Fresh from engineering the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, congressional Democrats are seeing a sudden surge in popularity in polls, less than a year ahead of the 2026 midterms. An NPR/PBS News/Marist survey published this week found that 55% of American adults would cast their ballots for a Democrat if the midterm elections were held today, compared to only 41% who would vote for a Republican.

The 14-point lead is the largest Democrats have held since 2017, in the first year of President Donald Trump’s first term. Among Independent voters in particular, Democrats hold a 33-point advantage, with 61% saying that they would vote for a Democratic candidate and less than a third (28%) saying that they would vote for a Republican, with only 8% “unsure.” The same survey showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 48% each in November last year.

The Democratic Party’s lead over the GOP is not unique to the Marist poll: composites by FiftyPlusOne and RealClearPolling also show Democrats holding a lead (although a more moderate one) over Republicans. FiftyPlusOne shows Democrats with a lead of just over four points, while RCP shows them with a nearly five-point lead.

However, the Marist poll also found that more Americans blame the Democrats (39%) for the recent government shutdown than either congressional Republicans (26%) or the president (34%). Additionally, trust in the Democratic Party is low: only 29% of surveyed Americans expressed confidence in the Democratic Party, while 71% expressed little or no confidence, compared to 35% who put their confidence in the GOP. Only 20% of Americans said that they had confidence in Congress as a whole, compared to 80% who had little or no confidence in the legislative branch.

The Marist survey also found the president’s approval rating at the lowest point since the end of his first term. As of this month, only 39% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, down from a high of 45% in March. The 45th and 47th president’s approval hasn’t been that low since January 8, 2021, when it stood at 38%.

In comments to The Washington Stand, FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter warned, “Even accounting for the history of Marist polling tending to favor Democrats, this should serve as a wake-up call for the GOP.” He explained, “A 14-point edge for the Democrats in a generic congressional poll like this is impossible to ignore. To put this in perspective, the GOP had a five-point edge in the generic congressional polling a few months before the 2010 Tea Party sweep, a year in which the GOP won control of Congress by flipping 63 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.” Carpenter added, “To be clear, 2026 will not be 2010; districts have been redrawn numerous times, and the issues that voters care about have mostly shifted. The top concerns for voters largely remain the affordability crisis and immigration.”

A Fox News poll also discovered that voters — including Republicans — are disappointed with Trump’s second term, particularly his handling of economic issues and affordability. Voters reported that they have seen price increases this year for groceries (85%), utilities (78%), health care (67%), housing (66%), and gasoline (54%). Fox News noted that Republicans agreed with Democrats and Independent voters that costs have risen in all areas except for gasoline. Additionally, nearly half (46%) of voters said that the Trump administration’s economic policies have hurt their personal finances — just one point behind the 47% who said the same of former President Joe Biden’s economic management last year.

Voters also trust the GOP more on issues like securing the border (29-point lead), addressing illegal immigration (16-point lead), reducing crime (14-point lead), and reducing the federal budget deficit (five-point lead), but trust the Democratic Party more on addressing affordability (10-point lead), increasing wages (14-point lead), and reducing health care costs (21-point lead). Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helped manage the Fox News survey, quipped, “People are struggling to afford necessities and blaming those in charge. What’s interesting is watching Democrats gain politically from a problem they arguably caused — and that crushed them in 2024. But that’s politics.”

The Fox News survey also found a “record low” favorability rating for congressional Democrats (39%), tied with congressional Republicans (39%) and followed closely by the president (40%).