The USS Gerald R. Ford has called at the Souda Bay naval base in Crete, according to international press reports, taking America’s largest aircraft carrier away from the Persian Gulf combat zone while Trump negotiates with the Iranian regime. Withdrawing such a large military asset from the region could signal an administration pivot to diplomacy, or it could merely indicate the U.S. military refitting its assets for another assault.

The Navy insists that the USS Ford “remains fully mission capable,” but a port call was necessary after a March 12 fire in the ship’s laundry room injured two crew members and damaged around 100 beds. The carrier has been at sea for nine months, sailing first to Europe, then to the Caribbean, and now to the Middle East, as President Trump demonstrates both the maneuverability and firepower of the U.S. Navy.

The port call comes amid renewed negotiations, after President Trump called off a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face infrastructure bombing after “very good and productive” conversations with the Iranian regime. On Monday, Trump countermanded his 48-hour ultimatum with a five-day pause, giving a short runway to see if diplomacy will bear fruit. The U.S. is reportedly pursuing closed-door discussions with Iran through third-party nations like Turkey, with an in-person meeting in Pakistan proposed later this week.

“I think there’s a serious effort here,” Lt. Col. (Ret.) Bob Maginnis, FRC’s senior fellow for national security, said on Monday’s “Washington Watch,” but “we’ll have to wait and see whether or not we can reach a compromise that would be good for the Iranian people, good for the United States in the Middle East.”

“It’s good that the president is doing everything diplomatically to resolve this,” Maginnis added. “There’s a lot at stake, not only for the West and for the Middle East, but also for the Iranians. And perhaps they think that the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] can survive. And it’s quite possible if they’re negotiating with Trump that something could replace the current level of hostilities.”

Based on public reporting, the two sides seem as far apart as ever from a negotiated solution. As a condition for any deal, Iran is reportedly demanding America and Israel pledge not to launch future attacks, plus compensation for damages sustained during the conflict. The U.S. still wants the Iranian regime to dismantle its secret nuclear weapons program, suspend its ballistic missile program, and withdraw support for terrorist proxies.

Officially, some mouthpieces for the Iranian regime still deny that any negotiations are taking place. Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, anonymously proposed as one possible participant in negotiations, stated publicly, “Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors.” He denied that there were negotiations with the U.S., arguing that optimism about such negotiations “is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped.”

Almost immediately in the conflict, the Iranian regime abandoned any hope of militarily resisting the combined might of the U.S. and Israel. Instead, they have pursued a strategy of “asymmetric warfare,” Maginnis noted, targeting regional energy infrastructure and effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil production must pass to reach global markets. “That could just ruin that entire region and … result in many decades of trying to recover from this war.”

This make-everyone-suffer strategy certainly got the attention of Iran’s Arab neighbors, turning them swiftly against Iran as missiles fell on their hotels and power plants. It also got the attention of America’s tardy European allies, compelling them to reluctantly support America’s campaign, even as they fear the rogue missile that might reach a swanky capital like Paris or London — a capability Iran demonstrated with an intercepted projectile fired at the Diego Garcia air force base in the Indian Ocean.

“At least the U.K. and the French are signing up to help patrol the Straits of Hormuz,” said Maginnis. That should help lighten the load for the USS Abraham Lincoln, the lone U.S. aircraft carrier left in the region. “I see that NATO, grudgingly — much like we brought them into Afghanistan — will, in one way or another, become involved at least in securing the straits and doing perhaps post-war reconstruction. … It’s the reality that we’re dealing with because these allies — they’re somewhat tepid in their support of robust military operations.”

However, the USS Ford’s departure from the theater does not mean that the U.S. is drawing down its forces. Over the weekend, the Pentagon sent 4,500 sailors and Marines to the Middle East, supported by helicopters, fighting jets, and armored landing vehicles. Such forces would be “ready to go and perhaps seize Kharg Island, or to secure the eastern coast of the Strait of Hormuz, so that we can really get the movement of Iran, as well as [allow] Saudi and other oil [to pass] through the Straits without interference,” Maginnis proposed. On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that roughly 3,000 paratroopers would also deploy to the Middle East “in the coming hours.”

These troop mobilizations suggest a different interpretation of the president’s thinking. The “five days the president has given us gives us more time to move the Marines in, more time to move the allies in from Europe,” Maginnis suggested.

In other words, the U.S. may be using the five-day breather afforded by negotiations to reposition, refit, and prepare for another devastating assault — perhaps with ground troops. Maginnis imagined the U.S. might pull back its forces “in time,” but not as soon as Friday, when the five-day timer expires. America’s Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, in the Persian Gulf where the U.S. maintains 18 military bases in the region, and American allies (or partners, at least) like Saudi Arabia still have more to contribute. No, the area is far too important for the U.S. to pull out now — even if the U.S. had a president who wanted to precipitate a total defeat.

Instead, Maginnis hypothesized that Trump would only pull out once all his objectives were met. “I think the Strait of Hormuz will be secure. That’s the bottom line for the president. I don’t think that Iran will have a nuclear program going forward. … I don’t know if there’s going to be a regime change. Some of these bad people might still be left in charge, but they’ll be significantly humbled.”

Indeed, Iran’s Arab neighbors are pushing the U.S. to finish the job, notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler. While the president’s picture has soured domestically, this regional support could propel him to follow through.

A final factor nudging the U.S. toward continued operations is the lack of clarity over who is running Iran. The ostensible new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen or heard from throughout the war except for two written messages, leading American and Israeli intelligence officials to conclude that he is “wounded, isolated and not responding to messages being relayed to him.” Most other senior Iranian officials have been assassinated, making it difficult for third-party nations to even establish contact.

The lack of leadership in Iran calls into question both any official’s authority to negotiate a treaty and Iran’s ability to respond to further military action. In light of this, President Trump may proceed with attacks until someone within Iran has the wherewithal to raise a white flag.