As American missiles continue to strike at the heart of the jihadist regime in Iran, a number of experts say that a primary but unstated goal of the U.S. military campaign is to dismantle a vital strategic and energy lifeline of communist China.
On Tuesday, author and foreign policy expert Peter Schweizer observed during a Fox News interview that the U.S.’s full-scale assault on Iran is a devastating development for Xi Jinping’s regime. “China provided their most advanced air defense systems to Iran, [which were] totally decimated by the United States and the Israelis. China invested more than $100 billion in Iran in industrial energy projects, etc., much of that in loans to the Iranian government. They’re not going to get that back. With both Venezuela and Iran, Donald Trump has effectively taken 20% of China’s oil supply and reshuffled it.”
Others like Zineb Riboua, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, underscored the point by noting that Xi “personally authorized the weapons transfers” to Iran as part of an extensive foreign policy program that included China purchasing “1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year and takes over 80 percent of everything Iran ships.”
“The entire architecture of the CCP’s dogma of inevitability rested on Iran’s ability to endure, and Epic Fury removed the foundation in a single afternoon,” Riboua emphasized. “… Xi bet a decade of foreign policy on Khamenei’s ability to survive American pressure, and the bet did not pay off.”
Haviv Rettig Gur, a senior analyst for The Times of Israel, argued Tuesday that the ongoing U.S. strike on Iran is more consequential for the global order than most realize. “[T]he central question of the next 30 years is being worked out: whether the American-led global order survives, or whether China displaces it,” he underscored.
Gur further detailed the extent to which China was helping to assist Iran in combating the U.S. military. “Reports emerged in late February of a near-finalized deal to supply Iran with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles capable of speeds exceeding Mach 3 and engineered to evade the Aegis defense systems deployed on American carrier strike groups. China was replacing Iranian government and military software with closed Chinese systems, hardening Iran against CIA and Mossad cyber operations.” In addition, “Iran had switched from the GPS system to the Chinese BeiDou system.”
But the Trump administration’s preemptive strike on Iran is a move taken from China’s historic playbook, says Gordon Chang, an author and distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute.
“President Trump is employing Mao Zedong’s tactic of ‘encircling the cities from the countryside,’” he told The Washington Stand. “Iran and Venezuela are parts of the ‘countryside,’ and China is the ‘city,’ as the American president sees them. Xi Jinping, steeped in Maoism, knows exactly what Trump is doing but is powerless to stop him. This is, after all, what Xi has been trying to do to the U.S.”
Chang further noted that over “the last few days, gasoline prices in China have spiked 11% and diesel prices have soared 13.5%. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz over an extended period can cripple the country’s economy. Last year, China took 87.2% of Iran’s exports of crude oil, about 15% of China’s oil imports. Another 30% of China’s oil comes from the Gulf states.”
“All this oil has to pass the Strait of Hormuz,” he continued. “At the moment, the Strait is effectively closed as shippers do not want to take the risk, and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official announced that it will attack any ships trying to transit the Strait. Iran did also announce that ships going to China would be allowed to pass, but it’s not clear that Chinese ships will get safe passage.”
Chang went on to point out that “it’s not just the volume of oil that affects China. Iran’s oil is heavily discounted. China’s independent or ‘teapot’ refiners, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s refining capacity, depend on cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela. Now, they will have to pay market price for any oil they can get. And they will have to pay in hard currency, not the renminbi.”
As the U.S. strikes appear to be taking apart Iran’s military capabilities piece by piece, a crucial question is emerging as to how much of America’s weapons stockpile is being depleted and whether the Iran operation will hinder the U.S.’s ability to defend Taiwan if China decides that the time is ripe to attack.
Analysts say that America’s dwindling supply of high-end missiles, especially THAAD missiles and Patriot interceptors, is particularly concerning due to the fact that it can take up to two years to manufacture each munition. “I think it is very concerning in terms of the strain that this could put on our interceptor capacity if we maintain this sustained tempo over time,” remarked Joe Costa, who serves as director of the Forward Defense program at the Atlantic Council. He added that at the rate that many munitions are being currently used, significant strains in supply could surface within “weeks, not months.”
But Chang thinks that it is highly doubtful that Beijing will launch an assault on Taiwan, even with America’s military assets focused on the Middle East.
“Fortunately, China’s regime is not able at this moment to start hostilities with an invasion of the main island of Taiwan,” he observed. “Xi Jinping’s relentless purges, which have intensified this year, have left the People’s Liberation Army leaderless. The Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, which controls the military, has only two of its seven members. One of them is Xi, who is not a military officer, and the other is a political commissar. There is no one on the commission who is an operational officer.”
“China at the moment can stumble into war — the chance of this is quite high — but it is unlikely to launch major offensive military operations,” Chang added.
Dan Hart is senior editor at The Washington Stand.


