The intermittent war with the Islamic regime of Iran drags on as midterms approach. Thus far, repeated rounds of diplomacy have yielded no breakthrough, as Iran refuses to give up its dream of building nuclear weapons to obliterate Israel. On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ejected Iranian diplomats from the States (they came for the U.N. and stayed for unfruitful negotiations), a move that says everything about the current diplomatic progress.

The Trump administration first opened fire on February 28 and rapidly pummeled Iran’s entire military into a smoking crater. But battlefield defeat has not forced the Iranian ideologues to agree to America’s redlines. Instead, Iran has chosen to make the war as painful as possible for everyone, attacking neighboring countries who were not part of the conflict, as well as commercial vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant international waterway.

The result has been elevated gas prices for most of 2026, which has proven to be a significant irritant to American voters still smarting from Bidenflation. Indeed, the Iranians seem almost to revel in this economic pain, hoping to force President Trump to withdraw from the war merely through making it unpopular at home.

But, while little has developed on the Iran front, events across the rest of the Middle East are progressing rapidly. On Wednesday, U.S. Central Command announced that American forces had completely withdrawn from Iraq. American forces previously withdrew from Iraq in 2011 but were forced to return in 2014 due to the rise of ISIS. Combined with the rushed withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, this marks the first time since 2003 when American forces have been in neither country.

The U.S. military does retain a small footprint in Jordan, where it cooperates with the new Syrian regime in a continued “counter-ISIS mission.” Given the history of the region and the ongoing propensity to spawn radical Islamist caliphates, America’s withdrawal renders the new Syrian regime all the more important. But that relationship is complicated because the new Syrian regime is primarily run by former Islamist terrorists with close ties to Turkey, and even al-Qaeda, and questions linger over how the new regime will treat religious minorities such as Christians, Druze, and Alawites.

“With President [Ahmed] Al-Sharaa, we have to take the position that we are going to keep our eyes wide open, that his actions will speak much louder than his words,” declared Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) on “Washington Watch.”

“I talked to Christians on the ground in Syria. While they don’t necessarily point the finger back at Damascus, there’s still harassment towards Christians. … It’s concerning,” he said. “At the same time, [Al-Sharaa] has been taking proper steps, not in every case, but in some cases. … The Druze and Damascus still aren’t communicating. That’s a big concern. … The Kurds, of course, who are great allies of the United States, have integrated their military within the Syrian Defense Forces. … But I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”

“There’s a deep history of dislike and hatred towards one another,” Stutzman explained of the ongoing tensions. “They have to find a way to be Syrians first and not let their tribal histories set in.”

On the same day, the Trump administration also removed Syria from a list of countries prohibited from obtaining American-made weapons systems, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) registry. The arms export ban dated from the old Assad regime, and the country’s reclassification marks “a significant change in its relationship” with the U.S., said Family Research Council President Tony Perkins. The removal of the arms export ban follows the relaxing of trade barriers last year. The only seven countries to remain on the ITAR list are “Belarus, China, Cuba, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, and Venezuela.”

Yet not all is rosy in the nation’s outlook. On Thursday, Reuters reported that Syrian officials secretly met with the Lebanon-based terror group, Hezbollah, in Turkey. Turkey and Syria both denied that any meeting took place. “The sources say Syria pressed Hezbollah to stop cross-border weapons smuggling and dismantle sleeper cells,” Perkins observed, “but then also Hezbollah asked that Syria not get involved in pushing them out of Lebanon. No agreement has been reached.”

“We don’t want Syria to be saddling up to” Turkey, Stutzman exclaimed. “Turkey is moving in the wrong direction. President Erdogan is much more fundamentalist as a Muslim leader. … We’ve been opposing the sale of F-35s to Turkey, even though they’re a NATO ally.”

Syria’s relationships with other powers in the region will undoubtedly affect Israel as well. Thus far, Israel has not developed close ties with the Syrian regime, as decades of mistrust lay between them. However, Hezbollah and Turkey are both clearly aligned against Israel. If Syria aligns with them, that would push Damascus away from Jerusalem. “What we’re really focused on is trying to build the bridges between the United States and Syria, and the bridges between Israel and Syria, and other … Abraham Accord countries,” said Stutzman.

Events can happen quickly in the Middle East, but the conditions they produce can create long-lasting impacts, even long-lasting, low-grade wars. The flurry of events related to Syria this week may pass swiftly, with little effect on the U.S. midterms, but the consequences may not be fully felt until afterward. Meanwhile, the Iran war has certainly played a role in the midterm elections by increasing voter dissatisfaction with high gas prices.

Notably, the outcome of the elections will also impact America’s position in the Middle East, especially regarding “the support that President Trump needs in Congress.” Already, Democrats in Congress have called for repeated votes to condemn the military action against Iran, although the votes have been narrow, and the efforts have been separate. “President Trump is, of course, doing the right thing by eliminating the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard in Iran,” Stutzman said.

However, if Democrats take control of both houses, they could pass through a coordinated resolution that would curtail the president’s power to conduct the war, potentially even forcing him to accept Iran’s terms by refusing the war to go on any longer. “That affects all those other countries,” Stutzman said. “We don’t want any of these countries trying to develop nuclear weapons and create an arms race. And they would not only use that leveraging Israel, but they would also leverage the United States and others.”

If the Middle East seems like a powder keg before the election, just imagine what might happen if Congress decides to raise the white flag and give Iran whatever it wants!