In a new overview of the latest social science data, the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) is reporting that after many decades of increasing divorce, nonmarital childbearing, and children living in broken homes, current statistics show that the trends are either leveling off or reversing.

On Monday, IFS summarized the latest trends compiled from social science data and noted that, contrary to the steady decline in the institution of marriage and stable family life that has been occurring since the 1960s, “major shifts in family behavior are underway that indicate marriage is strengthening as the primary anchor of family life.”

IFS notes that the largest shift has become apparent with divorce. After reaching a peak in the late ’70s and early ’80s, “the divorce rate has been falling in recent decades,” currently hitting a 50-year low. Part of the change is due to how different cohorts of the U.S. population are becoming less likely to divorce, in some measure because “marriage has become more selective, with more educated, affluent, and religious couples becoming more likely to put a ring on it than the general population.”

IFS further observed that according to the most recent projections, the risk of first marriages ending in divorce is now around 40%, a significant drop from couples who married in the ’80s and ’90s, of whom 50% experienced divorce. “The bottom line: Most married couples will make it,” IFS pointed out.

Another factor contributing to more intact families is that the amount of children being born to unmarried women has leveled off. IFS reports that the trend, which had been rising every year since the ’60s, peaked in 2009 and has plateaued ever since, remaining at roughly 40% over the last 15 years. “This matters for family stability because children born out of wedlock are significantly more likely to see their parents break up than children born to married parents,” the Institute observed.

This positive trend is also becoming evident in populations where single parenthood was particularly high, including lower-income and black families. “Over the last decade, the divorce rate has fallen precipitously for less advantaged and black Americans,” IFS notes. “Largely as a consequence, the share of children in lower-income and black families with married parents has also ticked up.” The percentage of black children living with married parents rose from 33% in 2012 to 39% by 2024. Overall, the percentage of married parent families has gone up from 64% in 2012 to 66% today, after a steady year-over-year decline from 85% beginning in 1970.

Looking ahead, experts like Brad Wilcox, who serves as a senior fellow at IFS, predict that the upward trend in family stability will continue. “We anticipate that the stabilization of American family life will continue in the near future, driven partly by a dip in nonmarital childbearing and an even bigger decline in divorce,” he told The Washington Stand. “All this is partly a consequence of the fact that American family life is increasingly the preserve of the religious, conservatives, and more educated Americans.”

Wilcox, who also serves as Distinguished University Professor of Sociology at the University of Virginia, further argues that the church must play a defining role in making sure that the upswing in marital constancy and the resurgence of family life continues.

“One thing they can do is to work in partnership with some new organizations like Communio and National Marriage Week that have begun sponsoring a number of events and activities and classes and trainings to help both churches and couples and families thrive more in their marriages and also steer clear of difficulties and handle major problems in a marriage as well, or in a family more generally,” he told “Washington Watch” last year. “… But I think churches also have to be more intentional, too, about thinking through new ways to have young adults date, meet, [and] do volunteering together just to foster a social context where young adults can meet one another and move on to date and marry.”