In deep-blue California, Republican voters are turning out in droves while their Democratic counterparts are lagging behind historical trends. According to numbers from the research firm Political Data Intelligence (PDI), Republicans make up more than one-third (37%) of returned mail-in ballots in the primaries ahead of November’s midterm elections, up by 11% from the same point in the 2022 midterms. While Republicans only account for 25% of the more than 900,000 ballots sent by mail, Democrats, who account for nearly half (45%) of all mail-in ballots in California, make up only 41% of returned mail-in ballots, down 13% from the same time in the 2022 midterms.

PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell suggested two possible reasons for the surge in red votes in the blue state. “Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate,” Mitchell said in an interview with the New York Post, noting that President Donald Trump and other top Republicans cast doubt upon the security of voting by mail following the 2020 presidential election. Mitchell also posited that maybe “some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two” in the primary.

Republicans hold the biggest leads currently in Orange County, where GOP voters have returned over 10,000 ballots more than Democrats have returned; in San Diego County, where Republican turnout is nearly double the rate of Democratic turnout so far; and in Los Angeles, where Republican turnout is double the rate of Democratic turnout, although Democrats hold a numerical advantage in voter registrations in the area.

One of the most closely-watched races in the Golden State this year is the gubernatorial election, where over 61 candidates are competing in the crowded jungle primary. Although Republicans have not won an election to a statewide office in two decades, fractures among the Democratic Party to find a successor to term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom (D) may result in a Republican advancing to the head-to-head election in November. According to an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll published last week, former President Joe Biden’s health secretary, Xavier Becerra, is in the lead with 19% support, while Democrat billionaire Tom Steyer and Republican political strategist Steve Hilton are tied for second place (17%), trailed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (11%), a Republican, and former congresswoman Katie Porter (10%), a Democrat. Twelve percent of polled voters are undecided.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that support for Becerra has increased by nine points since last month as Democrats coalesce around the former Biden administration official in a bid to shut out Republican contenders. Overall, nearly one-third (31%) of California Democrats back Becerra.

Another high-profile California race is the Los Angeles mayoral election, where Republican Spencer Pratt is battling to unseat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass (D). Emerson College reported that 30% of voters plan to support Bass, while 22% plan to support Pratt, and 19% back Indian-born city councilwoman Nithya Raman. Seven percent of L.A. voters said that they plan to vote for former tech executive Adam Miller, and 4% plan to vote for progressive community organizer Rae Huang.

A former reality television star, Pratt announced his candidacy for mayoralty in January, on the one-year anniversary of the Palisades Wildfire that destroyed his home and the houses of numerous other Los Angeles area residents. Bass and Newsom have both been faulted for their inaction in responding to the fire and for imposing numerous regulatory restrictions that have, in many cases, prevented those whose homes were destroyed from rebuilding. “We’re going to expose the system. We’re going into every dark corner of L.A. politics and disinfecting the city with our light,” Pratt said at a rally announcing his candidacy.

Pratt has campaigned heavily on pledges to increase funding for the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) and tackle drug crime, street violence, and homelessness, in addition to scaling back municipal regulation and gutting city diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) mandates. His campaign has been endorsed by both Republican gubernatorial candidates Hilton and Bianco, podcast host Joe Rogan, radio personality and comedian Adam Carolla, Hollywood actor James Woods, socialite Paris Hilton, and U.S. Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

Reflecting a national trend, most California voters (42%) rated the economy and affordability as their top concern, followed by housing affordability (21%), “threats to democracy” (nine percent), immigration (eight percent), healthcare (seven percent), and crime (six percent). The final day for voting in California’s primary elections is June 2, while statewide elections will be hosted on November 3.