States where the Republican presidential candidate received more support produced more babies than states that supported the Democrat — and religious faith plays a vital role in reversing their baby bust, a new study has found.
“Republican states (those that Trump won in 2020) generally have markedly higher fertility rates than Democratic ones (those that Biden won), suggesting that more men and women feel confident about starting and raising families in red states than blue ones,” concluded a study titled “Where Are the Babies? In Red States, Fertility Rates Are Higher” by Brad Wilcox and Michael Pugh of the Institute for Family Studies (IFS).
The authors cite three factors which may explain the higher fertility levels in conservative states: economic prosperity, culture, and faith.
The study notes the booming economies of Republican-leaning states, which tend to pare back regulations, cut taxes, and let families keep more of their hard-earned income. That dovetails with research finding American couples have historically had fewer children during economic downturns. Only three of U.S. News and World Report’s top 10 states with the best economies supported Kamala Harris in 2024 (Colorado, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire).
Even families in blue states are increasingly leaving for red-state America, notes IFS. “Blue states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020 lost 213,000 families in 2021 and 2022 (a 0.7% net decline), while red states that voted for President Trump in both elections gained 181,000 families (a 0.6% net gain),” write Wilcox and Lyman Stone.
The new study’s authors also credit the “family friendly culture of many red states” for the baby boom. In a separate study released the next day, Wilcox found that “Republicans continue to enjoy significantly happier marriages and somewhat more stable families with children than Democrats.” Even Republicans who had been divorced were more likely to remarry than divorced Democrats. Additionally, “family-minded conservatives see the Left in general and the Democratic Party in particular as much less likely to value the institution of marriage — and the virtues that sustain it — than they once were, even compared to the beginning of the twenty-first century. For instance, most progressives today do not think that ‘children are better off if they have two married parents,’ even though the science points clearly in the other direction.”
But the authors reconfirm numerous studies showing people who believe in God have greater optimism about the future — and are more likely to raise the children who will shape it.
“[M]any red states, especially ones where religious faith is strong (like Utah), prioritize the value of getting married and focusing on your family rather than putting most of your eggs in the baskets of work and self,” wrote Wilcox and Pugh. “Evidence suggests that religious fathers and husbands — more likely to be found in red states — prioritize marriage and family life, including housework, in ways that make family life more appealing to the women in their lives.”
Their conclusions fly in the face of those who claim European-style welfare state benefits aid fertility. For instance, Naomi Cahn and June Carbone had contended that Democratic policies better support families in their book “Red Families v. Blue Families: Legal Polarization and the Creation of Culture.” But IFS has found that economic liberty, a pro-family culture, and religious faith make Americans more likely to settle down and find lasting happiness.
The U.S. hit an historic new low birthrate of 1.62 in 2022, the CDC announced in April. In an online video, The Daily Citizen highlighted the fact that, even in red states, “only South Dakota meets the replacement level of 2.1 birth.”
Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has said the Republican Party “should be pro-family in the fullest sense of the word … to make it easier for moms to afford to have babies [and] easier for young families to afford a home so they can have a place to raise that family.”
Ben Johnson is senior reporter and editor at The Washington Stand.