A new study is confirming something many of us already knew: the surge in transgender, non-binary, and queer identities among young Americans? It was nothing more than a fleeting cultural phenomenon, a trend that is rapidly losing its allure.

Professor Erik Kaufmann of the University of Buckingham in England revealed this through his own study, which he titled, “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans.” The study pulls data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) annual undergraduate campus surveys, which sample over 55,000-69,000 students each year, as well as from a Higher Education Research Institute survey of incoming college freshmen, and other sources. In general, the study found a relatively flat rate among those who identify as lesbian or gay — the “L” and “G” in the alphabet soup. But when it comes to the “B” (bisexual), “T” (transgender), and “Q” (queer), the numbers speak volumes.

The professor wrote that the “share of young people not identifying as male or female (typically ticking the non-binary or questioning options) has declined substantially since its 2022-23 peak across 3 of 5 data sources.” As the New York Post summarized, “Some of the studies show a drop from 9% to 3% while others have the figure dropping from 6.8% to 3.6%.” Kaufmann also noted how the “share of students identifying as not heterosexual” dropped by roughly 10 points. Some of his other key findings were as follows:

• “After surging in the 2010s and 20s, trans and queer identities are in decline among young Americans.”
• “The transgender share among university students peaked in 2023 and has almost halved since, from nearly 7 percent to under 4 percent.”
• “Today’s freshmen are less BTQ+ than seniors, suggesting that decline will continue.”

Kaufmann, being left leaning himself, didn’t mince words: “Trans, queer and bisexual identities are in rapid decline among young educated Americans.” He, however, did not believe the decline was the “result of a shift to the right, the return of religion or a rejection of woke culture war attitudes.” Rather, he notes how “improving mental health … appears to be part of the explanation for the decline of BTQ+ identification.” Regardless, he concluded, “Only time will tell if the substantial decline of BTQ+ identification will continue among young Americans.”

The analysis of Albert Mohler, president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, is insightful and thought-provoking. “So,” he said, “you look at the number of young people,” and “the drop in those identifying as trans is remarkable. It’s about a 50% drop in just a matter of a few years” — a trend Kaufmann said is most notable in “Elite institutions.” As Mohler put it, “something’s going on in the culture.”

In the last several years, he added, there’s been a prominent “deviation from sexual norms and gender norms” — largely “driven by peer pressure.” In one sense, it can be described as a contagion. “I don’t mean physical as in germs,” Mohler clarified, but “as a social contagion. It is an idea. It is a conception. It is an identity that all of a sudden becomes contagious.”

But a question remains. As Mohler asked, do the findings signal “a return to moral sanity?” One could hope so. And yet, Kaufmann himself stated how the study points to “a sign that fashions are changing.” Mohler was quick to note the significance of Kaufmann using the word “fashion.” It points to a much bigger idea: “Fashions are changing,” Mohler emphasized, and they change all the time. So, what is Kaufmann admitting? Well, the professor is saying the quiet part out loud.

People want what’s popular, and if “you want to be popular in a peer group,” Mohler said, “well, adopt an LGBTQ identity. And then, all of a sudden, you’re a protected class. … [Y]ou’re famous.” But the thing about fashion is that it comes and goes like the tides. “Just think of fashion in terms of the most classic expression,” Mohler said, “meaning how we dress. Dress patterns change. You can look at a sitcom from the 1990s, and no man wears a baggy suit like that anymore. That’s what everybody was wearing in 1992. Virtually, no one’s wearing it now.” The same is true of hair, jewelry, makeup, or shoes. “Fashion is fashion,” Mohler noted. “And by definition, fashion is expressive of a contemporary moment. It doesn’t last.”

This is where Scripture anchors our understanding. God’s word declares His design for humanity with unmistakable clarity: “So God created man in his own image, in the image of God he created him; male and female he created them” (Genesis 1:27). This binary of male and female is not a cultural construct but a divine ordinance, rooted in the very nature of God’s creation. As Psalm 139:13-14 affirms, “For you formed my inward parts; you knitted me together in my mother’s womb. I praise you, for I am fearfully and wonderfully made.” God’s design for each person is intentional, perfect, and unchanging.

The rise and fall of BTQ+ identities, as Mohler notes, “can’t be explained by … biology.” It’s not about medical anomalies or genetic shifts but about a cultural wave — a choice to embrace a fictional label for the sake of social approval. And when the “cool” factor fades, so does the appeal. Yet, Scripture reminds us that God is not swayed by human fads.

As Hebrews 13:8 states, “Jesus Christ is the same yesterday and today and forever.” The enemy may use cultural trends to sow confusion, but God’s truth remains steadfast. As 1 Corinthians 14:33 declares, “God is not a God of confusion but of peace.” The transgender and queer movement, at its core, rebels against God’s good design, promoting a lie that distorts the beauty of His creation. As Jesus warned, “The thief comes only to steal and kill and destroy” (John 10:10), and this trend has led many astray, promising freedom but delivering ruin.

Mohler posed the pressing question, “Is this a permanent trend?” Certainly no one could say for sure. As with all trends, Mohler noted, “it could come in fashion and then go out of fashion.” But that’s where Christians enter the scene. We have a sacred calling in this moment. We must seize the opportunity to proclaim the truth with love and boldness. Ephesians 4:15 urges us to speak “the truth in love,” pointing others to the freedom found in embracing God’s design.

The fading of this trend is not a victory to gloat over but a chance to extend grace to those caught in confusion, inviting them to the truth of the gospel. Romans 12:2 exhorts, “Do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewal of your mind, that by testing you may discern what is the will of God, what is good and acceptable and perfect.”

So, what will we do? As the cultural tide shifts, Christians must stand as beacons of truth, proclaiming that God’s design for male and female is not a fashion item to be tried on or discarded. It is an unchangeable reality of human existence, rooted in the eternal purposes of a loving Creator. Let us pray for those swayed by fleeting fashions, speak with compassion, and point to the One who offers true, eternal identity and freedom. The moment is now — will we rise to meet it?