". . . and having done all . . . stand firm." Eph. 6:13


Polls Predict Trump Besting Biden in Battleground States

March 22, 2024

Former President Donald Trump is leading incumbent Joe Biden in key swing and battleground states, according to a bevy of recent polls. Four Emerson College/The Hill polls released this week show Trump besting Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Last week, Emerson College/The Hill surveys showed Trump leading Biden in Pennsylvania and Georgia. According to this week’s polls, in a one-on-one contest, Trump is leading Biden 52% to 48% in Arizona and Wisconsin, 51% to 49% in Nevada, and an even narrower 50.3% to 49.7% in Michigan.

When the playing field is broadened to include third-party candidates, Trump still maintains his lead. In Arizona, Trump would lead with 46%, while Biden would garner 38%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6.5%, and Cornel West and Jill Stein less than 2% each, with just over 7% left undecided. In Wisconsin, Trump would lead with just over 43%, Biden would earn just shy of 40%, Kennedy 6%, West, and Stein less than 1% each, and nearly 10% of voters would remain undecided. In Nevada, Trump would lead with 41%, Biden would trail behind with 36%, Kennedy with nearly 9%, West with 2%, and Stein with just about 1%, with 11% of voters left undecided. And in Michigan, Trump would lead with 43%, Biden would take just over 40%, Kennedy less than 5%, West and Stein 1% each or less, and 10% of voters would remain undecided.

Emerson College/The Hill’s surveys last week showed Trump beating Biden 52% to 48% in a head-to-head match in both Pennsylvania and Georgia. When third-party candidates were included as options, Trump maintained his lead in Pennsylvania with 44%, Biden trailed behind at 40%, Kennedy at less than 6%, and West and Stein at 1.2% each, with over 8% of voters left undecided. In Georgia, Trump would keep his 44% top post, but Biden would fall to 37%, and Kennedy, West, and Stein would see almost no change in support, but 10% of voters would be left undecided.

Significantly, Biden’s approval rating is below 40% in all six battleground states polled, with a low of 32.5% in Nevada and a high of 38.7% in Michigan. Additionally, in each state Emerson College/The Hill polled this week — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin — more than half of respondents said that Biden “does not deserve to be re-elected.”

Emerson College/The Hill’s national survey released earlier this month showed Trump and Biden practically tied at 45% each, with 10% of voters left undecided.

Over the past several months, polls have almost unanimously shown Trump beating Biden in a November matchup. A post-State of the Union poll from HarrisX showed the 45th president beating his successor by five points, with 13% undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Trump still lead Biden by four points, 52% to 48%. Once again, when independent and third-party candidates were added to the mix, Trump maintained a strong lead at 41%, with Biden trailing six points behind at 35%, Kennedy at 12%, and West and Stein at about 1% each, with 10% of voters undecided. When undecideds were asked which way they lean, Trump still came out on top at 44%.

Last month’s Harvard CAPS/Harris poll also found that Biden’s popularity across the nation is suffering, with illegal immigration, rampant inflation, skyrocketing crime rates, and a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan ranking among his worst failures as president. Surveyed voters also said they would reelect Trump over Biden 48% to 43%, with 9% of voters undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Trump bested Biden 53% to 47%.

S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.