Whether Republicans or Democrats will control the U.S. House in the next Congress was still undetermined by midday on the Wednesday following Election Day. Republicans held a narrow advantage (210-194) but neither party had attained the necessary 218 seats needed for a majority, with only 32 races left to call, based on races called by DecisionDeskHQ.

As of Wednesday afternoon, DecisionDeskHQ was projecting a narrow Republican victory of five seats (222-213) in the U.S. House.

Before votes were tallied, Family Research Council Action identified a list of 16 key U.S. House Districts where results would likely indicate control of the next Congress. Those seats are nearly evenly split.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, DecisionDeskHQ had called seven of those races for the Democrat (AZ-04, IN-01, MI-08, NC-01, NM-02, OH-13, and VA-07) and three races for the Republican (MI-07, PA-10, and VA-02). Meanwhile, the Republican candidate led in the other six races (AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-22, CA-27, PA-08, and WA-04), but only by a few thousand votes. In these undecided races, as little as 54% of the votes had been counted.

In one of those key races, incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) eked out a slim victory after scoring an endorsement from the Family Research Council Action PAC. Perry had 203,460 votes (50.8%) to challenger Janelle Stelson’s (D) 197,048 votes (49.2%) when DecisionDeskHQ called the race for Perry on Wednesday — a lead of only 6,412 votes (1.6%).

In most races where FRC Action PAC endorsed a candidate, the results were not nearly as close. FRC Action PAC endorsed 66 candidates for the House in the 2024 election, as well Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey (R). As of Wednesday afternoon, 66 of those 68 candidates had won their races, with two races for the U.S. House of Representatives left to be called by DecisionDeskHQ.

In California’s 27th congressional district, another key race mentioned above, FRC Action PAC endorsed Rep. Mike Garcia (R), who had 113,527 votes (51.2%) to challenger George Whitesides’s (D) 108,165 votes (48.8%), with 71% of the vote counted on Wednesday afternoon.

In Maryland’s 6th congressional district, FRC Action PAC endorsed Neil Parrott (R), who had 60,060 votes (46.0%) to April McClain Delaney’s (D) 70,498 votes (54.0%), with only 36% of the vote counted on Wednesday afternoon.

With the possible exceptions of Garcia and Parrott, all candidates endorsed by FRC Action PAC in 2024 won their respective races.

With victories in the presidential election and key Senate races, retaining their hold on the U.S. House of Representatives would give Republicans a governing trifecta, which they have not had since the beginning of President Trump’s first term in 2017-2018. Democratic control of the U.S. House would return to the partisan division of 2019-2020.

Whichever party takes control of the U.S. House, their majority will likely be only a handful of seats, increasing the power of small groups of legislators in intra-party negotiations. “As the last two years have amply demonstrated, this is not a recipe for a functioning majority,” remarked National Review’s Noah Rothman.

However, narrower House majorities may become the new norm. The 2010s saw remarkable landslide swings due to a high number of competitive seats. However, in redistricting after the 2020 census, many state legislatures opted to prioritize safe seats over competitive ones, thus shrinking the field of competitive districts that can be held or taken in any given election. Congressional majorities may just have to learn how to function — and behave themselves — within slimmer margins.

This is a developing story…