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Will Trump’s Tariffs Spur a Recession or Make America Great Again? Experts Weigh In.

April 7, 2025

The new tariff rates announced by President Donald Trump last week have provoked a variety of reactions across the U.S. and across the globe, with some praising the president’s economic nationalism and predicting a bright future for American trade and manufacturing, while others have expressed concerns about the potential short-term impacts.

Trump announced his sweeping tariffs plan on Wednesday, dubbing it “Liberation Day.” The White House explained the impact of “Liberation Day” in a statement: “After being sold out by career politicians for generations, President Trump is enacting fair trade policies that will restore our workforce, rebuild our economy, and finally put America First.”

Many conservatives have praised the president’s use of tariffs as an effort to restore balance to global trade which has far too often taken advantage of America’s economy. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a social media post, “These tariffs restore fair and reciprocal trade and level the playing field for American workers and innovators. The President understands that FREE trade ONLY works when it’s FAIR!” He added, “America will not be exploited by unfair trade practices anymore.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) thanked the president “for putting America’s workers and innovators first with reciprocal tariffs that level the playing field and make trade FAIR.” He quipped, “The United States and American workers will no longer be ripped off by other countries with unfair trade practices.”

Other prominent House Republicans reinforced Johnson’s and Scalise’s statements. Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.) commented, “If you want access to the most powerful economy in the world, treat us fairly. If not, don’t expect a free ride.” Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) related, “For decades, America has been ripped off by other countries who have repeatedly slapped tariffs on our goods, blocked our products, and flooded our markets with theirs. The numbers don’t lie — the rest of the world has profited at the expense of American workers and businesses.” He added that many commentators “fail to realize” that the president’s “reciprocal tariffs are a long-overdue response to years of unfair trade policies against America.”

On Friday night’s episode of “Washington Watch,” Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) joined his fellow House Republicans in touting the president’s tariffs, offering his own assessment and some predictions for both the short-term impact and long-term benefits. Weber asked, “Remember the Boston Tea Party? Of course we do. Well, there’s a ‘T’ in this too. It’s the awesome ‘T’ as in ‘Tariffs’ party.” He continued, “We are trying to get back in the saddle, back in control again of our economy. For generations, countries have taken advantage of the United States, raising their tariff rates. Never mind … how much their tariffs are on the United States.”

The congressman pointed out, “Right now, we, the United States, impose a 2.5% tariff on passenger vehicle imports with internal combustion engines. The European Union and India impose 10% and 70%, respectively. Higher import duties on the same product. Let that sink in — 2.5% for us, 10% for the European Union, 70% for India.” He added, “The trade imbalance has been going on for way too long.”

“What I believe God gave us is the best country in the history of the planet. Our country has gotten so off track and — thank God — on November 5 of last year, enough people had enough sense to vote Trump back in because he’s going to put us back on that path God intended for us to be on,” Weber opined. He also acknowledged that while the trade conflict initially spurred by the president’s plan with tariffs may temporarily raise the prices of imported goods, the congressman anticipated that the long-term benefits to the American economy and industry would outweigh the temporary pain. “Yes, it’s going to take some time. Yes, there’s going to be manufacturers that don’t like it. But you know what? This is about the American people in the long run; this is about getting our trade balance back on track,” he said.

In response to the president increasing tariffs, China increased the tariffs already imposed on the U.S. by 34%. Trump quickly announced that he would add 50% to the tariffs he had just increased against China unless the country was willing to discuss lowering trade deficits. “We have a $1 trillion trade deficit with China. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose to China, and unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One. He continued, “I’m willing to make a deal with China, but they have to solve this surplus. We have a tremendous deficit problem with China. … I want that solved.” Explaining that a “deficit is a loss,” Trump added, “We’re going to have surpluses, or we’re, at worst, going to be breaking even. But China would be the worst in the group because the deficit is so big, and it’s not sustainable.” But other countries, he reported, are “dying” to work with Trump to lower tariffs and foster fair trade.

In an interview Sunday, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins reported that at least 50 countries set to be impacted by the president’s tariffs announcement have already “come to the table over the last few days” and “are willing and desperate to talk to us. We are the economic engine of the world, and it’s finally time that someone, President Trump, stood up for America.” Rollins explained, “This whole concept is about rebuilding an American economy around American goods, around American industry. We do already live under a tariff regime in this country, but it’s the tariff regime of China, of Mexico, of Brazil, of Australia…” She noted, “Mexico won’t take our corn, Australia won’t take our beef. The country of Honduras takes more [American] pork than the entire European Union does. … So, from our farming and ranching perspective, which is what I’m focused on … it is time for a change.”

Following the president’s “Liberation Day” announcement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stipulated that the European Union (EU) is prepared to negotiate “zero-for-zero” tariffs for industrial goods with the U.S. She admitted that the EU already deals in zero-for-zero tariffs with “many other countries,” although the EU has been charging the U.S. 39% tariffs for years, nearly double the 20% that the U.S. is preparing to charge European countries and over 13 times the less-than-3% that the U.S. currently charges. However, von der Leyen added that the EU is “also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests” should the U.S. be unwilling to negotiate. In a Truth Social post aimed at China, Trump warned that “any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set.”

While many have celebrated the president’s “Liberation Day” agenda, some experts have warned that raising tariffs on other nations will likely result in temporary economic difficulties, especially when dealing with nations that refuse to negotiate with the U.S. or corporations that continue outsourcing and offshoring jobs. David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, addressed some of these concerns on Saturday’s episode of “This Week on Capitol Hill.”

Bahnsen observed that there are “two different economic people involved” who may be impacted by the president’s tariffs. “We have a lot of workers in America that might work on making things, and perhaps some jobs would benefit from tariffs here. But we have an awful lot of Americans who work in services, and America is the largest exporter of services in the world by far,” the economics expert said. He warned that “those jobs could be threatened” if foreign nations do not negotiate with the U.S. He added, “We also, of course, make things here that we sell. Our exports are up 400% in the last 30 years. So — as there always is with federal government intervention in the economy — there’s often winners and losers.”

Bahnsen said that he has witnessed “a lot of uncertainty” in the economy following the “Liberation Day” announcements. He continued, “Not only is there the cost of tariffs that end up working their way through the economy — higher car prices, higher grocery prices — but there’s also a lack of economic decision-making being made by businesses, that could very well tip us into recession this summer.” He explained that, because of uncertainty over how new tariffs will impact the global market, “Businesses are not likely to go invest in new factories, new orders, what we call new capital goods. That’s where I think you’re going to see a decline. And that could tip us into recession.”

“Ultimately, a lot of companies won’t bring things back on shore right now. It takes years and years to do some of that and billions of dollars,” Bahnsen anticipated. He also noted that “none of this is being done by Congress. This is all being done by executive order from the White House.” Thus, he explained, “Many of these companies know that there’s going to be a new president in three years — they don’t have to go invest in a 10-year project. So I’m not really convinced that it will bring a lot [of jobs] back on shore, but I do believe that’s the president’s intent.”

Bahnsen further predicted that the “best-case scenario” once the president’s tariffs go into effect will be “a tighter economy,” but warned, “I think that the odds are increasing that we end up dipping into a recession, and certainly higher prices are going to be a part of it.” He explained, “Some are probably thinking right now, ‘Okay, we’re going to have higher prices, a really bad stock market, and then perhaps a mild recession, but, in the end, all these jobs will come back.’ I think that’s the problem is that there’s going to be a lot of disappointment because it’s more complicated than just simply flicking a light switch.”

The economics author pointed out, “There’s a reason a lot of those things went to Mexico and South Korea and other places: it’s just simply cheaper to make it there. We get copper from a lot of places around the world, far cheaper than we could ever get it here, and lumber from Canada.”

Others, however, have predicted that the president’s increased tariffs will not result in recession, although there may be superficial short-term economic difficulties. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday, “There doesn’t have to be a recession. Who knows how the market is going to react in a day, in a week? What we are looking at is building the long-term economic fundamentals for prosperity.” Referring to changes in the stock market, he added that most Americans “don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations” of the market. “In fact, most Americans don’t have everything in the market. People have a long-term view,” Bessent said, specifically referring to concerns that retirement plans and investment portfolios will be decimated. He continued, “The reason the stock market is considered a good investment is because it’s a long-term investment. If you look day to day, week to week, it’s very risky. Over the long term, it’s a good investment.” The president’s tariffs agenda is a “long-term” investment in the nation’s future, the Treasury Secretary explained, adding that there will be “an adjustment process.” He continued, “What we saw with President [Ronald] Reagan when he brought down the great inflation, and we got past the [President Jimmy] Carter malaise, there was some choppiness at that time, but he held the course, and we’re going to hold the course.”

Trump himself has admitted that economic prospects may look frightening in the short-term but will pay off in the long-term. He explained that the trade imbalance should have been rectified “DECADES AGO” and urged Americans, “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” The president declared, “THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic. We will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”

Appearing on “Washington Watch” last week, economist Spencer Morrison, author of “Reshore: How Tariffs Will Bring Our Jobs Home and Revive the American Dream,” explained that Trump’s tariffs are “realigning the global trade networks away from the capital interests that benefit from offshoring and in favor of the American workers. “So what this is going to do is this is going to reshore factories to our country and all of the jobs that come with them.” He anticipated that, due to the president’s use of tariffs, anywhere from 10 to 15 million new American jobs will be generated. He added, “And these are going to be jobs that are concentrated in lucrative industries, jobs with health benefits, the sort of jobs that we can support families on just like we used to.”

Morrison also anticipated that most countries will negotiate with the president to lower their own tariffs against the U.S. rather than risk even higher tariffs being imposed. “There [are] really two options for foreign nations to respond to these tariffs. They could respond by raising tariffs of their own. But you have to remember, the tariffs that President Trump has instituted are only half of the average rate anyway. So I don’t think that’s going to be a very productive way of handling things,” he said. He continued, “The other and probably more likely option is that these countries are simply going to do the math. They’re going to realize that America is the biggest consumer market on planet Earth, and their economies need us far more than we need them.” He added, “What I expect is that a lot of countries are going to open up their markets to American goods, and that’s going to help create millions and millions of new jobs by opening up billions of potential consumers for our products. So I think that’s the most likely outcome.”

However, like the president and even his staunchest allies, Morrison admitted that Americans may experience some short-term economic changes before enjoying the long-term benefits of tariffs. “I think it’s important to put this in context: this whole process of offshoring and the race to the bottom, it started in 1974. We’ve been at this for over 50 years,” Morrison said. He went on, “So to think that any president, no matter how competent they are, is going to be able to solve this overnight in the space of a few months is crazy talk. It took us half a century to get here, it’s going to take some time to adjust.” He continued, “I think there’s going to be some short-term pain.”

Morrison pointed out, though, that the economy “is an organic system. It’s not like a mechanical system, like a washing machine where you input in and you get the output you’re expecting.” He explained, “Organic systems like the human body or like society or the economy respond to stressors in different ways. Typically, a stressor creates a positive strengthening response. So I think we’re going to see some short-term pain, and that’s okay because we’re going to emerge on the other end stronger than ever before.”

White House senior counselor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro suggested in a recent interview that the revenue generated by increased tariffs will be used to pay off the national debt and give Americans increased tax breaks. Navarro anticipated that the president’s use of tariffs will earn anywhere from $600 billion to $700 billion for the U.S. annually and as much as $7 trillion over the next 10 years. “They’re going to help pay for the tax cuts,” the economist said. He continued, “Every single dollar that comes in, in tariff revenues that we take from the foreigners who have been cheating us are going to go right to the American public in terms of tax cuts and debt reduction.” Navarro added, “The reality here is that, institutionally, the international trade system is designed to cheat us.”

S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.



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