More than 1.7 million Californians have fled the state since 2020, but 14 counties show population gains during the same period, according to a new analysis published by the Pacific Research Institute (PRI), a Pasadena-based nonprofit government watchdog.

“From 2020 to 2025, California lost nearly 1.7 million more people due to net domestic migration — meaning that more Americans moved out than in. And this exodus was widespread — 44 of California’s 58 counties were on the losing end. That is real, and troubling. But there is a tiny silver lining. Census data show that 14 of California’s counties had net gains in population over the past five years,” according to the PRI study’s author, John Merline.

Merline dug into the data and found the 14 counties that are gaining new residents even as the rest of California experiences a nation-leading net out-migration. He also sought to understand what factors are shared among the 14 counties that would explain why these jurisdictions are attracting new residents.

When he examined the data on eight potential shared factors — including location, rural vs. urban, age, economics, education, safety, health, and happiness — the numbers varied widely between the 14 population-gaining jurisdictions.

Location didn’t explain the situation, since none of the 14 are on the Pacific Ocean coast, which has for centuries been the chief magnet for people to settle in California. Similarly, there doesn’t appear to be a rural vs. urban factor because, according to Merline, “While many have small populations, not all of them do. The biggest net population gainer was Riverside County, which is the fourth-largest county in the state. San Joaquin is the 14th largest. Plus, several small counties lost population. Siskiyou County (population 43,466) lost nearly 800 to net migration, while Amador County, population 41,428, gained more than 2,400.”

Economic health and education both failed to explain the population growth among all 14 of the counties, because the unemployment rates among them ranged from 4.3% to 10.9%. In addition, every one of the 14 counties’ median family income is below the state average. On the education side of the data, six of the 14 have dropout rates that exceed the state’s average.

There was a wide gulf among the 14 counties on the basis of crime rates, with one county at 48% below the state average and another 34% higher. On the health score, three of the 14 counties are among California’s healthiest and three are among the least healthy.

Not even the factor of happiness explained why the growing counties are gaining more residents. The most recent Gallup survey on the happiness of residents saw five of the 14 ranked in the top half of all California counties, but another one of the 14 registered as the least happy residents in the state.

On the other side of the data equation, Merline did find five characteristics that significant majorities of the 14 counties shared to one degree or another.

• Housing costs were below the state median in all of them. In some cases, well below, ranging from -5.9% in San Benito County to -86.1% in Trinity County. Housing costs in Riverside County are 22% below the state median.
• All but four had a “renters’ affordability index” below the state average.
• All but two had gas prices below the overall state average.
• They all had property crime rates below the state average.

The fifth characteristic, however, appeared to be the most significant of the five, Merline reported. “These counties had one other thing in common. All but two of the 14 counties voted for Trump in the last election, and eight of them have voted Republican consistently for years. The second biggest net population gainer — Placer County (population 442,000 and rising) — hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. The influx of people into San Joaquin County also helped flip it red in 2024.”

The last Republican presidential candidate to receive a majority of Californians’ votes was George H.W. Bush in 1988. In the nine elections since then, Democrats have comfortably swept California, and the state’s congressional delegation includes two Democratic senators and 45 Democratic representatives (nine representatives are Republicans).