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Commentary

Venezuela Dictator Will Be Another Headache for Trump

January 12, 2025

Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for another term on Friday. The country’s National Electoral Council (CNE), which he controls, declared Maduro the winner in July, despite significant evidence that he lost the election in July to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. Maduro’s increasingly repressive regime will be another foreign policy headache for President-elect Donald Trump to face as he enters his second, nonconsecutive term.

Maduro has ruled Venezuela since the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013. Together, their socialist policies transformed Venezuela from one of the richest countries in the Western Hemisphere into one of the poorest. Faced with rising discontent among his subjects, Maduro has held onto power through elections that U.S. has condemned as illegitimate.

After a previous sham election in 2017, then-President Trump said he is “not going to rule out a military option” to confront Maduro, refusing to recognize him as the democratically elected leader.

In the 2024 election, Maduro committed even more egregious election violations. First, his government blocked the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from even running in the election (the opposition coalesced behind a different candidate instead, Edmundo Gonzalez). Then, Maduro’s goons intimidated poll-goers with threats of armed violence. After that, the Maduro-controlled CNE declared Maduro the winner by a 51% to 44% margin, without producing the votes to prove this.

Gonzalez’s supporters were able to secure enough ballots to prove that he won the most votes, but Gonzalez had to flee the country to escape arrest. Machado went into hiding for months to escape the secret police. This week, Gonzalez showed these ballots to officials in Argentina and Panama and met with Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor.

Even after steamrolling the opposition’s legitimate claim of victory, Maduro authorized additional brutality to coincide with his inauguration. Maduro operatives intercepted Machado, still a popular figure in Venezuela, as she left a rally in Caracas. According to her political party, Vent Venezuela, “Machado was intercepted and knocked off the motorcycle she was riding. Firearms were fired during the incident. She was taken away by force. During the period of her kidnapping she was forced to record several videos and was later released.”

Maduro’s forces also arrested Gonzalez’s son-in-law, Rafael Tudares, and prominent freedom advocate Carlos Correa.

“We elected by a landslide, a good man [in] Edmundo Gonzalez. We have the proof of that victory, and the whole world knows it,” Machado said earlier this week. “What we need is for all American institutions [to] understand that Venezuela is the most important conflict in the Western Hemisphere for national security of the U.S.”

Trump’s handling of Venezuela could be a signal for how his presidency will unfold. During the first Trump administration, international support for human rights — particularly religious freedom — featured heavily in Trump’s international diplomacy. Trump’s second term will encounter graver national security threats, but it still might make international religious freedom and other human rights a priority.

However, actually removing the Maduro regime and installing a legitimately elected government would require a significant commitment from America. The question will be, would that commitment be worth it? Seen in isolation, many American presidents would likely not consider the removal of a foreign dictator to be worthy of sending American soldiers into harm’s way.

But, if international hostilities deepen, removing Maduro could serve an additional purpose of removing an ally of Russia and China from the Western Hemisphere. As Trump thinks about securing America’s long-term security in Greenland and Panama, this consideration could play a role. Will international relations deteriorate to a point that this proves decisive? Only time will tell.

Joshua Arnold is a senior writer at The Washington Stand.



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