3 Reasons Florida Didn't Go Blue Like Texas
Call it a tale of two states. Both Republican-run. Both prosperous. Both heavily populated states that influence the rest of the nation. Yet in the blue tsunami, the results in Texas and Florida were very different.
“In January … of the 10 largest states in this union, only one state will have Republican control of their state, the state of Florida,” Governor Ron DeSantis (R) said Wednesday. “Last night we witnessed — to call it a wave, I don’t think would be fully accurate — it’s the political equivalent of a meteor strike that went all around the United States. Blue states, red states, everything in between,” DeSantis, a two-term governor, pointed out. “And the one state that was able to hold the line and withstand that is right here in the free state of Florida.”
Why was the outcome in Florida so different than in Texas, which DeSantis referred to as Florida’s “chief rival, in a healthy sense”?
“No one holds a candle on the Republican side to the Lone Star State. And yet, not only did they lose a very highly publicized U.S. Senate race, they lost everything,” DeSantis lamented.
Yet, while the states have much in common, there were three notable differences when it came to the 2026 election.
- Affordability on the Ballot
It was indeed the $20 burrito election: Both Texans and Floridians cared about the economy.
Four out of 10 Texan Senate voters said the economy was the most important issue, and so did 37% of Florida Senate voters, according to exit polls. Yet, while Florida and Texas voters shared similar concerns, they had a major split on which party they felt could best address the economy.
Among Florida Senate voters who considered the economy their top issue, 55% voted Republican. But among Texas Senate voters who considered the economy their top issue, only 40% voted Republican.
Why?
One reason might be Florida’s Amendment 3.
“Had Amendment 3 not been on the ballot, you know, I don’t know that we turn out the voters that we ended up turning out. People wanted to vote yes on that and then many of them ended up voting Republican later on down the ballot,” DeSantis underscored.
Amendment 3, which passed 62% to 38% as of the current count, significantly reduces property taxes. Starting in 2027, the first $150,000 of property will be exempt from city, county, and special district taxes, and in 2028, the first $250,000 will be. (School property taxes will still apply.) In one example by Florida TaxWatch, a homeowner would save $1,035 in 2027 and $2,085 in 2028.
That’s a real affordability initiative at a time when voters are understandably concerned about the cost of living. Having it on the ballot not just affected turnout; it also signaled state Republicans had real solutions to address costs.
- Florida’s Cuban Voters
“Cubans stayed with the Republican Party and prevented Florida from becoming a blue state,” writes Giancarlo Sopo, a communications strategist and National Review writer, in a X post. “According to exit polls, 56% supported the GOP nominee for governor. Every other Hispanic group in Florida went 60-40 the other way.”
“Had Cubans voted like other Hispanics, not only would Floridians have woken up this morning to a Democratic governor and possibly a Senator, the GOP would have three fewer House seats,” Sopo added.
Harvard University student Juan Wulff looked at the votes in Miami-Dade County and found the Cuban vote was significant.” In Miami-Dade, the more Cuban the precinct, the more Republican the vote, he noted.” If they were under 10% Cuban, they broke for Nixon +37.7. At 70% Cuban or more, they went for Moody +32.4.”
Even so, Cubans weren’t immune to the political winds. Sopo notes that President Donald Trump captured 70% of the Cuban vote in 2024, and Florida GOP candidates in 2026 received 56 to 60% of the Cuban vote.
- An Actual Socialist Senate Candidate
Angie Nixon, the Democratic Senate candidate in Florida, joined the Democratic Socialists of America in 2026.
While Nixon wasn’t endorsed by the DSA, she did have positions that appealed to that bloc. Nixon, who owns a bookstore and coffee shop called Café Resistance, called for ICE, which she said “acts like a rogue paramilitary force,” to be abolished. She also advocated for DEI: “You have to put the DEI policies back in place,” she argued.
Florida and Texas voters are comparable in terms of their views of socialism. Forty-eight percent of Florida voters have a strongly unfavorable view of socialism, and so do 46% of Texas voters, according to exit polls.
But there was some divergence in how they voted. In Florida, 87% of those who viewed socialism strongly unfavorably voted for Republican incumbent Senator Ashley Moody, who was running against Nixon. In Texas, only 79% of those voters backed state Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
Ultimately, Florida did not entirely escape the effects of the blue wave, even if statewide Republicans eked out victories.
In 2024, Trump won the state by 13 percentage points, capturing 56% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 43%. Senator Rick Scott also beat his Democratic opponent by 13 points.
The margins were notably tighter in 2026: With 99% of the votes in, Moody beat Nixon, 50.8% to 47.9%. The governor’s race was even closer: Republican Byron Donalds captured 50.02% of the vote to Democrat David Jolly’s 48.71%.
Meanwhile, despite redistricting, it appears that Republicans are unlikely to gain any U.S. House seats in Florida. There’s also no longer a Republican supermajority in the Florida House, with at least 16 state House seats flipping from Republican to Democrat.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats are paying attention.
“The Republicans are rejoicing today about their wins; they should take a harder look at the numbers and realize that Florida is back to being purple,” warned Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party.
As both parties look to 2028, Florida offers plenty for strategists to consider.
Katrina Trinko is the editor-in-chief of The Daily Signal.
This article was originally published in The Daily Signal.