Republicans regained control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, flipping seats controlled by a Democrat-turned-Independent in West Virginia and Democrats in Ohio and Montana. “The balance of power in the Senate means a great deal. A lot of people say that’s the safety net for our nation,” said Senator Katie Britt (R-Ala.) on Family Research Council Action’s special Pray Vote Stand Decision Night broadcast. “It’s what our forefathers did to make sure that the Senate was not a supercharged House. … It’s kind of the steadying of the ship, so to speak.”

The Senate map always favored Republicans in this cycle. Democrats had to defend 23 seats, compared to only 11 seats on the Republican side. Before the election, Democrats (and four Independents who caucused with them) only held a 51-49 Senate majority. So, a net gain of one seat for Republicans would result in a tie, and a net gain of two seats would give control of the upper chamber to Republicans.

Not only were Democrats defending more seats, they were also defending many Senate seats in neutral or unfavorable terrain. According to the final, pre-election toss-up map from RealClearPolitics, Democrats were defending six out of seven Senate races rated as “toss-up.” Those states included Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — five of the top seven toss-up states in the presidential race — as well as Ohio (Democrat-held seat) and Texas (held by Republican Ted Cruz). Democrats were also defending Senate seats in Montana and West Virginia, which both heavily favor Republicans at the presidential level.

As of midnight on Tuesday, races were unofficially called for Republican senate candidates in two of the three Republican-leaning states with Democratic senators up for election in Ohio and West Virginia.

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) defeated Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, according to unofficial results on Tuesday night. By midnight Tuesday, Justice led with 68.8% of the vote to Elliott’s 25.1%, with an estimated 52% of the vote reported. Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (I) chose not to run for reelection after spending the past four years protecting the filibuster from fellow Democrats and finally leaving the Democratic party in May.

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R) defeated incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D), according to unofficial results on Tuesday night. By midnight Tuesday, Moreno led with 50.3% of the vote to Brown’s 46.3%, with an estimated 90% of the vote reported. Brown served three terms in the Senate, defeating incumbent Mike DeWine (R) — now Ohio governor — in the 2006 blue wave, surviving a well-funded challenge during President Barack Obama’s reelection in 2012, and triumphing once more in the 2018 blue wave. However, in 2024, Brown could not survive in a GOP-leaning state in a GOP-leaning national environment.

By Wednesday morning, Montana businessman Tim Sheehy (R) had surged ahead of incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D) 53.2% to 45.0% and was declared the winner with 88% of the vote counted. The Montana senate seat is the third pickup for Republicans, which has given them a 52-seat majority so far.

In what might be the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a Senate seat in the 2024 election, left-leaning independent Dan Osborn gave a surprisingly strong challenge to Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). However, Fischer had pulled ahead by midnight, and the race was unofficially called in her favor shortly thereafter.

Democrats are defending competitive senate seats in five key battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The races remained close as of midnight on Tuesday:

• In Pennsylvania, David McCormick (R) led incumbent Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D) with 51.2% of the vote to 48.8%, with an estimated 78% of the vote reported.
• In Wisconsin, Eric Hovde (R) led incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) with 49.9% of the vote to 48.1%, with an estimated 74% of the vote reported.
• In Michigan, Mike Rogers (R) led Elissa Slotkin (D) with 48.7% of the vote to 48.4%, with an estimated 47% of the vote reported.
• In Arizona, Ruben Gallego (D) led Kari Lake (R) with 52.3% of the vote to 45.9%, with an estimated 54% of the vote reported.
• In Nevada, no information about vote counting was available.

Whether the vote margins from Election Night will hold depends heavily on where the remaining, uncounted votes are located. According to Decision Desk HQ, Democrats are still favored to win each of these races, suggesting that many of the uncounted votes will aid Democrats.

If Democrats do pull ahead in these races, Republicans will hold a narrow majority in the U.S. Senate of either 51-49 or 52-48, based on the result in Montana. Family Research Council President Tony Perkins said this a typical result for the Senate. “The Senate has gone back and forth between [parties], 52-48, 46-54. It’s just been very, very close for decades,” he said.

However, even a narrow Republican majority in the Senate could have significant impacts.

“There [are] a lot of different things that would happen if Democrats maintain control,” Britt warned. “[Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer has vowed, ‘If I keep the Senate, I will break the filibuster.’ He will do that, obviously, as he has said, to reinstate Roe. … The next thing that they would do would be to make Puerto Rico and D.C. a state. They also want to pack the Supreme Court.”

“Breaking the filibuster for these different legislative items would ultimately change the face of our nation and the way that our forefathers saw it and would also cause a real jarring of … back and forth,” added Britt. “But so many of these things, particularly the packing of the Supreme Court, could have implications for generations to come.”

This is a developing story...