While November’s midterm elections have yet to be decided, some polls are already looking to 2028’s presidential race and asking who will succeed President Donald Trump as the head of the Republican Party — and who might rise to challenge Trump’s successor from the Democratic Party’s disarrayed ranks.

Most polls have shown that Republican voters support incumbent Vice President J.D. Vance as the party’s 2028 presidential nominee, often by margins of 20 points or more. April surveys from YouGov, Rasmussen Reports, Echelon Insights, and Harvard-Harris all showed Vance leading likely or possible Republican contenders by anywhere from 23 to 30 points, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the president’s son, Donald Trump, Jr., often placing second. A Financial Times poll earlier this month also pegged Vance as the leader of the pack, with a 25-point lead over Trump, Jr. and a 26-point lead over Rubio.

However, a new survey from Brazilian analytics firm AtlasIntel places Rubio at the top of the heap — by a 15-point margin. According to the poll, 45.4% of GOP primary voters would prefer to see Rubio as the party’s nominee, with only 29.6% favoring Vance. Third place went to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (11.2%), while fourth place went to “none of the above” (10.3%). Generally, second place in polls behind Vance, Trump, Jr. tied for last place with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (both at 0.4%).

While the president has not yet formally endorsed a potential successor, he has repeatedly suggested Vance and Rubio would make “a good ticket.” At a White House event on Monday, Trump asked, “I don’t know. Who’s it going to be? Is it going to be J.D.? Is there going to be somebody else? I don’t know.” According to The Daily Wire, applause in the room was louder for Vance than for Rubio. “By the way, I do believe that’s a dream team,” he said of a possible Vance-Rubio ticket. But these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance.” The president added, “I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”

In a Vanity Fair interview last year, Rubio affirmed that he would not challenge Vance for the Republican presidential nomination if Vance announced a 2028 White House bid. “If J.D. Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee,” Rubio said, “and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”

“It’s not surprising that the GOP base views Secretary Rubio favorably and considers him a top contender for the 2028 nomination,” FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter told The Washington Stand. “What is surprising is that he’s viewed more favorably in this poll for the 2028 nomination than Vice President Vance. The vice president has led in recent polling, and historically, the vice president is seen as the heir apparent because he is more visible in the administration than the secretary of State. Certainly, President Trump’s recent comments that a Vance-Rubio 2028 ticket would be a ‘dream team’ elevates both candidates in the minds of the president’s base.”

“But, a word of caution is necessary: President Trump also said he is not endorsing any successor now,” Carpenter continued. “With the Iowa caucuses not happening until January of 2028, we still have a long way to go before the GOP primary. What is clear is that the eventual GOP nominee will be someone acceptable to the president’s MAGA base. Furthermore, it’s safe to assume the eventual GOP nominee will be aligned with the base on some of the issues with broad appeal to the entire electorate that President Trump campaigned on in 2024, like keeping men out of women’s sports and protecting minors from gender transition procedures, to name a few. Polling consistently shows close to 80% of Americans agree with the president on these issues, and they just so happen to also be shibboleths for the Left.”

The AtlasIntel survey also showed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) leading the field in a potential Democratic presidential primary. Overall, 26% of Democratic primary voters shared their support for Ocasio-Cortez, who was followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (22.4%) and California Governor Gavin Newsom (21.2%). Fourth place went to former Vice President Kamala Harris (12.9%), who lost both the electoral college and national popular vote to Trump in 2024. Other contenders included Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (4.1%), New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (4.9%), and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (2.4%). Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer scored 1.1%, while Minnesota Governor and former Harris running mate Tim Walz, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), former Obama White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore all scored one percent or less. Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) was rated at zero percent support.

“The eventual Democrat nominee will likely be an AOC- or Newsom-type candidate who has a history on these issues so far to the left of the electorate that they will struggle to appeal to voters in the middle, the same voters they will need to win,” Carpenter commented.

Previously, Democratic Party strategists have suggested that Democrats have focused too extensively on opposition to Trump in their messaging, leaving the party vulnerable in 2028 when there will be no Trump to oppose. “You can’t win a presidential election on opposition alone,” said Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina, who warned that up to 90% of Democratic midterm voters will be motivated by opposition to Trump and his agenda, while only 10% to 15% will be voting to support Democratic Party principles and policy planks. “We cannot rely on that same calculation to win in 2028.”

Another Obama advisor, 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe, likewise cautioned Democrats to shift the focus of their rhetoric from Trump to GOP policies. “Democrats for the next decade have to be able to win elections in what are now red states in neutral and even challenging environments. That is the test,” he warned. “And anyone who thinks we are ready to do that is spending too much time inhabiting a political world that does not exist.”

During the 2024 presidential election cycle, pollster and analyst Nate Silver ranked AtlasIntel as one of the two most accurate polling firms, alongside Patriot Polling.