President Donald Trump announced “a Trade Deal between the United States and India” after a Monday phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to the terms Trump set forth on Truth Social, India will reduce its tariff on American products from 13.5% to 0% and buy more American products, while the U.S. would reduce its tariffs on Indian products from 50% to 18%, bringing it in line with the tariff rates negotiated with India’s regional neighbors. But the most important point was that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil,” which Trump said “will help END THE WAR in Ukraine.”

In April 2025, India faced a tariff rate of 26% according to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff rollout, and a tariff rate of 25% was imposed in August. Trump later slapped another 25% tariff on Indian goods because the country was importing discounted Russian oil, which helped fund the war in Ukraine. Indian officials protested that other countries buying even more Russian oil — specifically China — did not receive a punitive tariff.

Despite the steep tariffs, the U.S. imported at least $95 billion in goods and services from India in 2025 (with data through November), and it exported at least $42 billion in goods and services. In 2024, India was America’s 10th-largest trading partner. In 2023, India surpassed China as the most populus country in the world, with a population of more than 1.4 billion people and counting.

Bilateral tariff negotiations had stalled until New Delhi announced a broad trade agreement with the European Union, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the “mother of all deals.” Trump announced the trade deal with India soon afterward.

While details are lacking on the exact shape of the U.S.-India trade deal, it seems evident that the deal will not affect the tariff on every single good. Indian exports like pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics (including nearly $5 billion in smartphones) are already exempt from the Trump tariffs. And, in a recent interview, U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer said that India would maintain protective tariffs on some agricultural goods; rice, beef, soybeans, sugar, and dairy were exempted from India’s trade deal with the European Union.

Thus far, the public only knows about the deal through top-level public statements, not an actual written agreement.

In a parallel announcement, Prime Minister Modi confirmed some of the details mentioned by Trump but omitted others. “Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today,” Modi wrote. “Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.” Yet Modi made no mention of an agreement to buy so many American products, nor to cut off imports of Russian oil.

For its part, the Kremlin claims it has heard nothing about India cutting off Russian oil shipments and would not take such a declaration lying down. “We haven’t heard any statements from Delhi on this matter yet,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “This is the most important thing for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with Delhi.” For decades after its independence, India maintained close relations with the Soviet Union, but it has been more open to the U.S. in recent decades.

Yet, in spite of Russia’s claim, Indian imports of Russian oil have already been declining for months. Russian oil imports dropped 22% from November to December and another 12% from December to January. India now imports 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, compared to 2 million bpd in June 2025.

Even if they lost India’s business, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak boasted the rogue regime could likely find another buyer. “Overall, our energy resource is in demand,” he said. “We see this often. Supply will always find demand, because the balance is maintained.”

Novak failed to mention the fact that Russia is forced to sell its oil at steeply discounted prices to find buyers willing to defy American sanctions and fund its war. On Tuesday, Russia’s Urals oil blend was selling for $27.10 less per barrel than the global oil benchmark, Brent crude (which was selling for $63 to $64 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon).

Novak may be correct that Russia could find another buyer if India stops buying its oil, most likely China, which already imports nearly half of Russian oil exports. But Russia’s list buyers are not endless, and Trump’s pressure on the world’s worst regimes (Iran, Venezuela) may shrink the list even further.

The announcement of a U.S.-India trade deal fills in one of the largest blanks remaining in President Trump’s reshaping of U.S. foreign policy. India is not only the world’s most populous country. It is also a pluralistic democracy that is strategically aligned against China and Islamist terrorism, as National Review’s Jim Geraghty notes.

However, India also remains one of the world’s worst persecutors of Christians, ranking 12th on the 2026 World Watch List produced by Open Doors USA. Much of the persecution is cultural hostility, but the Hindu nationalist government often looks the other way, even when it does not openly endorse or conduct the persecution. Any robust alignment between the U.S. and India should address this Christian persecution, but it did not rank among the topics President Trump said he raised with Prime Minister Modi. Thus far, America’s engagement towards India remains primarily pragmatic, not moral.