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Commentary

Israel Sustains Multi-Front War while Mulling Iran Counterstrike

October 3, 2024

As the Israeli war cabinet is mulling their options to respond to Iran’s barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles that targeted the small country on Tuesday, there are plenty of other matters that demand their urgent attention. Israel is “involved in the near combat in Lebanon, they’re still cleaning up Gaza, and now they have a law enforcement action in [Judea and Samaria], and they still have Houthis firing rockets at them from Yemen,” listed Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) on “Washington Watch” Wednesday. Managing so many fronts at once requires Napoleonic organization and strategy.

Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are primarily focused on Operation Northern Arrows, an incursion into southern Lebanon designed to neutralize the threat from the Iranian-backed terrorist outfit Hezbollah, so that residents of northern Israel can return to their homes for the first time in nearly a year. Judging by the evacuation notices they have issued to Lebanese civilians, Israeli forces are advancing steadily, and their airstrikes based on excellent intelligence have nearly obliterated Hezbollah’s command structure.

Syria

Related to their fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel also continues to carry out airstrikes in Syria. The IDF aims to prevent all weapons shipments from Iran to Hezbollah, which must pass through Syria. An Israeli airstrike in Damascus on Monday injured nine and killed three, including a “consultant” for the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the arm of the Iranian government that coordinates international terrorist activities. Another Israeli airstrike in Damascus on Wednesday struck a hideout frequented by Hezbollah and IRGC officials, killing two. In recent weeks, Israeli airstrikes have killed and wounded dozens of people (probably almost exclusively terrorists) across Syria.

However, Israel’s latest strike in Syria may be the boldest strike yet — and the most under-reported. Overnight into Thursday, Israel allegedly struck a weapons depot in Jableh, inside Russia’s Khmeimim Airbase. Reportedly, Syrian and Russian anti-air defenses unsuccessfully engaged the aerial strike.

Judea and Samaria

Further south, Israel launched raids last month to dismantle terror cells in Judea and Samaria (sometimes called the West Bank). Two terrorists from Hebron, a city in southern Judea, illegally entered Israel and opened fire on a commuter train in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Hamas claimed credit for the attack, which killed seven and injured 16. Among the dead were multiple children and a mother who shielded her nine-month-old infant with her body.

Gaza

Meanwhile, things are not all quiet on the Western Front (the Gaza Strip). The IDF has wound down their most aggressive operations after dismantling all Hamas units offering resistance on the surface. But they continue to comb through Hamas’s elaborate tunnel network, searching for the remaining hostages and remaining terrorists, including top Hamas commander Yahya Sinwar.

The IDF recently announced the deaths of three Hamas officials who were “hiding in a fortified and equipped underground compound in northern Gaza.” These include Rawhi Mushtaha, head of Hamas government in Gaza, Sameh al-Siraj, Hamas’s security and labor secretary, and Sami Oudeh, commander of Hamas’s general security mechanism. Announcing terrorist deaths so long after the fact is not common practice for the IDF. Presumably, announcing these deaths now means either that Israel recently discovered their bodies or recently obtained intelligence allowing them to identify the bodies.

Yemen

Fortunately for Israel, the long-range Yemen front is the least active right now. If the Houthis had coordinated their own powerful cruise missiles with Iran’s ballistic missile barrage, that could have put extra stress on Israel’s missile defense system. However, after launching several missile strikes at Israel, the Houthis have confined themselves to the occasional pot shot, which provokes a proportionate counterstrike from Israel.

The Houthis’ lack of interest in Israel may be due to their more intriguing pastime: piracy. Due to their strategic location by the Red Sea shipping route, the Houthis are strategically placed to disrupt maritime trade, and their Iranian overlords seek to exploit this strategic advantage against Western nations aligned with Israel (not to mention Israel, which would otherwise see much larger shipping costs for goods from just about anywhere).

Just on Tuesday, the Houthis damaged two civilian ships in the Red Sea. They exploded a remote-controlled boat against the side of an oil tanker sailing under the flag of Panama and struck a Liberian-flagged cargo ship with a missile.

In secret talks brokered by Iran, Russia is reportedly considering whether to sell the Houthis their advanced, anti-ship P-800 missiles. The P-800 missiles are “a far more capable system than the anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles the Houthis have used so far,” according to a ballistic missile expert, and having these weapons would allow them not only to hit more civilian vessels, but even target American and British warships that patrol those waters to keep them safe for cargo ships.

Israel’s front with the Houthis is relatively quiet, but the Houthis’ superior capabilities, relative to other terror groups, makes it a perpetually dangerous one nevertheless.

Iran

All these roads lead back to Iran, the state sponsor for the various terror groups attacking Israel. Iran injected itself forcefully into its proxy war on Tuesday, when it launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel from within its own territory. Netanyahu has vowed to respond, and the likeliest targets appear to be Iran’s oil production, missile launch sites, or nuclear capabilities, Self suggested.

“I do not believe he will start with the nuclear sites,” proposed Self. That might depend on how close Iran was to obtaining a nuclear weapon, which “I suspect that Israel knows far better than we do.”

However, due to the number of enemies Israel must confront, and the possibility that Iran could launch another missile barrage at Israel, Self said, “I think [Netanyahu] will try to degrade their launch sites as much as he can — realizing they have mobile launchers — and he may take out some of their oil production.”

In any event, Self predicted that Israel’s counterstrike would likely be “serious,” not “proportional,” in the Biden administration’s impotent sense of the word.

The Diplomatic Front

Sadly, not all the fronts Israel is fighting on are against enemy combatants carrying arms. They must also wage a diplomatic and propaganda war just to extract the minimum amount of cooperation from the U.S. Fighting a multi-front war is easier when you don’t also have to fight a diplomatic war with your primary ally.

The Biden administration has “been slow-rolling their support for Israel ever since the October 7th attack,” Self complained. It’s “very clear that they are not supporting Israel as the U.S. has traditionally done.” Family Research Council President Tony Perkins agreed, noting that “most of [Biden’s] limiting language is focused on Israel.”

On the other hand, the Biden administration has loosened sanctions on Iran, allowing the hostile regime to more easily finance its war of terror against Israel. “Iran was broke when Trump left office. They now have almost $100 billion in reserves,” said Self.

On Monday, the U.S. announced an additional $336 million in humanitarian assistance for residents of the Gaza Strip, Judea, and Samaria. That brings the total aid the U.S. has supplied to Palestinian-controlled regions since October 7 to more than $1 billion, and most of that ended up in the hands of terrorists.

“We need to break loose the supply” of weapons to Israel, argued Self, “because if Iran and Israel do go to major fisticuffs — a major war — they’re going to need our support. And they’re going to need it now.”

“A great suite of air-defense systems: Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow, and they’re doing a magnificent job. But if you go to a major regional war, it’s going to require more,” Self continued. “Those are Israeli products,” while the U.S. supplies Israel with “more mundane military supplies,” ranging from “production of the actual rounds” of ammunition to bunker-busting bombs.

The IDF “put like 80 of those [bombs] on top of [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah, and they dug that hole deep to go get him. So, if they’re using them 80 at a time to get one of the leaders, they’re going to use them up faster and we’re going to have to resupply them,” he explained.

“Frankly,” Self added, “I believe the [Iranian] Ayatollah [Ali Khamenei] is probably in a bunker somewhere waiting his turn.” Indeed, after the strike on Nasrallah, Iranian officials have reported that Khamenei “no longer trusts anyone” and is gripped by paranoia.

Israel has discovered a successful way to fighting a multi-front war against terrorists: hit them where they sleep.

Joshua Arnold is a senior writer at The Washington Stand.



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