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Socialist Lula to Lead Brazil for a Fourth Time Thanks to a ‘Judicial Dictatorship,’ Critics Claim

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October 26, 2026
Commentary

Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva was declared the winner this Sunday in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, securing 51.76% of the vote against 48.24% for conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

What some media outlets have described as an “unprecedented comeback in the country’s democratic history” has been overshadowed by allegations of fraud. In this context, judicial support appears to have been a key factor.

Bolsonaro criticized a decision to extend voting hours by two hours — a move that benefited regions with a high concentration of left-wing voters, such as Bahia, even as polls had already closed in many other parts of the country.

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin extended the voting hours in Brazil, despite the fact that, under Brazilian electoral law, the authority to organize and administer elections lies with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), and the law does not provide for a general extension of voting hours through such a decision.

Zanin — who previously served as Lula’s personal lawyer and was appointed to the court by him — issued an order to keep polling stations open until 7:00 p.m., even though some polls had already closed. This followed reports of a reduced number of buses in public transit networks within “Lulista” strongholds — such as the cities of Salvador and Belém, as well as the highly contested city of São Paulo.

In contrast, the Bolsonaro campaign had requested an extension due to heavy rains affecting parts of the country; however, that request was denied.

Libertarian political scientist Agustín Laje, a central figure in Latin America’s so-called “culture war,” has characterized this coordination between the “Lulista” movement and Justice Zanin as part of a “judicial dictatorship” plaguing the country — a system centered around the notorious Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

The most prominent political prisoner in the country today is former President Jair Bolsonaro, who has been sentenced to more than 27 years in prison for an alleged coup attempt — charges based on assumptions and political rhetoric, and brought before judges whose legitimacy is questionable due to conflicts of interest with the Lula administration.

“The coup d’état has already taken place; it was carried out by the Supreme Federal Court (STF),” Laje remarked in response to a follower during a live stream this Sunday.

Bolsonaro won the first round in early October with 47% of the vote — nearly two percentage points ahead of Lula — and entered the runoff as the favorite, bolstered by the support of other candidates who had collectively garnered more than 5% of the vote.

Sunday’s outcome sets a “record”: for the first time since 1988, a presidential candidate in Brazil has been defeated after entering the runoff with more votes than his opponent.

Some attribute this last-minute surge to the way Lula, toward the end of the first round, scrambled to win over new voters by employing populist economic measures that relied on public funds.

For instance, he expanded a debt-relief program for families, introduced fuel subsidies, and increased — as well as accelerated — payments under Bolsa Família, a state-run welfare program for the most impoverished segments of the population.

Beyond the state dependency typically favored by the Left, Lula has also drawn inspiration from early Marxist texts — such as The Right to Be Lazy by the French-Spanish agitator Paul Lafargue — by pushing for a reduction in the workweek within the Senate.

Yet, even left-leaning outlets like the BBC have noted that, “amidst a growing fiscal deterioration and rising public debt in Brazil, these measures were viewed as a concerning, purely electioneering ploy.”

As of Sunday, all of the West’s enemies are celebrating. The Left is putting out headlines such as “Lula’s victory halts the Right and undermines Trump’s aspirations in Latin America.” The Kremlin chimed in, noting that “[Lula] does a great deal, and not just for the sake of developing bilateral relations.”

The only positive development during this election month in Brazil has been the consolidation of the Right as the majority force in the Senate looking ahead to 2027, holding 49 out of 81 seats.

Against this backdrop, the resurgence of the Bolsonaro clan has been striking. Michelle, Flávio’s mother, received over 398,500 votes in her bid for a Senate seat in the Federal District, making her the candidate with the highest number of votes. Her brother, Carlos, also triumphed, securing 25.35% of the vote in Santa Catarina. In that same state, young Jair Renan won a resounding victory for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, while his paternal uncle, Renato, also secured a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, representing the city of São Paulo.

Although they would need to secure additional allies, a legislative majority could facilitate the removal of a STF judge with 54 votes, the approval of a constitutional amendment, or the blocking of initiatives from the Lulista camp — while also exerting pressure regarding the budget and the appointment of officials. In short, these are the necessary checks to contain the old communist who will lead Brazil until 2030.

Yoe Suarez
Yoe Suárez is The Washington Stand's international affairs correspondent. He is an exiled journalist, writer, and producer who investigated in Havana about torture, political police, gangs, government black lists, and cybersurveillance. A graduate of Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, he was a CBN correspondent, and has written for outlets like The Hill and Newsweek. He has appeared on Vox, Univision, and Deutsche Welle as an analyst on Cuba, security, and U.S. foreign policy.


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