In a departure from protocol, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated potential Japanese military support for Taiwan should China hypothetically attack its eastern neighbor. Takaichi made these remarks last month in response to an opposition lawmaker who asked about “survival-threatening situations” which legally allow Japan to utilize its Self-Defense Forces. This break from the typical Japanese posture of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan triggered fierce words from China. In a since-deleted X post, China's Consul General shared a news article about Takaichi's November 7th remarks and commented, “The dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off.”

Tokyo called these comments “extremely inappropriate,” while reaffirming Japan’s commitment to the 1972 agreement that declares the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China and said it "understands and respects" Beijing's position on Taiwan. Nevertheless, the tension between both countries has only grown.

On November 14th, China posted a travel advisory to Japan, heavily impacting the tourism economy. An estimated 500,000 trips to Japan were canceled within days of the announcement, affecting Japanese restaurants, hotels, and other related industries. Popular Japanese artists’ tours have also been curtailed, with “One Piece” singer Maki Otsuki interrupted mid-performance in Shanghai. Despite the pressure, Takaichi has not retracted her remarks. Minoru Kihara, Japanese chief cabinet secretary, told reporters, “To the Chinese government, I have given explanations. Prime Minister [Takaichi’s] remarks do not change the past government’s stance on this issue. The stability and peace of Taiwan’s fate is quite important for Japan's security and the stability of the international community as a whole. Various issues surrounding Taiwan will be solved based on dialogues in a peaceful way.”

Both Tokyo and Beijing recognize Taiwan’s significance to the Indo-Pacific region. Its location and access to the Taiwan Strait keep China’s quest for dominance at bay by acting as a connecting thread between U.S.-Asia allies like the Philippines and Japan. Furthermore, Taiwan manufactures 70% of the world’s semiconductors and around 90% of the most advanced chips, which would have massive technological implications if the island were attacked.

Taiwan remains one of the freest Democratic countries in the world, with strong protections for religious liberty. About 4% of the population is Christian, and while there is much need for evangelism, Taiwanese Christians are free to worship without fear of government interference. According to Freedom House, a non-partisan organization tracking the state of freedom and democracy around the globe, Taiwan earned a global freedom score of 94 out of 100 in 2024. By comparison, China scored nine points. The Council on Foreign Relations puts it bluntly, “If China were to take Taiwan by force, Taiwan’s democracy would be extinguished, and its twenty-three million people would see their rights severely curtailed. As this would come in the wake of China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, the ramifications would be even greater.”

Beijing’s strong reaction to Takaichi underscores its desire to control the island. A takeover of Taiwan through military force or soft power would debilitate Japanese and U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region, cripple advances in technology, and douse the religious freedom of the Taiwanese people. Taiwan does not belong to China, and both China and Japan understand what it means if it did.

Reuters reporters John Geddie, Tim Kelly, and Mariko Katsumura contributed to this report.