In the wake of Russia’s unprecedented high-volume drone incursion into NATO-member Poland amid Vladimir Putin’s continued assault on Ukraine, tensions are rising in Eastern Europe over fears of the spread of armed conflict as Russia and Belarus conducted major joint military exercises near the Polish border Friday.

On Wednesday, reports surfaced that numerous Russian drones were shot down by NATO warplanes over Polish airspace. There were reportedly 19 total incursions into Poland Tuesday night, with the fragments of 16 drones recovered across eastern Poland, according to the country’s police. Reports indicated that the drones were unarmed, however debris from the destroyed drones appeared to damage buildings inside Poland.

The large-scale aerial infiltration of a NATO member country was unparalleled since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the drones “reached farther west over Poland than at any time previously reported during the war.” In addition, some of the drones entered into Poland via Belarus, a close ally of Putin.

For its part, Russia initially denied any involvement in the drone incursion, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claiming that Poland has “no evidence” that the drones originated from Russia. “That’s why they don’t back it up. If they had evidence, they would back it up,” she stated.

Nonetheless, the infiltration elicited a strong response from Poland and other NATO members. “I have no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it’s incomparably more dangerous than before,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk remarked Wednesday. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.” In response to insinuations from Russia that the drones entered Polish airspace by accident, and after President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that the incursion “could have been a mistake,” Tusk responded on X, “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”

In a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine released Thursday, they argued that the drone infiltration was undertaken by Russia to test the readiness of NATO’s combat capabilities and response time. “This was a deliberate and coordinated strike constituting an unprecedented provocation and escalation of tension,” the statement contended.

Meanwhile, tensions in Europe continued to rise as Russia and close ally Belarus kicked off a series of joint military drills near the Polish border in Belarus, in Russia, and in the Baltic and Barents Seas known as Zapad-2025. While Russia claims that the drills are defensive in nature, observers note that the last Zapad exercises were carried out in September 2021, which were then followed by a massive buildup of Russian forces along the eastern border with Ukraine. Russia then commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Experts like Lt. Col. (Ret.) Bob Maginnis, Family Research Council’s senior fellow for National Security, say that the latest aggression by Russia is troubling.

“The Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace is deeply concerning,” he told The Washington Stand. “While Warsaw has declared it ‘not a mistake,’ President Trump has suggested it ‘could have been a mistake.’ The truth may fall somewhere between deliberate provocation and operational mishap.”

Maginnis continued, “I tend to agree that the incursion was likely the result of technical error rather than intentional escalation. Russia has been deploying hundreds of drones at a time in Ukraine, and managing such a swarm involves significant risk of navigational drift or control loss. Given the complexity of drone operations, it is entirely plausible that a few systems strayed across the border unintentionally.”

However, Maginnis went on to argue that “even if the incursion was inadvertent, it still constitutes a violation of NATO territory. Sovereignty cannot be treated lightly, and Moscow must understand that errors of this nature have consequences.”

As for how NATO and the Trump administration should respond to the provocation, Maginnis suggested a two-fold strategy.

“First, NATO and the Trump administration should issue a firm, unified condemnation of the violation, making clear that Polish sovereignty — and by extension, NATO’s collective security — cannot be compromised,” he insisted. “This sends the message that the Alliance will not tolerate even ‘accidental’ infringements.”

“Second,” Maginnis continued, “NATO should accelerate reinforcement of its eastern flank with enhanced air and missile defenses. Bolstering surveillance, radar integration, and rapid-response capabilities along the Polish, Baltic, and Romanian borders will reduce the risk of future penetrations and demonstrate to Russia that even inadvertent violations will be met with heightened readiness.”

“By responding with clarity and resolve — without overreacting — NATO can both reassure Poland and deter further missteps, while also avoiding unnecessary escalation at a precarious moment in European security,” Maginnis concluded.