Sometimes, the best deal that can be reached is none at all. After a 21-hour marathon session on Saturday, Vice President J.D. Vance and a U.S. delegation walked away from negotiations with Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan, after the Iranians rejected a “final and best offer,” Vance told reporters. In response to the Iranian regime’s refusal to compromise, President Donald Trump directed the U.S. to increase pressure on the regime by blockading all Iranian ports.

According to the Trump administration, the diplomatic impasse came over the Iranian regime’s ambition to eventually obtain a nuclear weapon. There were many “points that were agreed to … but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people,” President Trump described on Truth Social. “I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!”

“We’ve made very clear what our red lines are, what things we’re willing to accommodate them on, and what things we’re not willing to accommodate them on, and we’ve made that as clear as we possibly could, and they have chosen not to accept our terms,” said Vance.

“But the simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon — not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term?” he insisted. “We haven’t seen that yet.”

Such a message coming from Vance signals that Iran has no room left to maneuver with the Trump administration. Since executive officials accidentally included a journalist in a secret Signal chat last year, the public has been aware of the foreign policy disagreements among Trump’s subordinates, with Vance carrying the “dovish” side of the debate, while other officials espoused a more “hawkish” approach to military intervention.

Iran had complained about previous envoys, whom they suspected of being hawks, and demanded to negotiate with Vance instead. Now, even Vance has walked away from the negotiating table, leaving Iran to wonder what diplomatic cards they have left to play.

U.S. officials claimed that Iran “severely misjudged” what kind of leverage it held, but The Wall Street Journal editors concluded that “Iran’s failure to come to terms was predictable,” as they saw Trump’s eagerness for a ceasefire as a sign of desperation. “The regime won’t even open the Strait [of Hormuz] amid the cease-fire, so there was little reason to think its leaders would abandon their decades-long nuclear objectives and ideological core,” they wrote.

During the course of negotiations, U.S. officials did indeed conclude that Iran did not believe giving up their nuclear ambitions was a requirement for any peace deal.

As irrational as it may seem, Iran’s belief was at least justified by historical precedent. During the negotiations for the 2015 nuclear deal, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reportedly ran after Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif when he walked out of negotiations, convincing the Iranian regime that the U.S. is more desperate for a deal than they are.

But applying the same logic to Trump might be a fatal mistake. After the most recent talks collapsed, Trump said, “I don’t care if they come back or not. If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”

That’s because President Trump found another pressure point to make the Iranian regime feel the same financial pain they were inflicting on the rest of the world. “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump announced Sunday morning on Truth Social.

Trump later clarified this to mean that the U.S. Navy would “Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports,” beginning on Monday morning at 10 a.m. EST. The blockade would not affect ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian ports, but it would affect “every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” the president said.

Regarding the justification for this action, Trump was clear. “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so.” Therefore, he resolved, “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

In addition to blockading Iranian ports and ships that pay Iran’s illegal toll, Trump said, the U.S. Navy would also sweep the Strait of Hormuz for mines and blow up any Iranian boats (Iran still has some small fast-attack boats, although its surface navy has been destroyed) that target American vessels. Two guided missile destroyers, the USS Frank E. Peterson and the USS Michael Murphy, traveled through the strait to clear it of mines, CENTCOM announced.

Trump’s decision to blockade Iranian shipping met with a chorus of praise, at least from those who don’t automatically discount anything the president does. Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), estimated the blockade would cost Iran roughly $435 million per day, since over 90% of Iran’s annual trade travels through the Persian Gulf.

In particular, the blockade cuts off Iran’s ability to export oil and gas, which provides nearly a quarter of Iran’s GDP. If the blockade lasts long enough, Iran will also run out of storage space (it currently has space for 20 million barrels, which current pumping rates would fill in 13 days) and may have to shut off its wells, which could permanently damage their productivity.

The blockade will also squeeze Iran’s access to outside goods, such as food. Food inflation in Iran had hit triple digits even before the war, and further pressure may cause a total collapse of the currency. “The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” Maleki estimated.

However, the constricting tactics of a blockade take time to bear fruit — weeks or even months. In the meantime, the oil tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf will remain trapped, and global oil prices will see no relief. In fact, by cutting off Iran’s own oil exports, the Trump administration may even force oil prices higher — and in a way that makes it more directly responsible for the high prices.

However, at least the Trump administration has now given Iran a compelling reason to reopen the Strait. But it remains to be seen whether even economic ruin will compel the religious extremist regime to reform itself.

Thus far, Iran has responded to the American blockade by threatening to target the ports of other nations in the region, who have played only a defensive part in the fighting. “Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” its state broadcaster declared Monday. “NO PORT in the region will be safe.” Since Iran no longer has a surface navy, this threat against its neighbor’s ports must be interpreted not as a threat to blockade them, but a threat to strike them with missiles — which Iran was already doing.

In any event, President Trump was not impressed with the prostrate regime’s snarling replies to his calling their diplomatic bluff. “Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country,” Trump declared. “Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khamenei, and most of their ‘Leaders,’ are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition.”

The message is clear: Iran must give up its nuclear weapons program or face the consequences. And, until the Iranian regime is forced to submit to those terms, “no deal” is the best diplomatic outcome.