The Lebanese cabinet on Thursday approved the principles of an American proposal to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year, which the Iran-backed jihadist group vowed to resist. Disarming Hezbollah would allow Israel to withdraw troops that remain in southern Lebanon, thus restoring sovereignty and peace to the tottering government grown tired of war.

The Proposal

The U.S. proposal would involve “the gradual end of the presence of non-state armed groups in the country, including Hezbollah, both north and south of the Litani River,” announced Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos, although the details have yet to be fleshed out.

This language conjures memories of the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), in which multiple “non-state armed groups” clashed for supremacy and survival. After the war ended, Hezbollah was the only non-state group that refused to surrender its weapons. Nevertheless, it has been allowed to participate in the national government ever since. From this position — as both a faction within the government and an armed militia loyal to Iran — Hezbollah sabotaged Lebanon for decades, especially obstructing any efforts aimed at its own disarmament.

Those conditions changed in 2024, when Israel pummeled Hezbollah in a breathtaking campaign. What began with a mass explosion of Hezbollah-held pagers and radios concluded with an Israeli ground offensive that dismantled most of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal and removed most of its forward positions. In November 2024, with Hezbollah leaderless and prostrate, Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon to turn its attention to other pressing adversaries, such as Hamas in Gaza and Iran itself.

But Israel’s crushing victory of Hezbollah in 2024 has not brought the expected respite to Lebanese bystanders, for the simple reason that the terror group continues to rebuild. Since Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024, Israel has carried out more than 500 airstrikes in Lebanese territory, killing at least 230 Hezbollah operatives and destroying dozens of sites.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel may act against any Hezbollah activities that pose an immediate threat to its own security, but its regular strikes against targets in Lebanon inevitably create friction with its northern neighbor.

The U.S. proposal, pitched by U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack and Deputy Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus, position this friction as a catalyzing motivation. “The urgency of this proposal is underscored by the increasing number of complaints regarding Israeli violations of the current ceasefire, including airstrikes and cross-border operations, which risk triggering a collapse of the fragile status quo,” it states.

Thus, the plum prize for Lebanon if it successfully stamps out armed resistance from Hezbollah is territory free from Israeli intervention. The principles to which the Lebanese cabinet agreed include “ensuring Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the cessation of all hostilities, including ground, aerial and maritime violations,” said Morcos.

The Plan

Of course, it’s one thing for the Lebanese cabinet to agree in principle to Hezbollah’s disarmament. It’s quite another for the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah. What would such a project entail? The U.S. proposal sketches out four phases.

In Phase One, Lebanon will issue a decree (within 15 days) committing to disarm Hezbollah by December 31, and Israel will pause its operations against Hezbollah targets.

In Phase Two, Lebanon will begin (within 60 days) to implement a disarmament plan. The government will approve “a detailed [Lebanese army] deployment plan to support the plan to bring all arms under the authority of the state.” For its part, Israel will begin to withdraw from five positions it holds in southern Lebanon and to release Lebanese prisoners it holds. In meetings in Israel on Sunday, the American envoys lobbied Israel to withdraw from these positions if the Lebanese army really did disarm Hezbollah.

In Phase Three, Israel would withdraw (within 90 days) from all Lebanese positions, and Lebanon would begin to receive international funding to reconstruct buildings and towns destroyed during the war, which resulted in an estimated $11.1 billion in damage. Both the U.S. and Persian Gulf states have made it clear they will not financially assist in rebuilding Lebanon until the government disarms Hezbollah.

In Phase Four, Lebanon would dismantle (within 120 days) Hezbollah’s remaining heavy weapons, such as missiles and drones. Friendly states would organize a conference on how to rebuild the Lebanese economy and “implement President Trump’s vision for the return of Lebanon as a prosperous and viable country.”

The Potential for Success

Hezbollah, of course, objects to disarming itself. For 35 years, it has enjoyed a position of unique power and control within Lebanon, making it a uniquely effective proxy for Iran. Losing its weapons — especially the missiles it aims at Israel, would reduce it to a mere political faction.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah declared that it would consider any mandate to disarm as a “grave sin,” and that it would treat any such mandate “as if it did not exist.” The group added that the U.S. proposal “undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty and gives Israel a free hand to tamper with its security, geography, politics and future existence.”

Of course, these claims are exactly contrary to fact. The greatest threat to Lebanese sovereignty is Hezbollah’s status as an armed, non-state organization, which threatens the state’s monopoly on legitimate force. The reason why Israel has so tampered with Lebanon’s security and geography is that Hezbollah has committed acts of war against Israel from within Lebanese territory, in defiance of the Beirut government.

When the Lebanese cabinet followed through with the vote on Thursday, Hezbollah members of the cabinet and its Shi’ite allies walked out in protest. (The facts that Hezbollah even holds seats in the cabinet, and that it feels empowered to simply walk out if its interests are disrespected, illustrate the deep dysfunction of the Beirut regime.)

But the Lebanese cabinet voted to disarm Hezbollah with full knowledge that the group would resist. This suggests that the rest of the Lebanese government is prepared to follow through and at least give disarming Hezbollah the old college try. When asked how the Beirut government would disarm a resistant Hezbollah, Morcos said the Lebanese Army would submit a plan by the end of August.

Perhaps Lebanon’s greatest asset in disarming Hezbollah is Israeli cooperation. If nothing else, Israel has already dramatically weakened Hezbollah over the past 18 months. Additionally, “Israel stands ready to support Lebanon in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Monday. Among other things, if the Lebanese Armed Forces “take the necessary steps to implement the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will engage in reciprocal measures, including a phased reduction of IDF presence.”

For Lebanon, the benefits of disarming Hezbollah include a withdrawal of Israeli forces, an end to Israeli airstrikes, and the prospect of international aid to rebuild their country. For Israel, the benefits of disarming Hezbollah include securing their northern frontier against terrorist attacks and freeing up more soldiers for their occupation of Gaza City, where they are desperately short of manpower. The benefits may be clear, but the question is whether, after Israel softened up Hezbollah, the Lebanese army is capable of finishing the job.