The presidential election in Brazil — South America’s largest country and economy — is coming down to the wire. This Sunday, October 4, two men with completely opposing visions for the country will face off; both represent distinct implications for Washington’s foreign policy.

The octogenarian leftist president and candidate for a fourth term, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the right-wing contender, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, are technically tied in the polls, with 40% for the former and 36% for the latter.

For the moment, Lula is acting evasively. Contrary to earlier announcements, he decided against appearing at a televised debate scheduled for this Thursday—three days before the election — on the popular network Globo.

Last Sunday, at a rally in the state of Goiás, Bolsonaro had said: “I am going to the Globo debate. I am confirming it right here. Let him decide. I want to go to debate him. I am calling on him to show up: Lula, come debate me, because I want to rub the truth in your face and show that my vision for Brazil is better than yours.”

Is Lula running away from questions and arguments that are uncomfortable for his campaign? Perhaps regarding his ties to the Chavista narco-terrorist dictatorship, or the regime in Havana? Or maybe the corruption scandal hanging over his son?

Security is undoubtedly an issue on which all candidates promise improvements. However, it is under Lula’s government that this scourge has persisted in Brazilian society. Consequently, he is the one who will be called to account.

The impoverished and violent favelas of Rio de Janeiro hold an increasingly important trove of votes. Over the last four decades, their size has tripled, according to a recent investigation by the news agency France 24. They are now home to nearly 2.1 million inhabitants. “On their own, these neighborhoods — which often feel abandoned by public authorities — can decide the outcome of local and even national elections,” the European outlet highlights.

Life in the favelas is marked by problems ranging from a lack of public transport, poor road conditions, and inadequate sewage systems to abandoned schools and entire neighborhoods controlled by dangerous gangs that profit from drug trafficking, extortion, and other illicit activities.

Candidate Bolsonaro — the eldest son of former President Jair — has stated regarding security that he intends to reclassify criminal gangs as “terrorists.” Under a right-wing government, Brazil’s main criminal factions — the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho (CV) — as well as paramilitary militias, would be designated as narco-terrorist organizations.

This initiative aims to toughen penalties and intensify the crackdown on these groups. Furthermore, it aligns with the White House’s hemispheric security policy and the growing list of regional allies participating in the “Shield of the Americas” initiative — a group Brazil has not yet joined.

An analysis indicates that both the PCC and the CV are present in all 27 federal units, although each maintains dominance in different states. Additionally, recent investigations document alliances between major factions and local groups across 17 states. In short: under Lula, organized crime is forming broader networks.

Bolsonaro also promises to tackle the corruption that has tainted the da Silva family.

Recent investigations targeting Fábio Luís Lula da Silva — known as “Lulinha,” the current president’s eldest son — have played right into the hands of the right-wing campaign. The Federal Police have opened three inquiries before the Supreme Federal Court regarding possible crimes of influence peddling and the alleged granting of favors to companies by public agencies.

One of the main lines of investigation examines messages from lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger requesting Lulinha’s intervention to facilitate business deals involving medicinal cannabis products and dengue testing kits.

Let us see what the polls decide this Sunday. If Brazil breaks free from leftist forces, it would complete a South American shift toward prosperity and freedom — moving away from the orbit of a declining Havana to fully align with Washington’s promise of stability and security.