In a pair of attacks on Thursday against ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian regime aimed to send a message that it is now the dominant power in the Strait. One vessel was sunk, and one was seized. Both attacks were significant, although many reports on the incidents fail to connect the dots. Despite their military losses, Iran believes their geography will carry them to victory despite the long odds.

Vessel Sunk

Indian authorities announced Thursday that an Indian-flagged vessel, the Haj Ali, had sunk off the coast of Oman after a “major explosion” on Wednesday caused a fire on board. All 14 crew members escaped in lifeboats and were rescued by the Omani Coast Guard. India condemned attacks on commercial shipping without naming the obvious culprit, the Iranian regime.

Two characteristics of the Haj Ali make the attack noteworthy. First, although technically a “cargo ship,” as the AP described it, the Haj Ali was not a mega-carrier hauling thousands of shipping containers across the ocean. In fact, it was nearly as far as possible from this image generated in Western minds. Rather, the “mechanised sailing vessel” was a wooden-hulled dhow, according to Marine Insight, which “measured around 57 metres [187 feet] in length and 14 metres [45 feet] in width.”

These facts explain why an explosion and fire would cause the vessel to sink so quickly, but they do not explain why Iran would target such a vessel in the first place. With its vastly depleted arsenal, why would Iran bother to aim an explosive drone at what might be the smallest cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz?

This brings us to the ship’s second noteworthy characteristic: its itinerary. The Haj Ali was traveling from the Port of Berbera in East Africa to the Port of Sharjah in the UAE, laden with a cargo of livestock. Berbera is the key port of Somaliland, the autonomous region of northern Somalia that is officially recognized by no country in the world except Israel. However, Berbera is also strategically critical to the UAE, which uses it as a hub to import a secure food supply from East Africa. This food supply is a critical objective of Emirati foreign policy, as its desert-based urban centers cannot grow enough food to feed themselves.

Thus, the attack on the Haj Ali was an attack on the food supply network that the UAE has invested heavily to secure. Throughout the war, the Iranian regime has treated the UAE as an enemy because of its good relations with the U.S. and Israel. The Haj Ali attack was a signal to the UAE that not even its food supply is safe from Iran, despite Iran’s diminished capabilities.

Vessel Seized

The second vessel is a much different story. On Thursday, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a ship, which it did not name, had been seized by “unauthorized personnel” near the eastern end of the Strait of Hormuz, and the center was investigating further. The British military added the vessel was headed toward Iranian waters.

Shortly thereafter, maritime security consultancy firm Vanguard Tech identified the seized ship as the Hui Chan, a Honduras-flagged vessel operated by Chinese private military contractors — to the extent that any business in China can be described as “private.” Vanguard Tech described the Hui Chuan as a “fishing support vessel,” which operated as a sort of floating armory, providing security protection to civilian ships against piracy.

The obvious question this raises is how a “floating armory,” intended to arm fishing vessels against piracy, was seized by pirates. Would it not be the hardest target on the water to intercept?

Another point of context makes the situation seem even stranger, at least at first glance. On Wednesday night, Iranian regime-controlled news agencies reported that Chinese oil tankers began passing through the Strait of Hormuz after Beijing reached a deal with Tehran. Yet the very next day, a Chinese-operated vessel was boarded and taken to Iranian waters. Was Tehran already breaking its deal with Beijing?

Yet the Chinese deal may also provide the key. Perhaps the Chinese handed over this floating armory on Thursday as a condition of the deal reached on Wednesday night. Perhaps Tehran wanted to deny its anti-piracy protection to local civilian vessels, or perhaps the regime simply wanted to replenish its own stockpiles with the weapons it carried. Perhaps Iran and China even pre-arranged the deal to go into effect during President Donald Trump’s visit to China.

At a summit with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping on Thursday, Trump said the two leaders had reached “a very good understanding” on Iran because Xi “wants them to open up the Strait,” too. But China tried to show off — or show up the president — by arranging its own deal to transit the Strait while American diplomacy has hit a brick wall.

Iranian Bet

Indeed, the Iranian regime recently declared that all future negotiations with the U.S. are off, unless America agrees to five ridiculous conditions, including paying reparations for the war and accepting Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

While its military was soundly defeated, the Iranian regime is still trying to leverage the war into a strategic victory by flexing its muscles over the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian parliamentary committee recently advanced legislation that would establish a legal framework for using the Strait “as a source of leverage” even after the current crisis subsides.

At the same time, different mouthpieces for the Iranian regime still cannot agree on the right tone to strike over the Strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed Thursday that Iran was not attacking any ships, and that the Strait of Hormuz was “open for all commercial vessels, but they need to cooperate with our navy forces.” (Iran’s navy currently lies at the bottom of the ocean.) “It is Americans who have made [the] blockade,” Araghchi claimed. Meanwhile, Iranian state media was boasting triumphantly that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to all but select Chinese ships.

The fate of both vessels aligns with the Iranian policy goal of exercising sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The sinking of one vessel and the seizure of another sends the signal that Iran can control the Strait, especially when the vessels they chose have diplomatic and strategic significance. It is up to the U.S. to demonstrate that Iran’s gambit to control the maritime chokepoint must fail.