Is the cost of oil the only measure of success in wartime? The U.S. national average price for retail gasoline rose to $4.06 per gallon Wednesday, as the Iran war continues to block oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But experts allege that high prices may simply be a market scare, and that the highly visible numbers may be less costly to the United States over the long run than leaving the regime intact.

“It’s inflation psychology,” argued Brigham A. McCown, senior fellow and director of the Initiative on American Energy Security at the Hudson Institute, on “Washington Watch.” “What starts as a naval choke point … becomes a budget story within days.” With “asymmetric warfare, it is relatively easier for an adversary to shut something down” because they “don’t have to physically prevent freighters and tankers from moving through the Strait,” he said. Rather, “it’s the threat” of an attack that makes transporting cargo cost-prohibitive “because [of] war risk insurance.”

McCown estimates that “oil is overpriced for the U.S.” because America’s oil supply is not in jeopardy. “We’re not running out of oil. In fact, of the 20 million barrels a day that come out of the Strait of Hormuz, most of that goes to China and India. The U.S. gets less than 2% of that oil.”

“What Americans are primarily feeling today [is] driven by a fuel shock, not an electricity crisis, not a natural gas crisis,” he explained. “We’re not facing an immediate U.S. crude oil shortage, but the Strait of Hormuz creates global pricing and confidence shock that moves markets.”

McCown compared the situation to the summer of 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine temporarily hindered Black Sea oil production, leading to a similar price shock. “After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, gas moved above $4 nationally and even briefly approached $5. So we’re not in unseen territory. But, if this were the early 2000s — or God forbid the 1970s — we’d be in a lot worse shape.”

The reason why the U.S. is in a better position to survive an oil price shock now is that, “under the policies of the previous Trump administration, we positioned ourselves in a much better energy position,” said FRC President Tony Perkins. The U.S. is far less dependent on foreign sources of oil today than it was a decade ago.

Notwithstanding these facts, “markets and analysts move more quickly than barrels,” maintained McCown. “We hear that oil is fungible; it can be used anywhere — I’ve even said it — it’s a global commodity. That’s true, and it’s not true. Because different oil has different viscosities, different ratings, different densities. And that also assumes that we have an infrastructure and transportation system that can very easily move barrels around anywhere in the world. That’s not the case.” The Strait of Hormuz is a case in point.

Still, the tepid support Americans show for the military assault on Iran is primarily informed by high gas prices — an obvious, immediate cost laid against a long-term, distant threat. “Unfortunately, we’re focused on the short term,” Perkins lamented. “But, long-term, if we don’t finish the work that we started there, the end [result] could be much worse than the former.”

The bottom line is that the Islamist regime in Tehran has posed a constant threat to American lives ever since it seized power. “Every single president has said that they wanted to deal with Iran, and that Iran needed to be dealt with. This is the only one that’s been willing to do it,” argued Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) on “Washington Watch.” Furthermore, it happened “at a very critical time, not only with nuclear capability, but importantly, the ability to protect that in their missile shield that they were constructing.”

“Let’s not forget,” he added, “the thousands upon thousands of American lives that have been taken or have been significantly disfigured, the pain and suffering, especially of American service members, at the hands of Iran for the last 47 years. They’ve been directly responsible for it. And that is a cost that is not being measured” but is “quite honestly exceptionally expensive.”

Perkins agreed, adding that he “sent a letter to the president just encouraging him to stay the course, appreciating the leadership that he’s provided on this, despite the polling in the opposite direction. … Sometimes leadership has to do what they know is right based upon the information they have. … You don’t need too much information to realize what you just described as the threat that Iran has been for over 40 years.”

Not only have a number of American leaders urged Trump to follow through on his swing, but even “our Gulf allies have expressed concern that the president might wind down the effort too soon,” he added. The United Arab Emirates, which has borne the brunt of Iran’s unprovoked missile attacks, is actively seeking other countries to join a coalition to force the Strait of Hormuz open.

Fortunately, following through “is exactly what we’re doing, degrading Iran’s capability to attack surface vessels in the straits,” McCown mentioned. “In the 1980s, we had a naval operation to keep the Straits open from the same people, Iran. So, this isn’t new, and I think we’re actually ahead of schedule, but it’s going to take another two to three weeks to get this cleaned up.”

Perry offered a complementary assessment, “principally, Iran has to have their ability to attack foreign countries in the region especially, but just about anybody in general,” degraded. “Also, the free transition of trade through their area, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, but generally through the area includes the Houthis and, of course, Hezbollah, Hamas, all that, the whole area — Iran needs to not be able to influence them militarily with terror.”

Secondly, “we need a different style of governance in Iran. We need a different mindset, one that doesn’t seek to terrorize the world. The one that doesn’t seek to impose its jihadist will by the sword,” Perry added.

However, on the second point, he added, “that’s up to Iran to decide. … We’re not here to build the United States in the Middle East. But we’re no longer going to accept them threatening us, and killing our people, and continuing to be the greatest terrorist state in the world.” Compared to this objective, a few weeks of high gas prices seems a small price to pay.