Democrats and Republicans have been sparring over a hyper-partisan redistricting measure in Virginia, which, if approved by voters, would strip the GOP of four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, handing Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 congressional districts. According to a new poll, however, Virginia Democrats may not be able to count on voters to approve the redistricting scheme even if legal challenges are resolved in order for the measure to go to a referendum.

A Roanoke College poll released this week found that nearly two-thirds (62%) of Virginia voters favor the state’s current redistricting process, which is managed by a nonpartisan committee. A slim majority (52%) of surveyed voters also reported that they would vote against the redistricting measure should it reach the ballot, while only 44% shared that they would support the effort. “On the redistricting issue that seems to be headed to a referendum, Virginians generally prefer the current system,” commented Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director of Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. “Still, given the partisan ramifications and the Democratic-inspired wording of the question ‘to restore fairness’ to elections, this may not be indicative of the outcome.”

In comments to The Washington Stand, FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter said, “It’s not surprising that Virginians oppose the Democrats’ redistricting effort.” He explained, “Virginia has trended blue in recent years, and it may now be consistently a blue state, but it is not a deep blue state like New York or Illinois. President Trump won 46% of the vote in Virginia in 2024, to then-Vice President Kamala Harris’s 51%.”

Late last month, a Christopher Newport University survey also found that a majority (63%) of Virginians support the state’s current, nonpartisan redistricting process, but reported that just over half (51%) also support the proposed redistricting measure. The survey found that while strong majorities of Republicans (68%), Democrats (61%), and Independent voters (61%) support the nonpartisan redistricting process, Republicans (61%) oppose the General Assembly’s partisan redistricting efforts, while a strong majority (63%) of Democrats and a “bare majority” (51%) of Independent voters support the mid-decade redistricting.

Virginia’s Democrat-controlled General Assembly approved a constitutional amendment earlier this year to allow the legislature to redraw congressional district maps, but the measure needs to go before voters in a referendum before being implemented. The referendum was scheduled for April 21, but a series of legal challenges have threatened to derail the Democrats’ plot. The Virginia Supreme Court agreed earlier this month to hear state Republicans’ challenge against the redistricting, which argued that the measure violated General Assembly rules and constitutionally-required timing requirements. However, the high court gave parties a deadline of April 23 for initial briefs — two days after the scheduled special election, thus allowing the referendum to proceed.

Another lawsuit, filed by national Republican groups and federal Republican lawmakers from Virginia, challenged the legality of the redistricting effort on grounds of the timing of the referendum, which seemingly conflicts with Virginia’s Constitution and the phrasing of the ballot question, which asks voters to “restore fairness” to the state’s congressional maps by giving Democrats 10 U.S. House seats, even though Democrats comprise just over half of registered voters in the state. In response to that lawsuit, Chief Judge Jack Hurley of Virginia’s Tazewell County Circuit Court put the redistricting effort on hold, barring Democrats from proceeding with plans or preparations for the referendum. Virginia’s Attorney General Jay Jones (D) has appealed the injunction to the state’s Supreme Court.

In the face of the high-profile legal challenges against the redistricting referendum, some localities have agreed not to prepare for the vote until a court approves the referendum as constitutionally permissible. Spotsylvania and Patrick counties have already adopted resolutions to put referendum prep on hold, according to Cardinal News, and the Lynchburg City Council nearly adopted a similar resolution but may opt instead to file a petition for declaratory judgment in the Lynchburg Circuit Court, requesting clarification regarding the municipality’s legal responsibilities at this stage in the redistricting confusion.

“Consider that the Virginia Democrats’ redistricting proposal would leave Virginia Republicans with just one out of 11 seats, or 9% of the congressional delegation,” Carpenter observed. “While Virginians await a ruling from the Virginia Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the Democrats’ redistricting effort, they should not waste any time organizing to oppose this ballot initiative should the court side with the Democrat-led legislature and allow it to go forward. It would be poetic if Virginia’s voters were the ones to reject this radical redistricting proposal.”

Under Virginia law, early voting is to begin 45 days before Election Day, which would mean that early voting in the referendum would begin March 6, if the measure is determined to be legal. Hurley’s injunction currently blocks Democrats from conducting and preparing for the referendum until March 18, threatening to derail the referendum’s timeline and potentially ensuring that the constitutional amendment cannot be approved in time to impact the midterm elections in November.