After two months of negotiation, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a budget resolution (H.Con.Res.14) that House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) estimates will result in $2.6 trillion in savings over the next 10 years. The vote marks “the kickoff in what will be a four-quarter game,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said ahead of the vote, “and that very important, very consequential game begins as soon as we get this thing passed.”

Even after so much negotiation, House Republican leaders were holding discussions with reluctant members “all the way through the close of the vote,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.). “This morning, I was counting about 4 or 5 no votes, so the vote would not have passed this morning,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said on “Washington Watch” before the Tuesday night vote.

“I know that the speaker has been working with the members that have concerns about their concerns and how to address them,” Perry added. “I think they are valid concerns. But … this is not the end of the process. It’s actually just kind of the beginning of the process. And so, to do anything, this is where we’ve got to get off the dime.”

The final vote tally was 217-215, with all Republicans voting for the bill except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who joined the Democrats in opposing it. Republicans could afford to lose Massie’s vote because three Democratic representatives were absent.

The budget resolution declares Congress’s intention to cut spending by $2 trillion and extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts — set to expire this year. On paper, extending the tax cuts would cost the government $4.5 trillion in lost revenue over the next decade, thus increasing the deficit.

However, House Republicans hope the tax cuts will stimulate enough economic growth to save money in the long run. Using one set of economic assumptions, the Congressional Budget Office projected economic growth at an annual average of 1.8%, while House Republicans projected 2.6% economic growth, based upon different assumptions.

If the Trump tax cuts are made permanent, the House Ways and Means Committee predicted one million new jobs created by small businesses, $150 billion in economic growth from small businesses, $284 billion in economic growth from American manufacturers, and $50 billion in economic growth from Opportunity Zones in poor communities.

By contrast, if Congress allows the Trump tax cuts to expire, the Committee predicted six million jobs lost, along with a 22% tax hike for the average taxpayer, while the child tax credit, the guaranteed deduction, and the death tax exemption for family-owned farms would be cut in half.

The budget resolution is not the budget itself, but simply an agreement about how much spending to cut, and from which committees. Legislative committees will still have to decide where and how to cut spending over the coming months. For instance, the budget resolution requires the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find $880 billion in cost savings over the 10-year period.

Congressional Democrats have turned this into a point of attack, accusing Republicans of planning to cut Medicaid and Medicare, since those programs belong to this committee’s portfolio. “Republicans are literally going to gut the insurance program that covers millions of children and seniors,” declared Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). “This will mean rural hospitals will close, nursing homes will shut down, addiction treatment centers will close their doors, and the most vulnerable will die because of the Republican budget.”

“People keep saying it’s $880 billion in Medicaid [cuts.] It’s not going to be $880 billion in Medicaid,” replied House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.). Instead, Speaker Johnson said Republicans plan to root out the “fraud, waste, and abuse” that occurs within Medicaid. According to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), improper payments from its programs totaled more than $50 billion in a single year, fiscal year 2024.

The budget resolution now heads to the U.S. Senate, which passed its own budget resolution last week as a “backup” to the House plan. “If they pass the bill that’s before the House, it will not pass the Senate without changes,” Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on “Washington Watch” before the House vote. “Send it to the Senate, and we will change it in a way to make it more compliant with President Trump’s vision of the tax cuts.”

Graham explained that the House resolution simply extended the Trump tax cuts for another eight years, while “President Trump wants the tax cuts of 2017 to be permanent. So do I. That’s good for the economy.” The Senate version would also address taxes on tips and Social Security payments, he said. “It will come to the Senate,” Graham described. “We’ll change it. Then we’ll have a conference.”

But, “I applaud Mike Johnson for getting the bill this far,” Graham added. “Mike Johnson is dealing with a one-vote majority.”