted “yes,” while 961,810 voters (43.4%) have voted “no.” That’s a lead of 290,000 votes (or 13.2% of the total votes cast), with two-thirds of the ballots already counted.

The dominant popularity of Measure 638 is evident from the county breakdown. The “no” votes hold a majority in only three of Washington’s 39 counties, and even in those counties the margins are relatively close. In far-north Whatcom (home to Bellingham, Wash.), “no” votes lead 50.6% to 49.4%. In King County (Seattle), “no” votes lead 57.2% to 42.8%; this county’s large population is the only reason the contest even took this long to determine. And, in sparsely-populated Jefferson County, “no” votes lead 57.5% to 42.5%.

In the other 36 counties, a majority of Washington voters preferred to protect girls’ sports. That includes counties with other large cities, including Snohomish (Everett), Pierce (Tacoma), Thurston (Olympia), Clark (Vancouver), Benton (Richland), and Spokane (Spokane).

When the suburbs of Seattle and Portland are voting against a transgender policy item, Democratic politicians would be wise to pay attention.

The vote was not some conservative fluke, where Washingtonians zigged right while the country zagged left. The very same Washington voters rejected Measure 645, which would have repealed the state’s millionaire tax, by a margin of 57.9% to 42.1%. Washington voters remain their usual progressive selves, but allowing confused boys to compete in girls’ sports is one wilderness trail they refused to hike.

Meanwhile, Arizona voters approved Ballot Proposition 318, which protected both girls’ sports and girls’ locker rooms. According to its title, it “requires all schools and athletic associations to designate athletic teams as male, female, or coed based on the biological sex of the athletes as defined at birth; [and] prohibits these entities from authorizing use of private spaces not designated for a person’s sex.”

As of Thursday, Arizona voters favored the proposition 58.9% to 41.1%, with an estimated 86.4% of the vote recorded (enough to make the outcome mathematically certain). While Arizona is less solidly Democratic than Washington state, it has grown steadily bluer; the same preliminary election results show Democrats flipping both legislative chambers to give them a governing trifecta in January.

Once again, the widespread appeal of the proposition is apparent at the county level. In only one of Arizona’s 15 counties did “no” votes outnumber “yes” votes. In Cococino County (Flagstaff), 54.1% of voters voted “no,” compared to 45.9% of voters who voted “yes.” Even this result defied partisan odds, as 61% of the county usually votes for Democrats.

A third western state offered voters the chance to protect girls’ sports on the ballot, and there the outcome appears to be closer. In deep-blue Colorado, with 87% of the votes recorded as of Thursday, the outcome of two transgender-related ballot measures remain too close to call.

Colorado Proposition 134 would:

• “require that all elementary through collegiate school-based athletic teams and sports be designated as male-only or female-only based on biological sex, unless the team or sport is designated as open to participation by individuals of any sex or gender;
• “require schools and school districts to implement policies to ensure that students are assigned to gender-designated teams that align with their biological sex; and
• “prohibit investigations of, or penalties for, a school that designates a team or sport as female-only.”

Current reporting shows 1,232,721 “yes” votes (52.7%) and 1,107,376 “no” votes (47.3%), for a lead of 5.4%.

Colorado Proposition 135 would:

• “prohibit surgeries on minors that alter their biological sex characteristics as a treatment in response to a minor’s perception of sex or gender, with certain exceptions; and
• “prohibit the use of state or federal funds or insurance coverage to pay for these surgeries.”

As of this writing, there are 1,224,683 “yes” votes (52.3%) and 1,118,057 “no” votes (47.7%), for a lead of 4.6%.

With an estimated 13% of the vote left to be counted, neither proposition is over the finish line yet. But they are certainly outperforming other propositions. On Colorado Amendment 81, which would require law enforcement agencies to coordinate with the Department of Homeland Security, “no” votes are leading 54.8% to 45.2%. This means that protecting girls’ sports and protecting children from irreversible, harmful surgeries is significantly more popular — even among Colorado’s progressive population — than enforcing federal immigration law.

It’s noteworthy that each of the transgender-related measures came in left-leaning states. This is because the legislatures in those states have refused to protect girls’ sports and gender-confused children on their own.

When more than half the state legislatures protected female athletes from male intrusion and children from gender transition surgeries, pro-transgender activists argued that these were irrelevant or niche issues, driven by “transphobic hate” and an activist class. In reality, these commonsense policies are popular even among voters in Democratic-leaning states. It is the transgender activists and the politicians they control who are truly out of touch.

Such results in ballot initiatives also invite another conclusion. Despite the Democrats’ historic victory in the 2026 midterm elections, the simultaneous success of girls’ sports initiatives in Democrat-controlled states suggests that voters did not choose them because they wanted to see radical pro-transgender policies implemented. If Democrats misinterpret their electoral victory as a signal to return to the radicalism of the Biden administration, they might provoke the type of voter anger that delivered victory to Republicans in 2024.