More than five million jobs will be lost if the federal minimum wage is raised to $25 per hour as proposed by multiple candidates linked to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and Democrats in Congress, according to a deep-dive economic data analysis by the Employment Policies Institute (EmPI).

“The majority of research over three decades finds minimum wage increases reduce employment. A new model developed by [EmPI] — based on methods developed by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other American labor economists — compiles the latest economic data to estimate what this means for workers under the latest proposed minimum wage hike. Using these established methods and the latest Census Bureau data on workers across the country, EmPI estimates the federal $25 proposal will cost 5.01 million jobs nationally, significantly impacting the hospitality sector, tipped restaurant workers, and teens,” the study reported.

The EmPI is an Arlington, Virginia.-based nonprofit research group that “in particular focuses on issues that affect entry-level employment” from the perspective of classical capitalistic economic theory. The Arlington-based EmPI should not be confused with the Washington, D.C.-based Economic Policy Institute, (EPI), a nonprofit advocacy group that views economic issues from a leftist or progressive perspective.

The EmPI analysis broke out the projected lost jobs on a state-by-state basis and found that Texas would be the biggest loser, with nearly 832,000 positions disappearing. Pennsylvania would be the second biggest loser at more than 295,000, followed by Georgia (253,708), North Carolina (250,000) and Florida (234,730). The next five biggest losers include Ohio (213,802), Indiana (182,152), Tennessee (159,873). California (142,582) and South Carolina (135,739). Collectively, 12 Southern states would lose more than 2.5 million jobs, compared to the other 38 states.

By far, the industry taking the biggest hit under a $25 per hour minimum wage would be the restaurant/bar business with more than 1.7 million jobs going away. By comparison, the grocery industry, which would have the second biggest negative impact, is projected in the EmPI analysis to lose 205,000 positions.

By age groups, teenagers and young adults, 16-24 years of age, would suffer the loss of 2.65 million, while women would suffer three million losses, compared to two million for men. By far the biggest loser, however, would be the nearly 3.8 million men and women working in positions that do not include income from tips.

The major legislative proposals currently in Congress seeking what would be the largest single increase in minimum wage include the House’s Living Wage for All (LWFA) Act sponsored by Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.). Each of the 31 House co-sponsors of the proposal are Democrats. Notably absent from the co-sponsors is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

On the Senate side, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut is the prime mover behind the upper chamber’s companion bill to the House proposal, which is titled the Skilled Workforce for America Act. It is co-sponsored by Murphy’s Connecticut Senate colleague, Richard Blumenthal, as well as Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Andy Kim of New Jersey.

Under the House and Senate versions of the bill, businesses with 500 or more employees would be required to pay the $25 minimum wage by January 1, 2031, while smaller firms would have until 2038 to reach the required hourly amount.

The DSA has pushed for the $25 minimum wage since adopting the proposal among resolutions agreed to by delegates to the organization’s 2021 national convention, declaring, “Democratic Socialists of America support an increase of the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour with future increases tied to worker productivity.” Unlike the current congressional proposals, the DSA approach does not distinguish between employer size in scheduling the hike to $25 per hour.

Three of the 32 House members co-sponsoring the hike proposal have extensive DSA links. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), for example, is an active DSA member, while Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) joined the organization prior to being elected to Congress while serving on the Austin City Council. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) has run for public office with DSA endorsement since 2018.

Proposals to increase the minimum wage have often prompted heated debate in Congress, in corporate and labor union boardrooms, and among academic economists. The EmPI cited a May 2026 study by CORCOM, Inc. that observed:

“Twenty-six percent of economists support raising the minimum federal wage up to $15/hour (strongly, 12%; somewhat, 14%), and 74% oppose it (somewhat, 14%; strongly, 59%). Overall, there is less support for raising the minimum wage up to $20/hour, with 10% supporting it (3% strongly; somewhat, 7%), but 90% opposing it (somewhat, 13%; strongly, 77%). There is virtually no support for raising the rate to more than $20/hour, with 5% supporting it (strongly, 0%; somewhat, 5%) and 96% opposing it (somewhat, 7%; strongly, 89%).”

There have been a limited number of studies that reached dramatically different conclusions about the impact of increasing the minimum wage. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), for example, a 1994 study of the impact on the restaurant industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania found a 13% employment increase following the former state’s boosting the minimum wage, while employment in the latter state remained steady.

The authors of the 1994 study issued a revised version a year later that reached the opposite conclusion — that jobs were lost, not gained, in New Jersey. The first analysis was based on surveys of 410 restaurants in the two states, while the second looked at actual payroll records from 230 establishments. Yet a third edition of the study appeared in 1998, and it reaffirmed the original findings using enhanced data analytics.