In the wake of China’s largest military operation surrounding Taiwan to date, analysts say that Beijing’s communist regime is becoming increasingly more aggressive against the independent island and will likely leverage the U.S.’s recent capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to their strategic advantage.

On December 30, China’s military launched a massive show of force in the waters surrounding the island of Taiwan, named “Justice Mission 2025.” The naval and air force exercise was perhaps the most aggressive ever conducted among the numerous such exercises that China has launched around the island over the last two decades, involving a complete encirclement of Taiwan in eight separate zones. It consisted of over 30 naval and coast guard vessels, as well as 201 aircraft, “125 of which crossed the median line between the PRC and Taiwan.”

During the exercise, China’s vessels encroached into Taiwan’s territorial waters closer than ever previously observed. In addition, “10 hours of live-fire exercises” were conducted, including the firing of missiles “closer to Taiwan than previously observed, with Taiwan reporting that all 10 missiles fired into the southwestern Zone Three landed in Taiwan’s contiguous waters, between 12 and 24 nautical miles from Taiwan.” In total, 27 rockets were fired in the waters surrounding the island.

The exercise also marked the first time China’s military practiced repelling potential approaching enemy forces, “displaying its ability to both strike and isolate the island,” as noted by The New York Times.

The vast military operation from Beijing is likely a response to the U.S.’s record $11.1 billion arms package to Taiwan, which took place 11 days after the deal was announced. China’s defense ministry had stated that “forceful measures” would be taken in response to the deal.

Some analysts also say that China will likely attempt to leverage the U.S.’s capture of Venezuelan dictator and wanted drug trafficker Nicolás Maduro in order to defend its ongoing stance that it has the right to invade Taiwan. “It’s really creating a lot of openings and cheap ammunition for the Chinese to push back against the U.S. in the future,” remarked William Yang, an analyst at International Crisis Group. China’s foreign ministry publicly condemned the U.S. operation, claiming it was a “hegemonic act” that “seriously violate[d] international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty.”

Experts like Lt. Col. (Ret.) Bob Maginnis, who serves as Family Research Council’s senior fellow for National Security, say that China’s heightened military exercises around Taiwan have a multi-pronged purpose.

“China’s recent operation around Taiwan marks a clear shift from signaling to operational rehearsal,” he told The Washington Stand. “The late-December encirclement drill simulated a blockade with live-fire elements, integrated air-and-sea strike coordination, and pressure on Taiwan’s principal access points — the precise sequencing required for a real campaign. By running large formations repeatedly around the island and disrupting civilian air routes, Beijing is also compressing warning time and dulling regional sensitivity to crisis indicators, which raises the risk of miscalculation. This is not limited to the military domain. Taiwan is facing whole-of-society coercion — sustained cyber pressure against critical infrastructure synchronized with drills, alongside economic intimidation. The political message is unmistakable: Taiwan is meant to feel surrounded, resistance portrayed as futile, partners warned to stay neutral — all while Xi Jinping reiterates reunification as a core national objective.”

Maginnis further contended that China will almost certainly make use of the Maduro operation to justify future aggression.

“Beijing will attempt to leverage the U.S. operation against Maduro primarily for narrative and diplomatic advantage — but the effect cuts both ways,” he observed. “China will amplify claims that the raid violated sovereignty and international norms to paint Washington as lawless, blunt U.S. criticism if China escalates around Taiwan, and argue at the United Nations and across the Global South that the United States applies rules selectively — and therefore has no standing to lecture China on what it calls an internal matter. Beijing may also probe for distraction, testing whether Washington’s attention and readiness in the Indo-Pacific have softened while it manages Venezuela’s aftermath.”

“That said, the episode may not help Beijing as much as some expect,” Maginnis continued. “A successful, high-risk capture underscores U.S. reach, intelligence integration, and political will — attributes that factor directly into any China calculus on Taiwan. And heavy-handed drills around Taiwan tend to harden regional views of China, pushing partners toward tighter cooperation even when their public rhetoric urges restraint. In short, Beijing will try to exploit the narrative — but operationally, the drills themselves increase urgency for deterrence and allied coordination rather than diminishing it.”

Other experts like Gordon Chang, an author and a distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, say that the imminent invasion of Taiwan by Xi Jinping’s regime is highly unlikely for a number of reasons.

“Last month’s China’s Justice Mission 2025 was a rehearsal for the imposition of a blockade or quarantine, but China’s regime is in no position to put either of those coercive measures in place,” he told TWS. “China’s military is in disarray; hostile action against Taiwan would be unpopular among China’s people, who are in no mood for misadventure abroad; and Chinese officials, who know their regime has never been more trade-dependent in its history, realize they have a lot to lose by disrupting international commerce.”

Chang went on to note that “many hotheads on Chinese social media have been saying that Trump’s extraction of Nicolás Maduro serves as a template for China’s extraction of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te. No, it is not a template. Lai is a legitimate head of state while Maduro was a drug trafficker, the head of the Cartel of the Suns. Taking the Venezuelan was an act of law enforcement. Yes, there is a propaganda opening for China, but the regime, for a multitude of reasons, is not going to try a kidnapping.”