If Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) thought a two-vote majority was tough, try none. That’s the hand Republicans will be dealt after Donald Trump is sworn in next January, and the void of former Congressman Matt Gaetz, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) will be most sharply felt. “Do the math,” the speaker told reporters Wednesday. “We have nothing to spare.” 

That’s a daunting prospect for a caucus that hasn’t exactly been on the same page when it comes to legislative strategy. Even with perfect attendance — a grade-school goal that will become the highest priority now — a single Republican could make or break the success of the GOP’s ambitious first 100-day agenda. For conservatives who survived the non-stop drama of the 118th Congress, the thought is a sickening one.

For Democrats, who outperformed expectations in the House, netting one more seat than Republicans certainly puts them in a better negotiating seat. This is all thanks, FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter explained, to California’s 13th Congressional District, which was the last race to be called. “I don’t know if a little extra turkey slowed down the vote there at the end in California,” he joked with Family Research Council President on Wednesday’s “Washington Watch,” but … this is the last race from election night that we were tracking, and Democrat Adam Gray prevailed over Republican incumbent John Duarte in that race [by] a breathtaking 187 votes.”

Carpenter thinks the squeaker of a race “beats the record from the last election, when Lauren Boebert won by just over 200 votes.” Unfortunately for the blood pressure of both parties, “The races seem to be getting closer and closer nowadays.”

Perkins pointed out that the margin is smaller than the average church size in California. “Think about that for just a moment. One church could actually make the difference in the outcome of one of these congressional races.” And while a lot of churches have a great ground game, especially in the Golden State, Carpenter explained, “It’s just more evidence that all [of] that work is needed, [and] there’s more of it that needs to be done as we look to the 2026 midterms already. It’s [almost] election season. It never ends.” 

From January until April’s special elections, Republicans will have “the exact number you need for a majority.” What this all means, Matt continued, is that “any additional drop-offs at this point will be problematic.” In other words, “You can’t have a sick day. You can’t have a member miss their flight,” he said. An unexpected funeral, COVID case, or accident would jeopardize whatever bill the leadership is moving. “Things get really hairy at that point,” Carpenter warned. “It’s going to make the operations of the House that much more difficult.”

The speaker, who’s only known razor-thin margins in his young tenure, took questions Wednesday on the predicament of his new House. “We’ve developed an expertise in that,” he half-joked. “We know how to work with the small majority. That’s our custom.” He did stress that there were still recounts taking place, but if that doesn’t move the needle, he acknowledged that the final number will look closer to 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. “And when three of our colleagues depart in the early part of the year, joining the administration or [after resigning], it’ll be 217 to 215.” So it’s no picnic, he admitted. “But all of our members know that. We talked about that today, as we do constantly, that this is a team effort [and] we’ve got to all row in the same direction.”

The same goes, he underscored, for Senate Republicans — who have a bit more cushion but will still need to link arms when debates get down to the wire. “I spent time yesterday with the Senate Republicans at their working lunch in the session they had and talked with them frankly about that in unified government. We’re all the exact same team. This isn’t varsity, junior varsity. This is everybody on the varsity team together — Senate Republicans, House Republicans. And we have to think that way and operate that way.”

In the meantime, Florida is eyeing a January 28 kickoff to the special primaries, followed by an April 1 election. “All three Republicans who will be leaving Congress ran in safe districts,” Matt noted, but then, with the amount of money both sides will be spending on the campaigns, anything is possible. “I anticipate they’ll get back up to 220, but we’ll see.”

The new chair of the Republican Study Committee (RSC), Texas Rep. August Pfluger, is clear-eyed about the challenges. “You’re right,” he told Perkins on “Washington Watch” after the final result was in. “We do have a slim majority. But I kind of look at that as an opportunity — especially for the RSC to be the gatekeeper, to be the communicator, the educator. … I mean, this really is the only meeting where Republicans have a substantive policy discussion on a weekly basis. And early on in our time in January, border security, energy security, budget reconciliation [will be the focus] — the things that the American people expect us to get done quickly. I think the RSC will play a pivotal role in not only holding meetings where we’re discussing and debating and having dialogues on that policy, but also unifying that slim majority, getting behind good conservative policy and gaining the trust of the American people. I’m excited about the opportunity.”

Most everyone is hopeful that having Trump in the White House will stop the party’s troublemakers from making Johnson’s life miserable this time around. “I think you’re less likely to see a whole lot of, quote-unquote, bucking the system because Trump is [in charge].” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) agreed, pointing out that there were a lot of hard-liners who “might have been important last [Congress] but will vote yes if Trump tells them to.” It was an ironic statement coming from someone who did his share of defecting.

Maybe, Pfluger wondered out loud, being forced into a situation like this will be good for Republicans. “Honestly, when you don’t have a lot of extra … congressmen and women [to bolster your majority], then you really have to be surgical about your approach. You really have to be focused. You really have to understand what it is legislatively and policy-wise that’s going to get us to that mission accomplishment. And I think it is going to be historic,” he predicted. “I think we are going to accomplish the mandate, and I do believe that we are going to look back on the 2025 to 2027 period of time as one of the greatest legislative and governing periods in the history of our country. I’m very confident in that.”

At the end of the day, he stressed, discernment will be key. “We really need to pray to make sure that we’re tackling the right issues, to get to the heart of the things that are preventing our country and preventing our citizens and preventing Americans from our full potential. So that’s the prayer that I would ask for. It’s the same prayer that I pray for myself and for other leaders.”