On Sunday, October 4, Brazil held the first round of the presidential election, a contest that upended pollsters’ predictions. The Liberal Party (PL) and its candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro — representing the majority of conservative and right-wing voters in the South American nation — emerged victorious over the Workers’ Party (PT) ticket led by Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.

The former took the lead with 47.03% (56.1 million votes) of the ballots cast, while the latter secured 45.16% (53.9 million). Since neither candidate reached the threshold of 50% plus one of the vote, both Lula and Flávio will face off again in the race for the presidency on October 25.

Beyond the way the mobilization around the right-wing movement caught many analysts off guard, a significant development of the day took place in Congress. The PL made decisive gains, emerging as the single largest force in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. It nearly doubled its number of senators, rising from 15 to 28.

While the presidential race looks promising for Flávio, the outcome is not yet settled; however, the clan’s presence in Brazilian politics for the coming years is already assured, regardless of what happens on the 25th.

Michelle, Flávio’s mother, garnered over 398,500 votes while running for the Senate in the Federal District, a figure that also made her the highest-vote-getting candidate. Her brother Carlos also triumphed, securing 25.35% of the valid votes in Santa Catarina and winning a Senate seat.

In that same region, the young Jair Renan achieved a landslide victory in the race for the Chamber of Deputies; and his paternal uncle, Renato, won a seat in the Chamber of Deputies representing the populous city of São Paulo.

In strictly electoral terms, the result reaffirms that the Bolsonaro clan remains a political force in the country — indeed, one that has strengthened since the patriarch, Jair, officially assumed the Brazilian presidency on January 1, 2019, after defeating the leftist Lula in the general election the previous October.

His presidential term, remembered for its defense of conservative values, ended in 2023 — the same year he was accused of leading an alleged conspiracy to reject the results of the 2022 election.

In 2025, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) sentenced him to 27 years and 3 months in prison and imposed a lifetime ban on holding political office — a penalty his son Flávio would overturn should he become president.

Those who reject the accusations against Jair Bolsonaro — including the former president himself, his legal team, allied lawmakers, and his supporters — maintain that the judicial process has been a tool of political persecution orchestrated to neutralize the conservative opposition.

And although Lula sought to use Jair’s conviction as a campaign issue — effectively turning the election into a referendum on his son Flávio — the strategy backfired. Most Brazilians do not seem to buy into, or even care about, the charges keeping the Bolsonaro patriarch under house arrest.

The former president’s legal defense argued before the STF that the prosecution’s case rested on “mere assumptions” and political rhetoric. Another factor bolstering the defense is the questioning of the legitimacy of the judges who handed down the conviction, particularly regarding direct conflicts of interest involving the PT government.

Indeed, some analysts — such as the Argentine Agustín Laje — have argued that Brazil is experiencing a “judicial dictatorship” orchestrated by officials close to Lula, including the notorious Judge Alexandre de Moraes.

Undoubtedly, despite the pressures, the Bolsonaro family emerged as the big winner of the first round. God willing, Flávio will win the runoff — and with him, the Western values that Brazil so urgently needs to restore and greatly benefit hemispheric security following four years of leftist rule and the rise of drug trafficking and organized crime.