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Bolton: Conditions ‘Favorable’ for Iranian Leadership Change, But U.S. Must Remain Wary

July 1, 2025

As the dust settles from the historic U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities last week, questions linger over how extensive the damage was to the Islamist theocracy’s nuclear program and whether the strike will trigger a change in leadership within Iran, which has been ruled with an iron fist by the ayatollah regime for 46 years.

Reports surfaced Tuesday that the regime has arrested hundreds of people and executed at least six amid a far-reaching crackdown in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on dozens of military and nuclear program targets. Human rights groups and local media say that over 700 have been arrested, with “credible reports of hundreds more arrested in Tehran.” According to The Washington Post, the arrests and executions have “raised fears inside Iran that a new wave of repression is coming, as the government seeks to root out spy networks and clamp down on any dissent among the wider population.”

Meanwhile, assessments of how complete the destruction was to Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities as a result of the U.S.’s June 22 strike continue to shift. President Trump once again insisted over the weekend that the nuclear program was “obliterated like nobody’s ever seen before.” But on Sunday, Rafael Mariano, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that the damage done to the three key Iranian facilities was “severe” but “not total.” Mariano further asserted that the Islamist regime may be able to continue enriching uranium again in “a matter of months.” Some experts say that a definitive evaluation of the extent of the damage could take weeks or longer.

John Bolton, who formerly served as national security adviser during President Trump’s first term, assessed the situation during “This Week on Capitol Hill” over the weekend.

“I think [the U.S. strike] was exactly the right thing to do,” he contended. “If anything, it’s long overdue. The threat that Iran poses by its efforts to gain deliverable nuclear weapons really is a global proliferation threat. Iran is not simply Israel’s problem. It’s really America’s problem, the whole world’s problem. So working together with Israel, I think we’ve really set back the Iranian nuclear program very considerably. There’s a huge debate in Washington about exactly how much. … I think we’ll learn more as time goes on.”

Bolton continued, “But however successful the attack was, it didn’t end the program. I think as long as the Islamic Revolution of 1979 is still in charge in Iran … it will remain their objective to get deliverable nuclear weapons. So, a setback here for that effort? Yes. Conclusive and final? No. And the regime is still in place.”

Bolton, who formerly served as ambassador to the United Nations during the George W. Bush administration, went on to argue that the current conditions within Iran are advantageous for leadership change.

“Look, I think that as long as the current regime in Tehran stays in power, that there’s really no chance for sustainable peace and security in the region,” he surmised. “… [A]ctually, conditions inside Iran today are very favorable for regime change. I think the regime is extremely unpopular on economic reasons, on social reasons, on various forms of repression that they’ve been engaged in. And I think the opposition inside and outside Iran, among the Iranian diaspora, really has the regime in a very difficult place. In addition, of course, the Ayatollah Khomeini, who is only the second supreme leader, is in his mid-80s. He’s not well, and you can already see the signs of a potentially very destabilizing succession challenge below him. So I think we should try and help out. You know, regime change is a bad word in many circles. In this case, it does not come anywhere close to meaning boots on the ground. I think we can provide support to the opposition and hope that it will be primarily an internal Iranian affair.”

Bolton further noted that the setback that Iran has experienced could stabilize the Middle East. “The regime of the ayatollah right now is on its back, and we owe a lot of that to Israel for pummeling the terrorist surrogates, these radical extremists and Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis,” he observed. “The dictatorial Assad regime in Syria has fallen. We don’t know necessarily enough about the new government there, but it certainly didn’t do anything to come to Iran’s aid during the Israeli attack. This is potentially a moment when you really could see change in Iran to help alleviate … the threat of terrorism all around the region.”

Looking toward the future in the Middle East, Bolton expressed optimism for Israel’s prospects for peace but also urged the U.S. to keep close tabs on Iran.

“I think there’s a possibility that we’ll see further diplomatic recognition for Israel granted by Arab states — more Abraham Accords, the first of which were negotiated during Trump’s first term,” he predicted. “I think that would be very important. I think these are steps toward a more normal and a more peaceful Middle East. And I think it’s a signal really around the whole region and globally that things are continuing to change there at a very rapid rate. We should support that. And at the same time, we should keep a very, very close eye through intelligence and cooperation with others on what’s happening inside Iran to make sure they’re not trying to revive that nuclear weapons program.”

Dan Hart is senior editor at The Washington Stand.



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