“No one wins when Democrats shut down the government,” Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) declared to Senate colleagues from the floor. Indeed, conventional wisdom, based on decades of experience, holds that government shutdowns create no winners, only losers. The second Trump administration hopes to change that trend by taking a far more aggressive approach to negotiations.

The most obvious loser of every government shutdown is the party that started it. Whether it’s Republicans or Democrats, whether the media provides positive coverage or not, the party that causes a government shutdown by unreasonable demands has always received the blame. American voters can see through the spin, and they show a stronger preference for keeping the government at work than any ideological details of that government’s policy.

As a result, the plotline of a government shutdown is as predictable as a Hallmark movie. The losing side — often either in the minority outright or with control of only one chamber — stakes out a position that forces the shutdown. They bluster for a while (the longest shutdown on record was 34 days), but they notice public opinion solidify against them. After a period of petulance, they eventually cave, gaining nothing for their trouble but the blame for disrupting the government’s funding.

Thus, in the present case, Senate Democrats stand so little chance of success that observers described their decision to shut the government down as “marching forward into a box canyon” before it even started.

Less obvious losers in any government shutdown are the federal workers themselves, who fall into two categories. Many are deemed “essential workers,” which means they are required to show up for work anyway, even though they aren’t getting paid. But many federal workers are furloughed during a shutdown, placing them and their families in a state of financial uncertainty until Congress reaches a resolution. The White House Office of Personnel Management (OPM), in coordination with executive agencies, has broad discretion to determine which employees and services are deemed essential.

While federal employees usually receive “back pay” after the government reopens, they still face troubling uncertainty while the shutdown lasts. In the 34-day-long shutdown over December 2018 and January 2019, federal employees missed out on two consecutive paychecks — by which point they had surely begun to feel pinched. As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt observed this week, federal employees are “real Americans who have families at home.”

If the current shutdown persists for any length of time, federal employees will see part of their pay withheld in mid-October, and their entire paycheck withheld at the end of the month.

Another loser in any shutdown is the American people. At first blush, small-government advocates like yours truly might be inclined to cheer the fact that bureaucrats aren’t working for a period of time. But the reality is that Congress will eventually refund the government, at which point those federal employees will receive back pay for all the hours they didn’t work.

At the request of Ernst, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the shutdown, estimating that “about 750,000 employees could be furloughed each day; the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.” That is, it will cost American taxpayers $400 million per day to pay government employees who aren’t working — for as long as the shutdown lasts.

And much of the work thus postponed is useful, although not “essential.” For instance, due to its furloughed workforce, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the September jobs report on Friday as scheduled.

Even the other party — in this case, the GOP — don’t really “win” a shutdown. House Republicans passed a short-term continuing resolution, giving themselves until November to finish the appropriations process. But, as Democrats dither, House Republicans have gone into recess, meaning that they aren’t working to complete the appropriations process, even though the clock they rewound keeps ticking.

In summary, conventional wisdom concludes that a government shutdown has no winners. It does have losers, and it wastes time for everybody, but nobody benefits.

Enter President Donald Trump, who has spent his first term toppling paradigms and bulldozing obstacles at a breathtaking pace. Trump believes he has a lemonade recipe to suit these particular lemons.

“I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity,” exclaimed Trump on Wednesday. “Republicans must use this opportunity of Democrat-forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud. Billions of Dollars can be saved.”

The first step in Trump’s plan is to lay the blame for a shutdown squarely on Democrats — as any other partisan would do. The official White House has published a “Government Shutdown Clock” showing the length of time, down to the ever-ticking second, for which “Democrats have shut down the government.” For good measure, the White House included statements from more than 50 organizations disapproving of the shutdown.

Executive agencies have followed the chief executive’s lead, publishing their own messages blaming Democrats. For instance, a banner atop the Department of Agriculture’s website reads, “Due to the Radical Left Democrat shutdown, this government website will not be updated during the funding lapse. President Trump has made it clear he wants to keep the government open and support those who feed, fuel, and clothe the American people.”

Trump’s next move was an aggressive innovation. The White House hit back hard at New York City, home to both Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), by tying up “roughly $18 billion” in federal grants for two major infrastructure projects, OPM Director Russ Vought announced Wednesday. These projects included the Gateway Hudson Tunnel Project and an extension of the Second Avenue Subway, both of which have already suffered from years of delays.

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) followed up, explaining that it placed the projects “under administrative review to determine whether any unconstitutional practices are occurring,” related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). However, “USDOT’s quick administrative review” is “another unfortunate casualty of radical Democrats’ reckless decision to hold the federal government hostage to give illegal immigrants benefits,” continued DOT, as “Without a budget, the Department has been forced to furlough the civil rights staff responsible for conducting this review.” NBC News confirmed that the responsible employees have indeed been furloughed.

While the Trump administration did find another pretext for withholding the funds, the timing leaves little doubt that the hold on federal infrastructure funds to New York City projects is related to Democrats forcing a shutdown. Indeed, the DOT explanation explicitly connects them.

The Trump administration plans to become more aggressive still. Last week, Vought directed agencies to prepare “Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees” in programs “not consistent with the president’s priorities.” In a conference-wide call with House Republicans on Wednesday, Vought told them to expect “imminent” and “consequential” layoffs, as OPM determines how to “constitutionally” shrink the federal workforce.

Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed this plan when asked about the layoffs, describing the timing as “two days, imminent, very soon.” The layoffs “likely come with a 60-day notice period,” notes Government Executive, and OPM may revise its layoff plan after the government is funded.

As of Wednesday, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office had already laid off 1% of its workforce, or about 140 people. Leavitt projected layoffs into the thousands.

“What we’ve learned through many cycles of government shutdowns is they never work, [and] they cause a lot of damage,” said Vice President J.D. Vance. “We should take that wisdom [and] open up the government.” The unknown variable in the administration’s plan is how voters will respond. Under typical shutdown dynamics, Democrats set themselves up to take the blame. But an administration has never rolled out such “hardball” tactics, and it remains to be seen what Americans will think of them. It also remains to be seen how long Senate Democrats will hold out before they agree to fund the government.