Right now, every member of the Federal Reserve Board must feel like one of the X-wing pilots in the climactic finale of “Star Wars, Episode IV: A New Hope.” They are cruising down a seemingly endless canyon of economic facts and figures, their targeting computer locked in on a single objective — evading the inflationary effects of tariffs — while political and media flak is fired upon them from all sides. Even the slightest deviation from their course — either to the right or the left — will abruptly terminate their mission in a fiery explosion of popular anger, while the chance that they will be sniped from behind before their target comes in view is far greater than zero percent.

The cause of this dramatic tension is yet another month of economic statistics that disappoint merely for their unseemly calmness. As investors worry over the potential impact of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, April’s inflation report arrived and seemed — what’s the word — normal?

It might be too soon after the Great Inflation Spike of 2022 to justify that word, but the numbers are gradually approaching the soft landing (at an average annual inflation rate of 2%) the Federal Reserve hoped to achieve.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% over the past months, down from 2.4% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday, a statistic marking the smallest increase since February 2021. Meanwhile, a so-called measure of “core” inflation, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, stands slightly higher at an annual increase of 2.8%.

But that’s only one side to the story. Measured by year, inflation continues to decline. Measured by month, inflation actually rose considerably. April saw a 0.2% increase from March, after March saw a decline of 0.1% (core inflation rose 0.2% in April, compared to rising 0.1% in March). By either measurement, these numbers are fair to middling — a potential exclamation snuffed out by a yawn.

According to economists, these numbers were either right on target for expectations or perhaps a little low, depending on which economists one asks. According to CNN, “economists expected that the CPI would rise 0.3% from March,” so an increase of only 0.2% was “an unexpected and welcome development.” The Wall Street Journal called the 2.3% CPI increase “less than expected,” while the 2.8% increase in core CPI was “as expected.” Overall, the CPI report gave no signals that economists and businesses should move out of their holding patterns.

Before Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, the U.S. GDP declined slightly in the first quarter, while inflation was negative. TWS wrote at the time that “the U.S. economy is crouched and waiting” to see what effect tariffs would have.

The truth is, April’s CPI report contained little news at all, good or bad. This means the economy remains in its crouch. As anyone will discover when playing hide-and-seek with a two-year-old (who are astonishingly poor “seekers”), remaining in a crouch becomes uncomfortable rather quickly. Thus, BNP Paribas economist Andy Schneider confessed, “You can’t take a lot of comfort in this report. There are a lot of worrying factors telling us inflation will strengthen going forward.”

Economists expect rising prices from tariffs to hit soon. When it does not arrive, that simply tells them the price hikes have been delayed. In part, this is because the tariffs themselves have been delayed or postponed in many cases. In part, it is also due to inventory and supply chain factors; it may take weeks or months to exhaust the pre-tariff supply of goods.

Perhaps the broadest measure of investor reaction is stock markets. The Wall Street Journal reported that “markets were muted” in response to April’s CPI numbers. By contrast, “U.S. stocks had soared the day before after the U.S. and China announced that they would pause severe tariffs on each other’s goods.”

For now, Federal Reservists have nothing to do but keep a steady course down the center of a narrow canyon, racing against the clock to glimpse that all-important exhaust port.