According to new data, Hispanic voters are increasingly abandoning President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party in favor of former President Donald Trump and the GOP. A study released this week by the Pew Research Center found that Democrats have lost their historic edge over Republicans among Hispanic voters.
Although 61% of Hispanic voters either identify as Democrats or lean Democrat and only 35% identify as Republican or lean Republican, that figure represents a 13-point decrease (down from 74%) for Democrats just since 2016. The share of registered voters who are Hispanic has more than tripled since 1996, as has the share of Hispanic voters supporting either party.
Another poll out this week, from Axios/Ipsos, showed that while Hispanic voters still largely identify with the Democratic Party, Biden’s favorability is on the decline and Trump’s is on the rise. Since Biden took office in 2021, his favorability among Hispanic voters has fallen from 53% to 41%, while Trump’s has increased from 24% to 32%. In other words, Biden’s advantage over Trump among Hispanic voters has fallen 20 points, from 29% to a mere 9%. Axios noted, “Biden’s lead shrinks even further — to 3 points — among Latinos who said they plan to vote in November.”
Additionally, while more Hispanic voters felt that the Democratic Party “cares” more about them than the Republican Party, the GOP got higher marks on dealing with the economy and crime. Trump scored significantly higher than Biden on dealing with the economy (42% to 20%), crime (31% to 20%), and even immigration (29% to 22%). Ipsos observed, “The net difference between Biden and Trump on several key statements is smaller than the difference between the Democratic and Republican Party. For example, while the Democratic Party has a 20-percentage point advantage over Republicans on the statement ‘represents people like me,’ Biden only holds a 5-percentage point advantage over Trump.” Notably, the economy/inflation (31%), crime and public safety (30%), and immigration (26%) were ranked as the top issues for Hispanic voters.
Regarding the presidential election in November, 70% of Hispanic voters said that Biden should not be running for reelection (up from 69% in 2022), while only 66% said that Trump should not be running in 2024 (down from 73% in 2022). Ultimately, 31% of Hispanic voters said that they plan to vote for Biden in November, 28% for Trump, 11% for “someone else,” and 28% “unsure.” Two percent did not answer the question.
Over the past several months, numerous polls have shown Trump leading Biden ahead of November, while the incumbent president’s popularity continues to plummet amidst persistent inflation and surging illegal immigration.
Of note, the Pew Research Center’s survey shows that an almost even share of Americans identify as either Democrats or Republicans. Since 2003, Democrats have outnumbered Republicans statistically, sometimes by as much as 10 points. Now, the two are nearly tied, with 49% of the nation identifying as Democrats and 48% identifying as Republicans.
S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.
