Confidence is exploding among Democratic strategists and leaders — encouraged by “the blue wave is coming” analyses in mainstream media — that their party is going to score a huge victory to regain control of Congress when voters go to the polls in a month.

But surging Democratic confidence is starkly reminiscent of similar Republican optimism leading up to the 2022 mid-term election in which GOP leaders and conservative media outlets were convinced they were about to witness an historic electoral “red wave.”

Republican confidence was so strong four years ago that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich told Fox News’s Sean Hannity that “in the swing states, even The Washington Post last week reported that Republicans have had something like a 57-35 [lead] in the swing districts.”

Gingrich also pointed to “the two most successful models use historic data. … They predict 44-46 gained seats for the House.” The former speaker’s own prediction was that Republicans would pick up “20 to 50” House seats and “plus three to plus seven” in the Senate.

Similarly, then House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy saw a GOP gain of 63 seats, while Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) predicted a 30-50 seat GOP House pickup and a 54-seat Republican Senate majority. Fox News’s Jesse Waters summed it all up, saying, “We are looking at an historic, massive red wave coming.”

Only it didn’t, as the GOP gained a mere nine House seats and actually lost one Senate seat, thus preserving a 51-49 Democratic majority.

Such exuberant predictions aren’t quite as prevalent among Democrats in their public pronouncements today, but they are sufficiently ebullient to suggest their private expectations are even rosier.

Consider long-time Democratic strategist James Carville, who told an MS Now audience in early September that “there are eight Senate seats up for grabs, and I can’t imagine we don’t win at least seven of them.” And just last week, another veteran Democratic strategist, Paul Begala, told CNN’s “State of the Union” viewers that the 2026 midterms are “not going to be a win and it’s not going to be a wave. It’s going to be a wipeout.”

For Movement Voter Project (MVP) Founder and Executive Director Billy Wimsatt, writing in a September 24 memo to supporters, the November outlook is one promising either “a blue wave this fall — or a blue tsunami. Yes, there are states and districts where we are investing to hold a Democratic seat (the Michigan and New Hampshire Senate races top the list), but the vast majority of our is on flipping as many seats as possible. Think of this as a one-time ‘Going-Out-of-Business-Sale’ on GOP-held seats.”

Then there is CNN’s Chief Data Analyst, Harry Enten, who declared September 30 that “the Democratic wave ain’t going away. If anything, it seems to be building at this particular moment.” Key to this surge, according to Enten, is President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, especially since the Iran conflict began in February, sparking a crippling spiral in gas prices at the pump, and continuing worries about “affordability” in grocery prices.

But a deep dive into the data behind the recent Cook Political Report (CPR) analysis that gave a huge boost to Democratic optimism may provide strong grounds for seeing anything but a blue wave on November 3.

Reporter Erin Covey told CPR readers that “despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November. Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”

As a result, Covey sees Democrats picking up anywhere from five to 15 new House seats, giving them a 220 to 230-seat majority, much more than the mere three-seat gain they need to displace the current razor-thin GOP majority. But a GOP failure “to effectively stem the bleeding” could mean even bigger GOP losses.

The key point in Covey’s analysis is her contention that Trump is now “deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates” in toss-up races across the country. The multiple problems for Covey’s analysis are seen, however, in the CPR’s own data.

Consider that the two highest-ranking public officials on net favorability in the CPR are Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders and Republican Vice President J.D. Vance at 46%. Guess who comes next — Trump, close behind at 43%. Presidential favorability ratings are subject to multiple influences that don’t always shape voting decisions either way, but Democrats and media analysts seeing a potential blue wave in November still place Trump’s alleged unpopularity at the center of their projections.

In fact, Trump’s favorability has been remarkably steady throughout 2026, despite the repeated disappointments occasioned by incessant White House claims that Iran was ready “to make a deal” that has yet to materialize. In fact, based on the CPR figure of a 43% Trump favorability rating at present, the chief executive’s public position is stronger now than it was in January 2026 before the Iran conflict commenced, when it was 41%, according to Issues & Insights.

In addition, consider the 41% net favorability mark for MAGA-GOP voters and a potentially hugely different picture begins to take shape. At the very least, Trump’s consistent favorability rating suggests a strong base of public support that, combined with his proven record of generating GOP voter turnout, plus an historically huge GOP war chest available for the last month of the campaign, and suspicion grows that Democrats could well be whistling in the wind in expecting a blue wave.

But that’s not all in the CPR report that points to shallow support for Democratic optimism. Take the favorability ratings of the two parties in Congress. According to CPR, both Democrats and Republicans get a 41% net favorability mark. Plus, CPR’s September survey of the most competitive House races put Democrats at a 49-47% edge, within the margin of error.

Finally, look at how the “capitalism versus socialism” controversy appears to be playing in voters’ minds, according to CPR. The net favorability of capitalism stands at 63%, compared to 32% for socialism and 30% for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). In other words, despite months of mostly uncritical mainstream media coverage and the success of multiple DSA and otherwise-socialist candidates in Democratic primaries, capitalism remains twice as popular with voters.

The bottom line here is that one month out, most of the House seats rated as toss-ups and most of the key seven Senate contests could still go either way. Senate races in Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas are all within the margin of error. Only in North Carolina are there comfortable margins for former Governor Roy Cooper, who has consistently led former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. On the House side, 16 of CPR’s “toss-up” races are in districts currently held by Republicans, with six held by Democrats.

Trump’s endorsement typically proved decisive in GOP primaries, and he generated record turnouts in the seven key swing states of the 2024 presidential race. Midterm turnouts are traditionally much lower than presidential years, but Trump is now planning campaign rallies in 35 of the closest contests and pledges to spend up to $500 million of the funds he controls on behalf of GOP candidates.

In other words, stand by because at this point in the campaign, the outcome of the 2026 midterm election is anybody’s guess.