On Monday, President Donald Trump touched down at Etimesgut Air Base aboard a freshly minted, Qatari-gifted Air Force One. His visit to the Turkish capital for the 2026 NATO Summit has quickly shifted the point of balance for Western defense politics. The stakes the alliance will face this week could not be higher. As transatlantic frictions continue to linger over defense spending and European theater conflicts, NATO’s 32 member states have all arrived in Ankara for a gathering that some fear may push the alliance to its limits.

Before any action towards multilateral negotiation has taken place, Trump has made it clear that his presence in Turkey was less about the alliance and more about his relationship with the summit’s host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The Bilateral Handshake

The president’s two-day visit began at Erdogan’s sprawling presidential palace, where he was met by an honor guard clad in historical warrior attire. It was the epitome of political theater tailored specifically to Trump. Flanked by Erdogan before reporters, Trump boldly voiced his skepticism of the greater NATO alliance, bucking the norms of traditional American foreign policy protocol.

“I was very disappointed with NATO,” Trump said candidly. “And if it weren’t held in Turkey, where my friend happens to be a very strong leader, a very strong person, it’s possible that I wouldn't have attended. I felt I had to attend.”

This praise was soon followed by geopolitical concessions between the two countries. Trump revealed that the U.S. would repeal economic sanctions imposed on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. In addition, he indicated the potential for a reversal of the 2019 ban preventing Turkey from purchasing F-35 fighter jets, which at the time was sparked by the purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems.

“We’re going to be taking the sanctions off,” Trump told reporters. “It’s time to do that. Okay? We don’t want to sanction friends. It’s very simple.” He added that Turkey “frankly has been more helpful to the United States than many other more traditional countries.” 

Flattery and Loyalty

Tuesday evening saw a shift in diplomatic ambience, as Erdogan hosted the leaders’ dinner in the palace’s “Winter Garden.” The guest list had several names of leaders whose countries are currently not NATO members, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine. 

While the night was steeped in Turkish hospitality, the main topic of conversation persisted in what the structure of Western defense burden-sharing will look like in the future. Behind closed doors, European diplomats have attempted to placate Trump with proposed balance sheets. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently praised European allies and Canada for taking on 20% more on defense across the past two years combined, netting an extra $139 billion. 

Several European leaders have allegedly shown up to the Summit armed with a spread of massive numbers and several already signed arms contracts to prove their commitment to the defense of Europe, which, according to Trump, will fall short of what he expects of these states. Ahead of the trip, Trump spoke to Rutte, talking at length about wanting more than money; he wanted their “loyalty.” 

These conversations over dinner emphasize a drastic philosophical rift. While European nations view their significant increases in defense as a considerable sacrifice to save the alliance, Trump sees them merely as overdue payments from overdependent partners.

What to Expect

With the main sessions soon commencing, the battleground these leaders will need to navigate will center around the creation of defense spending targets. At the end of the 2025 summit in The Hague, NATO members agreed to a nominal target of investing 5% of their GDPs into multilateral defense by 2035.

Rutte has encouraged leaders to present “clear, concrete, and credible plans” to achieve these goals. “President Trump fully expects that all allies will step up immediately and get on the path to 5% and do it with urgency,” Rutte shared with the press.

Although nations like Germany have taken to defending their budgets — with Chancellor Friedrich Merz deeming it “the greatest effort we have ever made to strengthen our defense capabilities” — the U.S. administration remains skeptical. The summit is also likely to ratify a largely symbolic $90 billion aid package for Ukraine, as it is largely an accounting of pre-existing promises rather than a new advancement.

The Ankara Summit is the epitome of lopsided diplomacy. European states have begun spending billions in defense contracts to preserve the U.S.’s protective umbrella. Trump has used the trip to strengthen ties with an unlikely ally, directly challenge European partners, and rewrite the rules of traditional international solidarity. As the Summit proceedings continue, the alliance’s future rests heavily on whether European allies can successfully meet Trump’s definition of loyalty.