California voters brought to the polls a mixed bag of historic apathy and unexpected political shifts on Tuesday, as the Golden State’s primary election saw abysmal voter turnout and a resulting gubernatorial race that went against predictions. 

As ballots continue being counted, election officials have become alarmed at the massive drop in public participation. According to early estimates, less than 40% of registered voters cast a ballot, setting the backdrop for what could be one of the lowest turnouts for a primary in modern California history. 

Across the state, preliminary figures from the California secretary of State indicated early returns comprised a mere 22% of registered voters, though that number has climbed nominally as the millions of mail-in ballots finish trickling in. Local regions offer just as bleak a picture. Los Angeles County election officials reported on Friday that the total processed and outstanding ballots would yield a mere 36% turnout of its immense electorate. 

Analysts suggest that the drop-off is a result of a combination of voter fatigue and an overly crowded field of candidates contending to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom (D). Under California’s “top two” primary system, the two candidates that receive the most votes will advance to a November runoff election, regardless of their party affiliation.

A Fragmented Democratic Party

Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra successfully took the first spot on the November ballot. The Associated Press projected Becerra would advance after he overtook his GOP rival late in the week. 

Becerra leaned into this unexpected momentum. “The underdog stayed in the fight,” he told a crowd of supporters at a Los Angeles rally, calling his ascent “the everyday miracle of living in a state that regularly makes the improbable seem inevitable.” 

Becerra ultimately won just over 27% of the vote. On paper, Democrats should secure a dominant and easy victory in the general election. Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer, representing the progressive wing of the party, brought in just over 22% of the vote. If Steyer’s voters choose to support the establishment-backed Becerra in November, the combined progressive and moderate Democratic factions would command an overwhelming majority in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one.

On the flip side, the battle for second place became a prolonged nail-biter. Republican candidate and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton held a marginal lead with 25% of the vote to finally secure his spot late Tuesday night. There still remain nearly a million “late-mail” ballots to be counted, which are generally oriented with left-leaning voters who wait until the day of the election to mail their ballots in. 

Historical Trends Defied

While Democrats maintain a strong advantage statewide, Hilton’s performance has rattled California’s political landscape. Hilton managed to either flip or heavily contest several counties that Republican Brian Dahle fell short of capturing during the 2022 gubernatorial race against Gavin Newsom. 

The GOP candidate’s ability to gradually chip away at traditionally Independent and moderate Democratic counties underscores a potential shift in the state’s partisan dynamic. 

“Change is coming, and the campaign for change starts today,” Hilton told reporters.

Republicans have capitalized on Hilton’s performance, believing it to be proof that the average Californian is becoming frustrated with one-party-rule and the state’s crippling cost of living. Simultaneously, these same Republicans have voiced public criticism over the lengthy ballot-counting process, claiming that these multi-week delays erode public trust in the institution. 

The Outlook

The historically low voter turnout remains the news staple of this cycle. Neither party can afford to take the electorate for granted in the fall. Hilton has managed to keep his narrow lead against Stayer and advance; he must now navigate a steep climb against Becerra in a general election. However, his surprise primary map shows that if more than 60% of voters decide to remain home on election day, California’s reliably blue status may meet unexpected friction.