Residents of nine red Great Plains and Mountain West states report the highest levels of marital happiness and fertility, but eight blue coastal states dominate the bottom 10, according to a new study examining key family factors in achieving the American Dream.

“Concern about the American Dream is well-known, but what is less known is that men, women and children are more likely to realize the American Dream when they are a part of strong and stable families, and the Dream is in better health in states and communities where families are flourishing,” reports the 2026 edition of the Family Structure Index compiled jointly by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) and the Center for Christian Virtue (CCV).

The index measures the percentage of prime-age adults who are married, the percentage of teenage residents living in intact two-parent families, and the total fertility rate in each of the 50 states. This trio of factors are held by the study authors to be key to making the American Dream possible for the widest range of individuals.

“We know that children raised in intact families are twice as likely to graduate from college and about a third more likely to rise into the middle class or higher as young adults, compared to their peers raised in non-intact families. We know that men and women who are married are about 80% less likely to be poor compared to their peers,” the report states.

“And we know that economic mobility is strongest in states like Utah, where more kids are being raised in married families. In fact, [Harvard University Economics Professor Raj] Chetty found that the strongest community predictor of mobility for poor children — that is, their ability to rise from poverty into affluence as adults — is the share of two-parent families in a community. Finally, we know that even today, the vast majority of married Americans in their prime have been able to buy a home, whereas home ownership is largely out of reach for single Americans.”

The top state in the index is Utah, where 65.6% of prime-aged adults are married, 77.2% of teenage individuals are in intact two-parent families, and the total fertility rate is 1.82 children per couple. Together, those three factors give Utah an index score of 102.6. No other state achieved an index score above 100. Nebraska, which ranked third overall on the top 10 by index, had a higher fertility rate, as did South Dakota in fourth overall at 1.92 and 2.05, respectively.

Idaho ranked second in the top 10, with an index score of 99, while North Dakota, with an index score of 96, was fifth. The second five top 10 states included in order Kansas, Iowa, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Montana. Minnesota was the only state in the top whose voters cast a majority of votes in the 2024 presidential election for the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris.

None of the 50 states achieved a fertility rate of 2.1 children per couple, which is considered the ideal rate to ensure minimal steady population growth.

At the bottom of the barrel of the 50 states, according to the IFS/CCV report’s index score, is New Mexico with 46.9% of its prime-aged adults in marriages, 52.5% of its teenagers in two-parent families, and a fertility rate of 1.59. Other bottom 10 states include Oregon (41), Delaware (42), Massachusetts (43), New York (44), Mississippi (45), Vermont (46), Nevada (47), Louisiana (48), and Rhode Island (49). All bottom 10 states, except Louisiana and Mississippi, voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential contest.

Sixteen of the bottom 25 states were in the Democratic column in 2024, while among the top 25 states, only seven voted Democratic in that election year. On a percentage basis, 72% of the top 25 states voted for the Republican presidential candidate, then-former President Donald Trump, in 2024, compared to only 24% of the bottom 25 states.

In a statement announcing and analyzing the 2026 index, Brad Wilcox and Grant Bailey of IFS pointed out that the latest result “spotlights red states’ growing dominance on the family front. Take family migration. From 2019 to 2024, there has been a steady exodus of families from Blue to Red America — 370,000 families from Blue to Red states. In fact, going back to 2008, a net total of 713 thousand married families with children left Blue states for Red states over 16 years.”

Wilcox and Bailey added that “the report also finds that marriage and family trends moved in opposite directions in Red and Blue states. From 2019 to 2024, Red states saw the share of prime-age adults who are married rise 1.8 percentage points, and the share of teens in married-parent families rise 0.2 points; Blue states saw both figures fall. Fertility declined across the board, but the drop was steeper in Blue states. Taken together, there is a ‘Great American Family Sort’ unfolding, where Americans are increasingly likely to get married and have and raise their kids in Red America.”