Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement that would allow Israel to wind down the war on its northern front, President Joe Biden announced Tuesday. The Israeli war cabinet voted Tuesday to approve the agreement, which had Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s endorsement. “We think we have a deal,” an anonymous U.S. official told Axios. “We are on the goal line, but we haven’t passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday and something can always go wrong until then.”

“Just a few weeks ago, we met with Benjamin Netanyahu. There was no talk of a ceasefire deal then,” said Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.), who recently traveled to Israel, on “Washington Watch” Monday. “I wouldn’t say that I’m completely surprised,” Rep. John Rutherford (R-Fla.) responded, who was part of the same trip. “The prime minister and his defense minister, they were trying to work on and discover a way to get to a ceasefire settlement. I’m glad to see this development. I’m glad to see that America is playing a role.”

Israel was unwilling to consider a ceasefire with Hezbollah until they had driven the terrorist group north of the 2006 Armistice line so that Israeli civilians could live without constant fear of rocket barrages. In 2006, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 required Hezbollah to disarm and relocate north of the Litani River, 18 miles from the Israeli border. “Hezbollah terrorists … had got in there and … fired upon the people in the Golan Heights,” said Alford. “In fact, some 60-70,000 Israelis are now displaced out of their homes.” Recently, Israeli ground troops finally reached the Litani River, thus pushing Hezbollah out of territory the group was not supposed to occupy in the first place.

“When we spoke with [former Israeli] Defense Minister [Yoav] Gallant in Israel, he mentioned then that they were going to need this buffer zone with … their northern border,” Rutherford recalled, “to be sure that they pulled back far enough that they could create a buffer zone there to protect Israeli and, quite frankly, Lebanese citizens in those areas.”

Under the roughly-sketched terms of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire, Israeli forces will reportedly withdraw from southern Lebanon and be replaced by the regular Lebanese army. Lebanese civilians could return to their homes in the south, but Hezbollah militants would not be allowed beyond the Litani River again. Additionally, Lebanon has reportedly committed to overseeing all arms purchases and production in the country so that they don’t fall into the hands of Hezbollah.

Even as negotiations proceeded, Israel and Hezbollah continued fighting. Israel hit terrorist targets in central Beirut, and Hezbollah responded with yet another missile barrage against Israel. One factor motivating Netanyahu to consider a ceasefire are the pleas of the tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who are desperate to return to their homes — or what is left of them — after more than a year.

However, Netanyahu has never been one to lie down when terrorists shoot at his country. One sticking point in the negotiations was Israel’s demand that they retain total freedom of action in case Hezbollah violates the agreement, as Hezbollah violated the previous ceasefire agreement in 2006. Naturally, Lebanon and Hezbollah objected to this condition.

However, Axios reports that, in a side agreement to the deal, “The U.S. has agreed to give Israel a letter of assurances that includes support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, and for action to disrupt things like the reestablishment of a Hezbollah military presence near the border or the smuggling of heavy weapons.” This was apparently enough assurance for Israel to move forward with at least the first stage of the ceasefire.

The proposed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire would reportedly begin with a 60-day wind-down period, which would last until just after President-elect Donald Trump is sworn into office.

A ceasefire with Hezbollah would not be the end of Israel’s latest war. “They also have the threat still from Hamas,” noted Alford. “And they have the threat from Iran, which is funding these terrorists.”

However, a ceasefire with Hezbollah will reshape the nature of that conflict. Hezbollah was Iran’s strongest terrorist proxy. Iran launched a full-scale missile barrage from its own territory to protect Hezbollah when Israel’s ground invasion into Lebanon was first launched. If Israel succeeds in knocking Hezbollah out of the war, it could free them up to focus on their remaining enemies.

The other factor that will reshape the nature of Israel’s conflict with Iran is the incoming Trump administration. “I think you’re going to see a much more structured response from America to Iran. I think we’re going to see President Trump really make a hard stand for Israel in that area,” Rutherford declared. After all, he reminded viewers, “after several presidents having said that they would move the embassy to Jerusalem, President Trump actually did it.”

Alford added that Trump has already selected “a great new ambassador” to Israel, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a staunch friend of Israel.

A reshaped American policy toward the Iran-Israel conflict will benefit from the attitudes of other Middle Eastern nations, who all desire peace. Rutherford related how the Congressional delegation was also able to meet with leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. “It sounded like there were real cries for peace in the region,” he said. “President Trump is going to come in and be that focal point that will help all of those countries come together.”

In particular, he noted that Egypt is desperate to end the fighting, if only to end the Houthis’ piracy, which has caused Egypt to lose about 60% of the revenue they normally generate from ships passing through the Suez Canal. “They just want to return to normalcy so they can have normal relations with Israel, so they can conduct business,” Alford agreed.

Of course, the Biden administration has issued overly optimistic predictions of reaching a ceasefire before, so what made this time different? For one thing, Israel has essentially accomplished what it set out to do, drive Hezbollah north of the Litani River. For another, it seems like Hezbollah may actually be interested in striking a deal. Previously, Hezbollah conditioned any ceasefire agreement upon an end to the war in Gaza, but Lebanon officials now say that Hezbollah supports the most recent deal.

What changed Hezbollah’s mind? One possible reason is that Israel has systematically wiped out Hezbollah’s leadership. New people are now leading Hezbollah. They could have different opinions than their predecessors, or at least less desire to die in an airstrike for a lost cause.

Surprisingly, the largest obstacle to America’s ceasefire proposal came from France. The ceasefire deal includes an international body that will monitor the deal’s implementation. Lebanon wanted France to be a member of the oversight committee, but Netanyahu was outraged when the French Foreign Ministry announced it would implement the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant against him.

“Israel is in the middle of a conflict, an armed conflict, a war fighting for their very survival. And the idea that they were going to arrest the prime minister of that nation, our close ally, in the midst of this conflict, is just really an incredible proposition,” declared House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on “This Week on the Hill.” “The International Criminal Court, has no jurisdiction over Israel or the United States, but they are acting in violation of our sovereignty and in violation of the principles of due process. And it is a very dangerous situation.”

“The United States needs to stand firmly again against this. We need President Biden and Chuck Schumer in the Senate to stand up right now and declare that this arrest warrant cannot be acted upon,” Johnson continued. “The president needs to get out on his international platform and say, ‘Enough is enough,’ and ‘We will not stand for this.’”

Johnson, however, doubted Biden’s ability to do this. “President Trump will be a strong hand in the White House again, and we desperately need that,” he said. “We need our allies to respect us and our enemies to fear us. And the problem we have right now is that none of those things are true, because Joe Biden has had such a weak hand on the world stage.”

At least it appears that the Biden administration has papered over the immediate diplomatic rift. In a Friday phone call, Biden told Macron “that it was not possible to mediate a deal while also pledging to arrest the head of state of one of the parties,” an anonymous official told Axios. Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein told Israel there would be no deal without France and somehow got Israel to drop their objection.

When making a deal with terrorists, nothing is over until it’s confirmed to be over. But, if this ceasefire restores peace to Lebanon and northern Israel, Alford concluded, “that would certainly be something to be thankful for at Thanksgiving.”