During a two-hour phone call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, the communist dictator warned the president to approach arms deals with Taiwan with “extreme caution.” The stark language comes as Beijing has steadily increased pressure on the democratic island with aggressive rhetoric and hostile military drills.

Ahead of Trump’s planned trip to China this spring, the U.S. and China leader’s extensive conversation was described by Trump as “very positive” on a host of topics, including Iran, Ukraine, and trade, with the president characterizing America’s relationship with Beijing as “extremely good.” But Chinese state media made clear that the issue of Taiwan was paramount, describing it as “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations” and emphasizing that China “will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China.”

Most pointedly, Xi bluntly told Trump that “The U.S. must handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution,” according to a description of the call by Chinese state media. The remark came in the wake of an $11 billion arms sale to the island that the Trump administration announced in December, which includes hundreds of HIMARS rocket systems, missiles, drones, self-propelled Howitzers, and other equipment (the deal has yet to be finalized through congressional approval).

All signs point to Beijing inching closer to military action in order swallow the democratic island, which has remained unofficially independent of the communist regime since 1949, when Republic of China forces withdrew there after being driven from mainland China by communist forces during the Chinese Civil War. In late December, Beijing undertook its largest military operation yet in the waters surrounding Taiwan, completely encircling the island with 30 naval and coast guard vessels and 201 aircraft. The exercise marked the eighth time the communist regime has conducted large-scale drills around the island since 2022.

In addition, Chinese President Xi Jinping has initiated an unprecedented purge of his top military leaders since 2023, with at least 30 generals and admirals being expelled, disappeared, or put under investigation. Most recently, Xi shocked observers by announcing on January 24 that the country’s top uniformed officer, General Zhang Youxia, along with the military’s chief of staff, General Liu Zhenli, were being investigated for corruption. Analysts say that the move is likely an attempt by Xi to further consolidate his power and remove the last vestiges of resistance within the Chinese military over his desire to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Still, experts like Lt. Col. (Ret.) Bob Maginnis, Family Research Council’s senior fellow for National Security, say that the Trump administration can continue to deter China away from a military takeover of the island through strength and diplomacy.

“If Beijing is pairing conciliatory leader-to-leader optics with increasingly coercive rhetoric and behavior toward Taiwan, the administration’s posture should be clear: steady diplomacy paired with stronger, unmistakable deterrence,” he told The Washington Stand. “Above all, Washington must make explicit — publicly and privately — that Taiwan is not a bargaining chip for trade, climate, or diplomatic concessions.”

Maginnis further argued that the administration should continue to help bolster Taiwan’s military defenses. “The priority should remain capabilities that complicate a People’s Liberation Army assault: mobile air defenses, anti-ship and anti-armor systems, loitering munitions, mines, drones, and resilient command-and-control. The reported $11.1 billion arms package aligns with this strategy, but deterrence depends on fielded capability, not announcements. The hard reality is that the U.S. defense industrial base is overstretched thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war, and rapid delivery is unlikely without difficult choices — either reprioritizing U.S. restocking or delaying deliveries to other long-standing customers.”

Maginnis went on to contend that the U.S. should “deepen allied integration to present a coalition, not a bilateral contest. Deterrence is far stronger when Beijing sees a coordinated regional front. The United States should continue tightening operational access, logistics planning, and joint readiness with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia. Expanded U.S.-Philippines military activity is especially significant given Manila’s proximity to both Taiwan and the Chinese mainland.”

At the same time, he emphasized, “Washington should have a clearly articulated menu of responses to gray-zone pressure — maritime quarantine, missile intimidation, or cyber sabotage — spanning financial penalties, export controls, and diplomatic isolation. Taiwan’s civil resilience must also be strengthened: fuel reserves, ammunition stocks, spare parts, port recovery capabilities, and secure communications. Finally,” Maginnis added, “deterrence must be paired with safeguards against accidental escalation. Hotlines, incident-at-sea protocols, and clear signaling channels are essential to ensure that firmness does not slide into unintended conflict.”

“In short, the administration should pursue calm diplomacy without illusion — backed by visible, credible deterrence that leaves Beijing uncertain of success and confident only of cost,” he concluded.

Other experts were more blunt in their assessment of the Trump administration’s best course of action regarding Taiwan.

“Trump is trying to please the world’s most dangerous aggressor. That’s an impossible task,” Gatestone Institute Senior Fellow Gordon Chang told TWS. “Trump should tell Xi Jinping in no uncertain terms that the United States will defend Taiwan. Xi will blow a gasket, but a clear declaration will keep the peace. The current U.S. policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ will produce only disaster. We have forgotten how Britain and France could have prevented World War II in Europe.”