Hours after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, the price of U.S. benchmark oil fell 15% to $96 a barrel. Economists say that while the ceasefire will provide some short-term relief in surging energy prices as a result of the Iran conflict, the long-term economic impact of the war could last months or years, in addition to other concerns over lingering inflation, sluggish economic growth, and the continued buildup of the national debt.

As an Axios report noted, there is a massive backlog of container ships that are currently stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, which was virtually shut down by Iranian attacks and threats during the 39 days of the U.S.’s Operation Epic Fury. The backlog “could take weeks to clear even under ideal circumstances” and damaged energy infrastructure in the region “has resulted in energy shortages across the globe and could take years to repair.” According to strategists at TD Bank, “it will take many months for energy supply to return to something closer to normal, and several months of data volatility will leave central banks cautious” about adjusting interest rates.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday reported tepid economic growth of 0.5% for the fourth quarter of 2025 (October through December). The low number was partly the result of cautious consumer spending on goods, which grew just 0.3%, substantially lower than the 3% growth from July through September. Overall economic growth in 2025 came in at 2.1%, compared to 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023.

Economists like David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, say that in order to get the economy back on track, persistently high inflation and interest rates will need to be addressed.

“I would argue that tariffs have put more upward pressure on prices than anything else,” he contended during “Washington Watch with Tony Perkins” Wednesday. “We saw that the inflation rate at the end of 2025 was higher than it was at the end of 2024, not remarkably higher but marginally higher. The Fed has a lot of things they have to navigate, but Congress gave them this thing called a dual mandate, where they’re supposed to be concerned with both price stability and full employment. It’s a very tricky tension for them to hold. I think more questionable jobs data is probably a bigger concern, and I do expect the president’s new appointment, Kevin Warsh, is still going to push for a rate cut this year.”

Bahnsen went on to argue that in order to encourage long-term economic growth, there must be a refocus on bedrock free market principles instead of fixating on short-term concerns for political gain.

“What do I believe creates economic growth long term? You want a moral culture that is entrepreneurial, that celebrates risk-taking, that has low tax, low regulation, and facilitates the conditions of economic growth,” he laid out. “We mostly have had these things, certainly relative to other countries in our nation’s history. It’s why we’ve become the most prosperous country on earth. But in the current cycle we’re in, there [are] definitely questions as to how dependent we are on AI. What would economic growth be if we weren’t building data centers everywhere? … [It’s] not creating a lot of firings. We’re not in recession. We’re not terminating a lot, but hiring has slowed quite a bit. So I just think we want to stay humble in the way we assess the economy right now and not jump to a politicized conclusion.”

At the same time, the long-term financial monkey on the back of the U.S. continues to be the national debt, which has now reached approximately $39 trillion. Fortune observed Thursday that interest payments on the debt for the first six months of the current fiscal year are $529 billion, “roughly equal to spending for the same period on both the Department of Defense’s military budget and the Department of Education.”

“[It’s a] massive drag [on the economy],” Bahnsen lamented. “And the fact of the matter is that since the financial crisis [of 2008], we’ve grown at about 1.9% per year, net of inflation. And for the 70 years before that, we grew at 3.1% a year. That’s a huge difference in opportunity cost to our kids, our grandkids, and that’s what the impact of the long-term debt is.” He further pointed out that the longer the U.S. carries the debt without defaulting on it “lulls people in a false sense of security” which will lead to the debt continuing to “impact economic growth over time.”

“Unfortunately, there’s very little political will to do anything about it,” Bahnsen added.