Almost exactly a year ago, Rasmussen Reports polled Americans and discovered a record number of those who believed the country was on the “right track” — the highest in nearly two decades. Today? American optimism has once again plummeted — all the way down to a record low — with recent polls from both Rasmussen and Gallup shedding light on this reality.

As of early February 2026, only 36% of likely U.S. voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to Rasmussen’s recent tracking, with similar figures hovering in the mid-to-low 30s to low 40s in recent weeks. This sharp decline reflects growing frustrations amid economic headwinds, policy implementation challenges, and political realities, even as some initial post-inauguration gains have faded. Additional Rasmussen polling shows 56% of voters saying life isn’t better under President Donald Trump’s second term, and only 27% believing the nation is in the “Golden Age” Trump promised.

Yet unlike Rasmussen’s poll that garnered opinions related to the country’s trajectory, Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index dug deeper into the personal lives of Americans. The survey considered a total of 22,125 interviews with U.S. adults — all part of the Gallup Panel designed to encompass most, if not all, 50 states plus Washington, D.C. — landing on a cloudy consensus: Americans are feeling more pessimistic about the future than at any point in nearly two decades.

According to Gallup’s survey, just 59.2% of U.S. adults now expect to be living a high-quality life five years from now — the lowest level since Gallup began tracking this measure almost 20 years ago. That’s down sharply from recent years: a drop of 3.5 points just since 2024, and a total slide of more than 9 points (9.1 percentage points) since 2020. Gallup estimates that there are roughly 24.5 million fewer optimistic Americans compared to six years ago. The decline has been particularly stark among certain groups, with Hispanic adults experiencing one of the greatest drops in optimism over the past year.

Adding to the gloom, the share of Americans classified as “thriving” — rating both their current and future lives highly — fell to just 48% in late 2025, which was one of the lowest readings since tracking began in 2008. The only measurements that were lower were during either the Great Recession (October, November, and December 2008) or the early stages of the pandemic (in the first and the last half of April 2020), Gallup noted. This “thriving” metric has sunk over 11 points from its June 2021 high of 59.2%, with future life expectations driving much of the erosion rather than current satisfaction alone.

So, what’s to blame? The short answer: economics and politics.

Analysts point to lingering effects from high inflation in the early 2020s as a major factor in the longer-term slide, with political shifts also appearing to play a role in the latest numbers. Gallup specifically noted how the political landscape inevitably affects the outcomes of such surveys. For instance, when Rasmussen polled in 2025, they found a strong correlation between Americans’ heightened optimism and President Donald Trump’s second inauguration — as well as the flurry of actions that followed shortly after. Meanwhile, Gallup noticed a downward trend for both Democrats (down 7.6 points in future life ratings) and Independents (down 1.5 points) that also correlated with Trump’s return to the White House. Even Republicans saw slight dips in some metrics, though they remain more optimistic overall.

Dan Witters, research director for Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, emphasized that “while current life is eroding, it’s that optimism for the future that has eroded almost twice as much over the course of about that last 10 years or so.”

This divergence between Rasmussen’s national “right track” sentiment and Gallup’s personal well-being metrics highlights a noteworthy split in the American psyche. National optimism often surges with political victories or policy shifts — like the post-inauguration bump in 2025 — reflecting collective hope tied to leadership and direction. In contrast, personal optimism, as captured by Gallup, is more grounded in individual realities: job security, cost of living, health care access, and family well-being. Even as some voters cheered Trump’s return, persistent economic pressures — from inflation scars to rising costs in housing and groceries — have weighed heavily on personal outlooks. This gap suggests that while many may approve of the country’s broader path under certain administrations, their own lives feel increasingly precarious.

Historically, these kinds of inconsistencies prove common. Yet the current mismatch is stark: Rasmussen’s national optimism peaked at unprecedented levels in early 2025, only to fall back to the mid-30s by early 2026, while Gallup’s optimism decline has been steadier and more persistent. To address these patterns, Family Research Council’s Dr. David Closson offered a worldview analysis in comments to The Washington Stand.

“These polling trends are sobering,” he said. Yet from a biblical perspective, “they’re not entirely surprising.”

Closson explained how these fluctuating trends, which dramatically change from year to year, put a spotlight on a pressing question: where are Americans placing their hope? According to Closson, “Scripture consistently warns us against placing ultimate hope in political leaders.” And while “human government is a real institution established by God for justice and order, it is still limited, temporary, and populated by fallen human beings.” Americans connecting “their sense of hope to political outcomes rather than transcendent realities” is what leads to this roller-coaster of sentiment, which poll after poll reveals.

Yet narrowing into “the more persistent erosion in personal optimism is particularly revealing,” Closson said. Especially because, “even when economic conditions improve or political power shifts, deeper anxieties remain.” This “reflects a fundamental truth: material prosperity and favorable policy outcomes cannot ultimately satisfy the deep human longing for security, meaning, and permanence.” In the end, “humans were made for something more durable than shifting markets or administrations. That doesn’t mean that politics is irrelevant. Yet Scripture teaches that politics is penultimate — not ultimate.”

When polls point to “dramatic swings in national optimism,” Cosson added, what they’re really showcasing is “that many Americans still look to Washington, D.C. to provide a kind of redemption that it cannot provide.” A “decline in personal hope also points to a deeper spiritual exhaustion.” As Closson concluded, “lasting hope is anchored not in who occupies the White House or the state house, but in the unchanging character of God” — “in the resurrection of Jesus Christ and the promise of the Kingdom that cannot be shaken.” So, as countless Americans try to grapple with an ever-changing cultural landscape, “a biblical worldview would affirm the importance of responsible civic engagement while reminding believers that their ultimate hope rests in God alone, not in earthly rulers or changing political circumstances.”