Following months of high-profile bad press and with midterm elections only months away, rumors are surfacing that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are planning to renege on the promise of mass deportations. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) floated the potential Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shift during a Congressional Institute fireside chat this week, suggesting that aggressive immigration enforcement operations polled poorly with Hispanic voters, precipitating a change in policy.

“We’ve got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic and Latino voters, for certain, because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous,” Johnson said, in response to a reporter’s question. “But here’s the good news: we’re in a course correction mode right now.”

The speaker suggested that Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who is slated to take over as Homeland Security secretary at the end of the month, will likely readjust DHS policies pertaining to deportations. “I’m sure that he’ll be confirmed by the Senate. He’s a thoughtful guy. He’ll bring a thoughtful approach,” Johnson said. He also touted Border Czar Tom Homan’s more than four decades of law enforcement and immigration control experience, boasting that Homan had been “decorated by Democrat presidents for his acumen and expertise.”

The likely change in policy seems to have the blessing of the White House, too. In a social media post Tuesday, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative, Political, and Public Affairs James Blair focused the Trump administration’s deportation policy on “violent/criminal illegals that Joe Biden & the Democrats in Congress let in,” seemingly narrowing the scope of immigration enforcement. According to an Axios report, Blair also encouraged Republicans during a policy listening session at the GOP’s annual retreat in Doral, Florida, to drop “mass deportations” from their messaging and shift their focus exclusively to deporting violent offenders.

Citing DHS insiders, AF Post reported this week that Mullin is largely expected to “shelve” mass deportations upon taking over the department, focusing instead on deporting only violent offenders and those who have accumulated criminal records since entering the U.S. illegally. However, Homan is reportedly attempting to ingratiate himself with Mullin in an effort to keep the deportation train rolling. According to a Politico report, Homan frequently clashed with outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Homan wanted to focus on increasing deportation numbers, while Noem laid greater emphasis on “flashy” public relations campaigns. Noem reportedly cut Homan out of crucial decision-making processes surrounding arrests and deportations. Now, Homan is reaching out to Mullin to offer the senator guidance and critical contacts as he prepares to take over DHS, apparently in the hope of forging a friendship with Mullin and avoiding the personnel and messaging drama that characterized Noem’s tenure at DHS.

In comments to The Washington Stand, Jessica Vaughan, director of Policy Studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, said of the potential policy shift, “If it’s true, then such a ‘course correction’ involving abandonment of the deportation push would be a huge unforced political error, and a surrender to open-borders Democrats.” She recommended that the Trump administration and Republicans tout their “homeland security achievements,” instead of “running away from them.” The high-profile controversies centered on operations in Minneapolis, Vaughan suggested, were not the result of immigration enforcement and the mass deportation agenda, but the result of Noem’s personnel and strategy decisions. “Let’s hope that what Speaker Johnson was talking about when he spoke of a course correction was Trump’s move to replace Noem (and her cronies) with someone who can bring more professionalism to the job.”

“ICE has not been overzealous in its work, but some of the political appointees often seemed overzealous in how they described it,” Vaughan opined. “To me, ‘mass deportations’ has always been more of a slogan to represent efforts to mitigate the mass illegal migration brought on by Biden, and Trump must not take his foot off the gas pedal,” she added. “This is most definitely not the time for Markwayne Mullin to put ICE on a shelf. We need vigorous immigration enforcement more than ever, with international threats at a very high level, and following the worst period of illegal immigration in our history.”

Lora Ries, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, agreed. “President Trump ran on mass deportations. It was the second plank in the 2024 platform. Americans voted for it. He won and Republicans need to act like it,” she emphasized. “Don’t play defense as Republicans have always done in the past. That will keep people home in November,” Ries warned. “If Republicans go on offense on mass deportations, Americans will be encouraged to vote.”

Ries also noted that focusing enforcement efforts on only violent offenders fails to address many of the problems caused by mass illegal immigration. “‘Worst of the worst’ gets you hundreds of thousands of deportable aliens. But we have at least 20 million deportable aliens here,” she observed. “So, the administration needs to use worksite enforcement, AI tools to detect immigration application fraud, and other tools to increase deportations. That will change the risk calculus for other deportable aliens, which will result in more self-deportations.”

Despite Johnson’s references to polling data, deportations remain broadly popular amongst the American public. An October Harvard/Harris poll found that 56% of voters support “deporting all illegal aliens.” (Emphasis added.) Those numbers largely align with last month’s Harvard-Harris poll findings: 75% of voters back the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants who are violent offenders, while nearly 60% back “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally.” (Emphasis added.) The February survey was conducted in the wake of controversial Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Minneapolis, which have largely been cited as evidence of the Trump administration’s aggressive approach to immigration enforcement.

Another recent poll, conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, found that while two-thirds (66%) of likely midterm voters support the arrest and deportation of violent offenders, nearly 60% still support the mass deportation of all illegal immigrants, not just violent offenders. Notably, 87% of voters who backed Trump in 2024 — including 79% of Hispanic voters — expressed their support for a large-scale mass deportation campaign. Furthermore, increasing deportations, the survey found, will encourage voters to back Republican candidates in the midterms and will likely increase voter turnout. “Clearly, this accomplishment would energize Trump’s base to come out and vote Republican,” the polling firm wrote. A Cygnal survey from late January also found that 61% of voters support mass deportations, 73% consider entering the U.S. illegally to be a criminal act, and 54% support the conduct of ICE in arresting and deporting illegal immigrants.

In line with McLaughlin and Associates, Vaughan warned that walking back the promise of mass deportations may prove fatal for Republicans in both the midterm and potentially even 2028 elections. “Voters are expecting to see continued enforcement, whether against criminals, illegal workers, people who commit immigration fraud, or immigrants who are hostile to our country and our values,” she observed. “If Republican leaders and representatives go soft on immigration enforcement, they will find themselves in the minority again in Congress, because voters will stay home, with no one to support who has their interests in mind.”