The continuing saga of the unsuccessful ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia dragged on Friday as Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to appear in person for peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey. Experts say that a ceasefire will not occur until President Trump heightens economic pressure on Russia in order to stoke domestic sentiment against and further isolate Putin’s regime.

Prospects for a ceasefire appeared to brighten last weekend after Putin proposed during a televised address that the two warring nations engage in “direct negotiations.” “We are proposing that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any preconditions,” he stated. “We offer the Kyiv authorities to resume negotiations already on Thursday in Istanbul.”

Zelensky accepted the proposal and arrived in Istanbul for the talks on Thursday, but soon found out that not only would Putin would not be attending in person, “but neither would senior members from the Kremlin.” Delegations representing the two sides, as well as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, did eventually meet on Friday, but the talks ended in less than two hours without any progress. A Ukrainian source later stated that Russia’s demands were “detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed.”

Amid the breakdown in relations between the two sides Thursday, Rubio remarked, “Frankly, at this point, I think it’s abundantly clear that the only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is between President Trump and President Putin. … I don’t think anything productive is actually going to happen from this point forward … until they engage in a very frank and direct conversation, which I know President Trump is willing to do.” For his part, Trump stated on Friday that “we’ve got to get [a ceasefire deal] done,” telling reporters that he will meet with Putin “as soon as we can set it up.”

The war, which has ground on for 39 months after Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation in February 2022, has cost Ukraine the loss of an estimated 105,000 soldiers and 13,000 civilians, with Russian losses estimated to be 300,000 battlefield deaths. Russian troops currently occupy large swaths of eastern Ukraine and are reportedly slowly gaining ground mile by mile further westward into Ukraine with their superior manpower.

In comments to The Washington Stand, Lt. Col. (Ret.) Bob Maginnis, senior fellow for National Security at Family Research Council, contended that Trump must take full advantage of America’s international influence in order to exert it on Putin to agree to a ceasefire.

“Secretary Rubio evidently believes President Trump is a miracle worker,” he observed. “That is understandable given the breathtaking accomplishments in just the first 100 days of the second Trump administration. Likely, the groundwork Trump is laying is the best leverage he can bring to war-ending negotiations with Putin. The Russian remains popular at home despite the ongoing war-related sacrifices in blood and treasure. Likely, that popularity is due to his ability to tap Russian nationalism and spin his portrayal of the West as the aggressor and Ukraine as part of the historic Russian empire.”

“Eventually, Trump and Putin will meet,” Maginnis continued. “President Trump won’t come to such a tête-à-tête until he has ‘the cards,’ an expression he used with Zelensky earlier this year. What Trump means by ‘the cards’ is meaningful leverage. Thus, the question is what leverage Trump might use to persuade Putin to eschew war. Arguably, ‘the cards’ include the price of oil. A radically reduced oil price will arguably drive Putin to the negotiating table because perhaps half of the Kremlin’s cash comes from energy revenues, and it’s also about a quarter of the country’s GDP.”

Maginnis went on to argue that Trump should take advantage of the leverage the U.S. has over Iran to squeeze Putin.

“Another ‘card’ in the equation is the support Putin enjoys from other rogue regimes such as Iran,” he noted. “Trump is quickly putting Tehran back in a box with a host of incentives and threats — bait and switch. Although much of our concern about Iran is its nuclear weapons program, there is also the issue of energy exports to China, which sustain Iran’s economy, and the arms (mostly drones) exports to Russia. Expect before long Iran will begin to turn off arms sales to Russia out of fear that Trump will act to hurt Tehran’s energy sales and perhaps attack its nuclear facilities.”

“The China card is yet another ace for Trump,” Maginnis added. “The president’s tariff program brought Beijing to the negotiating table in Geneva, and then, because China felt the economic pain, it began cooperating with Washington. More broadly, President Xi is concerned about domestic stability, which is threatened by U.S. tariffs. He is not going to continue to support Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine at the expense of China’s economy. Therefore, China will begin to back off from its support of Putin’s war of choice, which will further isolate Russia and create more domestic pressure in Moscow to stop the war.”

“There are likely other cards in Trump’s deck being played with Putin,” Maginnis concluded. “However, the ‘cards’ already mentioned should be sufficient for the Russians to conclude that, for now, at least until Trump leaves the White House, the Ukraine war isn’t delivering on Putin’s long-term ambitions. Rather, it’s time to settle the dispute and let his powder dry.”