Donald Trump’s second administration opened like a flash of lightning. It’s shaking the American political establishment by making the use of USAID funds transparent, reversing the Biden administration’s open border policy, and appointing a cabinet that promises to make America healthy again and focus the defense machinery on lethality and dismantling discriminatory ideas such as diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).

The steps have been so many and at such speed, that a disorientation is perceptible among the major media outlets. They have not managed to find a common focus to gun for.

But beyond internal politics, with the United States being the global power, what prospects are there for the American continent from the change in the White House?

From Miami, political scientist Julio M. Shiling has dedicated himself for years to monitoring the issue. Lecturer, author of 14 books, and media commentator, he runs the websites Patria de Martí and The Cuban American Voice. He has a Master’s degree in Political Science from Florida International University and is a member of The American Political Science Association, the PEN Club of Cuban Writers and the Academy of Cuban History, both in exile.

Here is part one of my interview with Julio.

In the case of Venezuela, the regime has reacted to the Trump administration in a very measured tone, without the grandiloquent bravado that it had with other previous administrations. Why is that?

The reaction we have seen from the Maduro regime in Venezuela is attributed to the reality that continental socialism, like many other liberticidal regimes, is afraid of the new United States government. That is why it is exercising great reserve, a calculated prudence, if you will.

Do you think that the positive reception of criminals to be deported like those of Tren de Aragua can become a reality?

Yes, of course. The Maduro regime, Castro-communism — neither of them will be able or willing to take a confrontational stance at any cost. They do not have the resources or the support of a foreign power that is willing to confront the United States at this time. They will have to give in on that.

What do you think awaits the Daniel Ortega regime in Nicaragua, another key ally of Castro and Maduro?

In the new Donald Trump administration, the direction of foreign policy is largely designed by [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio — who was already an advisor on Latin America to Trump since 2016.

He has an understanding that Nicaragua, as well as Venezuela and Bolivia (and we can include there Gustavo Petro, in Colombia, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in Brazil) are neo-colonies of communist Cuba. We see in these nations behaviors in line with the dictates of Havana.

These regimes and governments allied to Cuban communism will not take a course that deviates from the script that Havana has already prepared even in reaction to this second Trump administration that, without a doubt, has a very different approach to the previous government.

The case of Sandinocommunism, something that some also call Orteguism, is a case that offers us lessons as to what not to do. In Nicaragua, after the electoral defeat of the Sandinista National Liberation Front, none of the subsequent democratic governments carried out a process of transitional justice. That was a serious mistake. As empirical evidence shows us, in dictatorial regimes of this kind, when the process of democratization lacks mechanisms of justice that investigate the past, hold criminals accountable, and take prudent measures of lustration, despotism returns to power later, in a varied but essentially liberticidal form as well.

As you mentioned, we have seen the Trump administration put U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America in the hands of several Cuban Americans. From the ambassadors to Argentina, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Spain, to Mauricio Claver-Carone as the person in charge of Latin American Affairs, and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Why is this happening?

Very true. And the explanation is simple. President Trump has a special affinity with Cubans. First, many Cubans, as an ethnic minority group in the United States, supported Donald Trump in his reelection.

And this goes back many years, even before the announcement that he formally made to enter politics as a presidential candidate. He had that relationship, if we recall, from an event at the Brigade 2506 Museum in Miami, where Trump made a very forceful statement in favor of the cause of Cuban freedom.

There has always been a special place, I dare say, for the president towards Cubans and, I believe, an extraordinary reciprocity of support from Cubans and Cuban Americans towards him and the Make America Great Again movement in general.

Another thing that must also be a factor in the number of diplomatic appointments is the achievements of Cubans and Cuban Americans in the United States in all social spheres. It is something that a person who appreciates the issue of meritocracy as much as Trump has also earned respect for, and he is reacting accordingly.

The opening of the southern border of the United States during the Biden administration made it possible for millions of individuals to enter the country. The identities of many have not been verified. Among them, repressors and spokesmen for the Castro regime entered the country. Do you think there is a solution to deport this mass of individuals who did so much harm in Cuba?

Mass immigration is an instrument of war used extensively by Castroism. That has always been the case for several reasons.

First, because it violates the law and gives the Castro regime a voice in the face of the United States.

Second, more recently, Havana sees it as a transfer of its labor force to the United States, with a view to the resources they will receive in terms of remittances and, since they control the entry of Cubans to the island, it is a way of domesticating, of establishing a loyal immigration that will not join public demonstrations of opposition — although deep down they criticize and do not sympathize with Cuban communism — because they want to be able to re-enter the country.

What I am explaining is the expectation, it does not necessarily mean that it will happen. But this is the subversive purpose: to impact the policy of the United States by launching a mass of people on the southern border.

As to whether so many people can be deported, the United States has several precedents. In 1954, in one year, the government of Dwight Eisenhower deported more than a million people.

And this kind of procedure is a commitment of the new government, because the fact that millions have entered the United States from all over the world, in an uncontrolled manner, has had an impact. We all know the levels of crime, the inflationary factor, particularly in housing, the fact that public resources have been disproportionately favored to illegal immigrants, versus citizens of this country, such as those affected by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina.

The popular pulse of the United States is in favor of deporting those who enter illegally, especially those who later committed crimes.

There may be resistance from Castroism or its neo-colonies in the Caribbean. On the other hand, I don’t think it will be easy to find and deport 10 or 15 million people. At least now the entry through the southern border has practically stopped.

In a first phase, those who have committed other crimes will be deported, but these actions will continue, because it is a way of reinforcing the rule of law.

We will also see cases of people who come to the United States claiming that they are suffering political persecution, and this gives them the privilege of receiving entry and asylum under that argument, that they will be conditioned not to return to the country from which they say they are fleeing, for a period of 10 years. Marco Rubio has referred to this issue for a while, and it is possible that it will be put on the table soon.

On the issue of sanctions against Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, what do you think will be the direction that the administration will take?

In fact, that is already being developed. Not long ago, Rubio met with his counterpart in Argentina to establish alliances in the confrontation with continental socialism.

For example, if Jair Bolsonaro is elected as president in Brazil, he will be another ally of the Trump administration. It is rumored that, if he runs, he would win the presidency again.

We will see that, in fact, another of the fronts that the United States is going to focus on is looking for ways to solve the problem of drug trafficking, which influences to some extent the issue of mass exoduses. And the essence of both things has a name and surname: to a large extent the role of continental socialism.

So the solution is to produce regime change. And we will see a much more aggressive policy seeking that end; to confront the fact that communist Cuba is the head of that evil throughout the continent. There is no doubt about that.

Read part two